November 2025 OBS Discussion

[psv88]

So much for that mostly sunny forecast!

[SACRUS]

22 minutes ago, psv88 said:

So much for that mostly sunny forecast!

 

Yeah clouds again hanging on and pushing in

 

[Dark Star]

18 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Keep in mind that chatGTP is not the be all and end all of accuracy. it is only as good as the search terms, and what is inputted in to it. Too many variables at this point with it IMHO.

 

I assume that future AI models will be excellent, being able to correct biases, and errors from the last run if initial 6 hour forecast(s) don't verify.  Anyways, I'm optimistic (for once)...

[Dark Star]

17 hours ago, Sundog said:

Do you know how hard it is for the EPS to show such a negative anomaly in the long range with our background state?

Not sure.  Stratospheric warming is supposed to bring down colder air, although I'm not sure this exact scenario as pictured will materialize...

[anthonymm]

6 hours ago, Sundog said:

I mean if all it takes is a cold Siberia and warm Pacific to end winter then we are never going to get cold and snow ever again

This but unironically. The pac jet permanently cancelled snow odds for the tristate.

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

This but unironically. The pac jet permanently cancelled snow odds for the tristate.

We need it to cooperate.  It is a bigger factor than the nao imo.

[donsutherland1]

A generally milder than normal pattern will likely continue through next Wednesday when a system could bring a period of rain. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely. 

The closing days of November will likely turn colder. There is potential for New York City's Central Park to experience its first freeze of 2025. The 1991-2020 normal first data is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30.

The opening days of December will turn milder. However, colder conditions could begin to develop during the second half of that week and continue through the second week of December. Severe cold appears unlikely through at least the first 10 days of December. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend, in part, on how the imminent stratospheric warming event propagates. 

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,394th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. That ties the record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +38.17 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.805 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.7° (1.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We need it to cooperate.  It is a bigger factor than the nao imo.

Pacific Jet has been a relentless monster for the NYC metro area for years.