MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[JoMo]

5 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Anyone got a freezing rain model map for the entire event?

You can use the GFS/Canadian models for total freezing rain QPF on Pivotalweather. It's located under the "Winter Weather" Parameter. Just pick an hour after the precip has ended. 

[andyhb]

Massive storm for pretty much all of OK on the 00z GFS. Even at 10:1 that's approaching record-breaking territory.

[JoMo]

Nice shift north on the 00z GFS this run. 00z Canadian shifted north as well. 

[NWAflizzard]

These temperatures from the GFS on the morning of the 27th remind me of 2021. Crazy

[stormdragonwx]

^yeah I was about to post a comment on this. During the event Saturday it looks like a lot of us might not make it out of the teens for HIGHS. Hence the 20-25:1 snow ratios being hinted at.

[MUWX]

I’m a little nervous about rates. Last year or the year before we had super cold temps and everyone was expecting huge rates and we ended up with less than 10-1 rates. 

[stormdragonwx]

IIRC there was excessive warm air advection the day of the event that affected it. The models didn't handle it well for sure.

4 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I’m a little nervous about rates. Last year or the year before we had super cold temps and everyone was expecting huge rates and we ended up with less than 10-1 rates. 

[JoMo]

Hopefully the 00z UKMET is a preview of the 00z Euro. 

[MUWX]

8 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Hopefully the 00z UKMET is a preview of the 00z Euro. 

Hall of fame run. 

[JoMo]

The 00z Euro AI ensemble was more north as well, continuing it's trend. 

EDIT: 00z Euro went north again. Beautiful run!

[MoWeatherguy]

Oz Euro is insane!!

[MoWeatherguy]

[StormChazer]

My oh my...