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November 2025 OBS Discussion


wdrag
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It's a little unusual to see snow accumulation on trees, grass, and car tops in the middle of the day and snow fog/ low visibilities with surface temperatures between 35F and 37F. And outside of a few bursts, the intensity hasn't been all that great either. This is an overperforming airmass.

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Wantage NJ at Noon. 0.1" from the snow showers since 9A. pavement wet...melting on pavement contact. 32.5 and still snowing at 1211PM 11/30/25.
 
For those wondering where am located -- southern Wantage NJ which I consider part of i84 corridor-keeping posts simple. 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

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A cooler than normal November is concluding. New York City is finishing with a monthly mean temperature of 47.2°, which is 0.8° below normal (0.5° below the older 1981-2010 baseline).

A cold front will bring showers tonight into early tomorrow. Afterward, a prolonged stretch of below normal temperatures will likely continue into or through the second week of December. December 1-10 will be a solidly colder than normal period. The potential exists for the coldest first days of December since at least 2010 (34.6°, 6th coldest December 1-10 since 2000).

The five coldest December 1-10 periods since 2000 were:

1. 30.6°, 2002
2. 32.2°, 2003
3. 32.4°, 2000
4. 33.1°, 2005
5. 33.4°, 2007

All 5 of these cases had measurable snowfall in Central Park.

A storm will affect the region on Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing 0.50"-1.50" precipitation to the region. There is a distinct possibility that New York City could see its first measurable snowfall of the season, even as the storm will be mainly a rain event. Interior sections have the highest probability of seeing accumulations of snow.

The coldest air mass so far this season could move into the region late in the week. The temperature will likely tumble into the 20s Thursday night into Friday in New York City.

Another system could bring some light precipitation to the region during the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -2.04 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.064 today. 

 

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