MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[JoMo]

5 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Anyone got a freezing rain model map for the entire event?

You can use the GFS/Canadian models for total freezing rain QPF on Pivotalweather. It's located under the "Winter Weather" Parameter. Just pick an hour after the precip has ended. 

[andyhb]

Massive storm for pretty much all of OK on the 00z GFS. Even at 10:1 that's approaching record-breaking territory.

[JoMo]

Nice shift north on the 00z GFS this run. 00z Canadian shifted north as well. 

[NWAflizzard]

These temperatures from the GFS on the morning of the 27th remind me of 2021. Crazy

[stormdragonwx]

^yeah I was about to post a comment on this. During the event Saturday it looks like a lot of us might not make it out of the teens for HIGHS. Hence the 20-25:1 snow ratios being hinted at.

[MUWX]

I’m a little nervous about rates. Last year or the year before we had super cold temps and everyone was expecting huge rates and we ended up with less than 10-1 rates. 

[stormdragonwx]

IIRC there was excessive warm air advection the day of the event that affected it. The models didn't handle it well for sure.

4 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I’m a little nervous about rates. Last year or the year before we had super cold temps and everyone was expecting huge rates and we ended up with less than 10-1 rates. 

[JoMo]

Hopefully the 00z UKMET is a preview of the 00z Euro. 

[MUWX]

8 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Hopefully the 00z UKMET is a preview of the 00z Euro. 

Hall of fame run. 

[JoMo]

The 00z Euro AI ensemble was more north as well, continuing it's trend. 

EDIT: 00z Euro went north again. Beautiful run!

[MoWeatherguy]

Oz Euro is insane!!

[MoWeatherguy]

[StormChazer]

My oh my...

 

[westhope84]

Option A: Historic Snowfall

Option B: Historic Disappointment

I’ll honestly be thrilled with 6” of powder, though. The scope of that Euro run is so impressive. 

[lookingnorth]

I want this northward trend to stop soonish, though, or I'll have to start worrying about ice in Norman.

[stormdragonwx]

Indeed I suspect Lucy is really trolling hard with the football tonight. I remember the storm last Feb was putting out crazy amounts but in reality it was just 6 inches. Not that I was complaining. lol

10 minutes ago, westhope84 said:

Option A: Historic Snowfall

Option B: Historic Disappointment

I’ll honestly be thrilled with 6” of powder, though. The scope of that Euro run is so impressive. 

[stormdragonwx]

23 minutes ago, lookingnorth said:

I want this northward trend to stop soonish, though, or I'll have to start worrying about ice in Norman.

This is valid too. This could quickly go from potentially historic snowfall to a crippling ice storm. Watching cautiously.

[stormdragonwx]

But I will say the snow depth parameter is pretty absurd across the models Sunday eve as the system moves out.

[JoMo]

Winter Storm Watches now out for Southern KS and Southern MO. 

[JoMo]

Interesting discussion from SGF NWS

Quote

Hurricane Hunters are currently out in that area to sample the closed
low, so hopefully our next few model runs will be "closer to the
truth".

 

[rockchalk83]

Not the whopper the 00z was, but the 06z GFS is still a good hit for most, with warning criteria snows along and S of US 54: 

[rockchalk83]

Another banger from the Euro: 

[The Ole Bucket]

1 hour ago, rockchalk83 said:

Another banger from the Euro: 

Time to start the windshield wipers and bring this back south a little bit so everyone can get in on the fun.