MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[JoMo]

5 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Anyone got a freezing rain model map for the entire event?

You can use the GFS/Canadian models for total freezing rain QPF on Pivotalweather. It's located under the "Winter Weather" Parameter. Just pick an hour after the precip has ended. 

[andyhb]

Massive storm for pretty much all of OK on the 00z GFS. Even at 10:1 that's approaching record-breaking territory.

[JoMo]

Nice shift north on the 00z GFS this run. 00z Canadian shifted north as well. 

[NWAflizzard]

These temperatures from the GFS on the morning of the 27th remind me of 2021. Crazy

[stormdragonwx]

^yeah I was about to post a comment on this. During the event Saturday it looks like a lot of us might not make it out of the teens for HIGHS. Hence the 20-25:1 snow ratios being hinted at.

[MUWX]

I’m a little nervous about rates. Last year or the year before we had super cold temps and everyone was expecting huge rates and we ended up with less than 10-1 rates. 

[stormdragonwx]

IIRC there was excessive warm air advection the day of the event that affected it. The models didn't handle it well for sure.

4 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I’m a little nervous about rates. Last year or the year before we had super cold temps and everyone was expecting huge rates and we ended up with less than 10-1 rates. 

[JoMo]

Hopefully the 00z UKMET is a preview of the 00z Euro. 

[MUWX]

8 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Hopefully the 00z UKMET is a preview of the 00z Euro. 

Hall of fame run. 

[JoMo]

The 00z Euro AI ensemble was more north as well, continuing it's trend. 

EDIT: 00z Euro went north again. Beautiful run!

[MoWeatherguy]

Oz Euro is insane!!

[MoWeatherguy]

[StormChazer]

My oh my...

 

[westhope84]

Option A: Historic Snowfall

Option B: Historic Disappointment

I’ll honestly be thrilled with 6” of powder, though. The scope of that Euro run is so impressive. 

[lookingnorth]

I want this northward trend to stop soonish, though, or I'll have to start worrying about ice in Norman.

[stormdragonwx]

Indeed I suspect Lucy is really trolling hard with the football tonight. I remember the storm last Feb was putting out crazy amounts but in reality it was just 6 inches. Not that I was complaining. lol

10 minutes ago, westhope84 said:

Option A: Historic Snowfall

Option B: Historic Disappointment

I’ll honestly be thrilled with 6” of powder, though. The scope of that Euro run is so impressive. 

[stormdragonwx]

23 minutes ago, lookingnorth said:

I want this northward trend to stop soonish, though, or I'll have to start worrying about ice in Norman.

This is valid too. This could quickly go from potentially historic snowfall to a crippling ice storm. Watching cautiously.

[stormdragonwx]

But I will say the snow depth parameter is pretty absurd across the models Sunday eve as the system moves out.

[JoMo]

Winter Storm Watches now out for Southern KS and Southern MO. 

[JoMo]

Interesting discussion from SGF NWS

Quote

Hurricane Hunters are currently out in that area to sample the closed
low, so hopefully our next few model runs will be "closer to the
truth".

 

[rockchalk83]

Not the whopper the 00z was, but the 06z GFS is still a good hit for most, with warning criteria snows along and S of US 54: 

[rockchalk83]

Another banger from the Euro: 

[The Ole Bucket]

1 hour ago, rockchalk83 said:

Another banger from the Euro: 

Time to start the windshield wipers and bring this back south a little bit so everyone can get in on the fun.

[MUWX]

If the more aggressive northern models are correct, a lot of people north of the KS/Ok line, extended into Missouri are going to be caught off guard. 

[StormChazer]

NAM is getting into range now, and it has the warm nose much further north.

 

Not even done yet and it's already dropped 13 inches of snow, 6 inches of sleet across the state.

 

Now, the NAM always overdoes it, but still, interesting trend to the north.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The Waterboy]

We’re starting to cut it real close from OKC to Tulsa to Bentonville.  That run gives me 11” but 50 miles south is 6” of sleet.  Can’t recall ever seeing that much sleet modeled.  
 

JoMo is in the bullseye now and looking good.  Now we just need it to settle in and not continue the NW jog. 

[MUWX]

3 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

We’re starting to cut it real close from OKC to Tulsa to Bentonville.  That run gives me 11” but 50 miles south is 6” of sleet.  Can’t recall ever seeing that much sleet modeled.  
 

JoMo is in the bullseye now and looking good.  Now we just need it to settle in and not continue the NW jog. 

In some ways getting that much sleet would be awesome, and it other ways it would be incredibly depressing.  Seeing the NAM model 8.2" of sleet is absolutely wild. Just an absolutely monster storm on the NAM.

[StormChazer]

5 minutes ago, MUWX said:

In some ways getting that much sleet would be awesome, and it other ways it would be incredibly depressing.  Seeing the NAM model 8.2" of sleet is absolutely wild. Just an absolutely monster storm on the NAM.

I lived through the "Cobblestone Ice event" in Dallas in 2013, we got 5+ inches of sleet. I can tell you on one hand it was REALLY cool, but also, the roads.....it was called the cobblestone ice event because of how thick the sleet was on the roads, cars compacted and melted areas,  turning the roads into an uneven skating rink, it was like driving on a bumpy, unpaved, unkept road in the country, where you slid in and out of each little valley and peak in the road every 3 feet. Absolutely crazy, the city was shut down for about 4 days.

But when you realize how much snow 5 inches of sleet would be.....yeah, you'd rather have the snow!

[RocketWX]

Here is the latest NBM, compared to 24 hours ago. Definitely a noticeable northward shift in extent of heavier totals. It hasn't necessarily backed off on the Oklahoma side either, but rather just a larger swath of heavier precip among the models. I'm definitely feeling more optimistic about a meaningful snow in SC KS than I was 24-48hrs ago.