NNE Cold Season Thread 2025-2026

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

While I agree greatly about the fact that temperatures have been a key driver of this stretch, I will push back slightly on the no big storms for the mountains.  Maybe I'm thinking more in terms of cycles, but we've had at least two 20"+ "cycles" over say a 2-3 day period.

I do think the upper elevations of 3,000ft+ are wearing the brunt of the positive snowfall departures over the valleys too.  Often we see in synoptic seasons like 2007-2008, the valley locations under 1,000ft can see just as much snow as the mountains... because it's synoptic forcing up at 700mb and above.  You get a 1" QPF dump and it hits at 300ft almost the same as at 3,000ft if the temperatures are cold enough.

But this stretch has been meso-scale driven and just loaded QPF and snowfall into the upper elevations non-stop.  And a bunch of the early snows in November were heavy QPF events.  It was elevational driven too... like when Stowe opened with 250 acres of terrain all on natural snow essentially back in mid-November, my backyard had next to nothing.  There was a monster gradient in there for 2-3 weeks around 1,500ft.  From like 1-3" to like 18"+.  Which I think is seen in some of the lower elevation snowfall numbers as to why they aren't as ahead of normal as some other years... while the mountains are clearly in record territory.  

I do agree on the bread and butter though... despite a couple of "big events" they aren't hyped events.  I think there was one Winter Storm Warning?  Even Advisories have been limited for this, largely because the snow has been impacting higher elevation spots and been mesoscale in nature.

The Stowe Snow Report team ran a SWE analysis yesterday for NWS/NOAA and I'll share some photos later, but we generally found 55" depth at 3,000ft High Road with 13" of water.  While 1,500ft was 26" snow depth and 6" of water.  Both plots were consistent at 23-24% water.

13" of water up high seemed fairly impressive for a snowpack that began roughly 6 weeks ago.  That's a good slug of frozen QPF!  And would check out for over 100" of snowfall.

Considering how dry it had been in the weeks and months leading up to the snow blitz, it's nice to see some stored water being built up.  Now lets hope we don't lose a lot to run off on frozen ground.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, das said:

Good post.  To put a fine point on the synoptic/orographic nature of this year, I am at 14.6" snowfall total here in Charlotte at 285'.  With 4" OTG and a SWE of 0.6"

Exactly the same 14.6" here in the western Maine foothills, but with 6" depth and about 0.8" LE.

[WxWatcher007]

Temp dropping and flipped to snow here

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Temp dropping and flipped to snow here

Never saw any rain up at 1500ft that I could tell.

Snowing now with a dusting of white at 33F.

[J.Spin]

8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

While I agree greatly about the fact that temperatures have been a key driver of this stretch, I will push back slightly on the no big storms for the mountains.  Maybe I'm thinking more in terms of cycles, but we've had at least two 20"+ "cycles" over say a 2-3 day period.

I do agree on the bread and butter though... despite a couple of "big events" they aren't hyped events.  I think there was one Winter Storm Warning?  Even Advisories have been limited for this, largely because the snow has been impacting higher elevation spots and been mesoscale in nature.

What one considers a “big” storm is sort of arbitrary/subjective, so there’s certainly room for pushback. But your comments help to make the point – I can’t even tell you when those two 20” cycles occurred. I’m not sure if anyone in the forum other than you knows when they happened. Most likely they were “nothing” events in terms of their impacts on the majority of the Northeast. There have only been three TWC named winter storms so far this season, and they all impacted us and are in the list below, but none of them were named for their impacts in our area because their effects here were minor as you can see by their accumulations at our site. Alston and Bellamy earned their names because of impacts in the Midwest, and Chan was named because of impacts off to our south. If you look at this list below of the 18 storms that have hit our site so far this season, it’s loaded with Clippers, cold fronts, and shortwaves. My main argument was that the Mansfield stake has reached record depth without being in the sweet spot for any major synoptic storms. If someone told me that Mt. Mansfield had reached a record snowpack depth for mid-December, I’d assume there had to have been at least a couple of major synoptic storms in which our area was in the perfect position to cash in and get a ton of snow. But that hasn’t been the case. And, what’s more interesting is to consider that perhaps the record depth wasn’t achieved just in spite of not getting hit by those big synoptic storms, but the record depth was actually achieved because we were in a pattern that wasn’t conducive to creating big storms. What has transpired so far this fall just proves that it’s not necessary to have multiple perfectly placed coastal storms to achieve a record mountain snowpack around here - that’s the part I find most counterintuitive and intriguing.

Below is the list of accumulating storms that have affected our site so far this season, and it should be just about the same list for the local mountains. The description of each storm is included, and none of them were big coastal systems. The closest to a typical nor’easter was Winter Storm Chan, but it was still quite weak, and its effects this far north were fairly minimal (only 4.8 inches for a storm total at our site).

[bwt3650]

The gfs has done an outstanding job of sniffing out these storm cycles this year. When I’ve seen that darker blue precip shield sitting over the northern greens for 18-24 hours on a nw flow flow show up for 3-4 runs in a row, you can almost lock in an 18” upslope party every time so far this year. Even at a 3-4 day lead time.


.

[Froude]

Haven’t had time to check in here much but glad I tuned in for a J Spin data dump. I always love reaping the benefits of your record keeping.

I don’t have numbers to back it up but I think there are a couple things factoring into the perception of this amazing start to our winter.

First, this has been the best early winter in terms of valley snow retention that I can remember. Aside from some days around Thanksgiving we have had snow cover on the ground here in Fairfax since November 11. Consistent cold without the rain and melt outs (like the one we’re about to have) has preserved dry fluffy snow in my front yard for the better part of the last 6 weeks. That is remarkable at my location for November and early December. And it's also kept the ski slopes in phenomenal condition.

Also, with so many small systems there have been a lot of days with snowflakes in the air even if it’s not always piling up. It just feels different when there’s flakes flying out your window and keeping the surface refreshed.

J Spin do you keep data on snow depth days?  Your retention is always better than here in the Champlain Valley but I’d be curious how this early season stacks up in that department.

[backedgeapproaching]

Even down here I have had 17 measurable snow events since Mid NOV.  I'm sure that number is even higher up there(NVT).  It works out to pretty much every other day if you were to average it out, which certainly makes it seems even more snowy as Froude mentioned.

 

Edit: I see Jspin posted above and has 18 events documented, so similar. 

[powderfreak]

Love seeing the snow cores making it into the AFD.

.HYDROLOGY...
Sharp rises on streams and rivers are anticipated on Friday
into Friday night associated with warm temperatures, snow melt,
and moderate rainfall. Rainfall of 0.50 to 1.25 is expected with
snow melt adding another 0.75 to 1.25 inches into the river
basins. Given dewpoints will be above freezing during the day
today and tomorrow, efficient snow melt will be likely. Snow
core analysis Tuesday near Mt Mansfield indicated at 3000 feet
snow depths were 53 to 58 inches with 12 to 14 inches of water,
while at 1550 feet snow depths were 22 to 30 inches with 5 to 7
inches of water. The rivers with greatest potential to reach
action stage, given expected rainfall and snow melt are the
Ausable, Mad, Winooski at Essex Junction, and Otter Creek at
Center Rutland on Friday afternoon and evening. Crests on the
Mad and Ausable Rivers will be Friday afternoon, and Otter
Creek and the Winooski cresting closer to Friday evening/early
Saturday morning. Lastly, while any river ice may move, the
threat of ice jams remains low.

3,000ft High Road Plot…

1500ft Barnes Camp…