Chicago Storm Posted Monday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:44 PM NOW it won’t happen. 1 2 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted Monday at 06:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:45 PM The kiss of death here The AI model seems to have a good beat on this one. Pretty consistent with the lead wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted Monday at 06:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:53 PM 7 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: The kiss of death here The AI model seems to have a good beat on this one. Pretty consistent with the lead wave I see the AI model referenced frequently. Is this publicly available or behind a paywall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted Monday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:03 PM 2 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: I see the AI model referenced frequently. Is this publicly available or behind a paywall? If it's at all helpful, I know that Tropical Tidbits offers some euro AI data with Pivotal Weather having a more extensive selection of publicly available products, including basic snowfall output for the euro AI and maybe its ensemble. https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf_aifs/sn10_acc-imp/conus?run=2025112412&forecastHour=156 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Monday at 08:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:01 PM Funny GFS was the one being aggressive with this before and euro not as much now gfs barely has anything and Euro has really uptrended. Definitely keeping my expectations low. At least we got an active pattern ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Monday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:10 PM IWX favoring the foreign solutions early on. Friday through Monday... Some lake effect is likely to linger into Friday, possibly briefly shifting into NW Indiana for a period until the low level ridge axis finally passes through Friday night in response to the next area of low pressure taking shape. While models remain in agreement on a baroclinic zone establishing itself across the area over the weekend, timing and ptype issues persist, leading to an uncertain forecast for those likely travelling home from the holiday weekend. EC/GEM brings in precipitation during the day Sat with temp profiles cold enough for all snow through Sat night before shifting east. GFS delays precip till at least Sunday and maybe not till Monday, which would suggest more of a mix to possibly all rain. The current forecast leans towards the faster solution at this time with likely pops Sat/Sat night. As would be expected this far out, confidence in finer details is not overly high but worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted Monday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:17 PM 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: NOW it won’t happen. “Potential”is the key word. Your maturing as a forecaster and have learned the 3 key letters of good forecasting CYA. It’s been a pleasure watching you grow through the years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Monday at 10:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:14 PM GFS still not playing nice on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted Monday at 10:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:24 PM 11 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: GFS still not playing nice on 18z It's definitely at least a slight reversal though, right? I would say (just looking at my blues and greens ofc) that the front end of this threaded event looks a bit stronger and the possible follow-up event is also back. The overall synoptic evolution looks somewhat closer to what other models are showing. Combined with what chi storm was saying that's good enough for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Monday at 10:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:36 PM 10 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: It's definitely at least a slight reversal though, right? I would say (just looking at my blues and greens ofc) that the front end of this threaded event looks a bit stronger and the possible follow-up event is also back. The overall synoptic evolution looks somewhat closer to what other models are showing. Combined with what chi storm was saying that's good enough for me Yeah follow up storm on edge of waa snows is just more west and north so draws up a big slug of warm air so precip goes all liquid. Euro further south with baroclinic zone and develops low much further south and cuts it more east. Allows for good waa snows than a nice wraparound with low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Tuesday at 12:50 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:50 AM 18z Euro a little further north again. Totals around N. IN and SW. MI includes the lake effect from Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted Tuesday at 01:24 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:24 AM If that L can eject out of the Rockies a bit quicker , it can catch up, be a bit flatter and ride that lead wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted Tuesday at 02:00 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:00 AM 1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said: 18z Euro a little further north again. Totals around N. IN and SW. MI includes the lake effect from Thursday. Would be rare indeed to see that kind of snowfall this early. Though I guess we all know to slash ratios at this time of year. Positive would be this type of event falls into a number of winter projections this year. So perhaps it’s a tell. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Tuesday at 02:13 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:13 AM 11 minutes ago, Baum said: Would be rare indeed to see that kind of snowfall this early. Though I guess we all know to slash ratios at this time of year. Positive would be this type of event falls into a number of winter projections this year. So perhaps it’s a tell. Yea, I was thinking that based solely on climo, the rain/snow line ends up much further north than currently forecast. Not a bad look, though, for late November. As you say, hopefully a sign of good things to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Tuesday at 04:09 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:09 AM GFS is a step in the right direction. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted Tuesday at 04:20 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:20 AM Good runs on both the gfs and gem 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Tuesday at 04:52 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:52 AM 0z gfs for $500 Alex. Wowza. Multiple waves. If only we could lock that in now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
migratingwx Posted Tuesday at 05:52 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:52 AM 00z Euro held course for Chicago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
migratingwx Posted Tuesday at 06:06 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:06 AM With snowcover, Euro puts O'Hare at -1°F next Monday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted Tuesday at 08:40 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:40 AM 2 hours ago, migratingwx said: 00z Euro held course for Chicago. different solution than GFS..but same outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted Tuesday at 12:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:08 PM Cruel overnight runs sounds like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted Tuesday at 01:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:30 PM ICON feels more realistic, talking completely out of my arse. Whatever has the lowest totals. Also rain nosing northward on Euro after the early thump so there’s that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted Tuesday at 01:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:49 PM Quote The above is just to give a rough idea of the spectrum of outcomes, which range from a light to moderate event on some of the guidance members, to a bonafide snowstorm on a surprisingly large % of members. Can`t ignore this despite it being far out LOT AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Tuesday at 01:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:55 PM 6z Euro held serve and the 6z GFS was another step in the right direction. Warm air nudging in too far north is definitely a concern moving forward, but so far, so good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted Tuesday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:56 PM 23 minutes ago, DocATL said: ICON feels more realistic, talking completely out of my arse. Whatever has the lowest totals. Also rain nosing northward on Euro after the early thump so there’s that too. EURO AI is more promising, keeping the freeze line farther south. It's a favorable setup to keep snow plows busy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted Tuesday at 02:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:49 PM The early ride up the roller coaster is my favorite part. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted Tuesday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:20 PM 1 hour ago, DocATL said: ICON feels more realistic, talking completely out of my arse. Whatever has the lowest totals. Also rain nosing northward on Euro after the early thump so there’s that too. 12z Icon welcome aboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Tuesday at 03:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:24 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Tuesday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:37 PM Riding the rain/snow line on models. Imagine that. Lol. Scary place to be. I can't afford any north bumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM The last two EPS runs have been mighty impressive, which is usually the guidance suite you want on your side. Too far out to be super confident but if we don't see any sig backsliding, chances are pretty decent even at this lead time for the biggest synoptic event in this part of the subforum since the two weeks of winter in January 2024 (which isn't saying all that much given the lack of snow last winter). Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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