October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[wdrag]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The idea of a potentially wet October 30-November 3 period, perhaps +/- a few days to allow for timing differences at the current forecasting range, still looks to be on track as per the latest ECMWF weekly guidance.

It should be noted that the CFSv2 is still not on board. On the other hand, the 12z ECMWF has insane rainfall amounts in the Middle Atlantic Region.

Continues this morning with the 00z/21 EPS much deeper at 5H than the 00z GEFS, but the 06z GEFS has deepened bug not yet responsive at the surface and resultant rainfall.

No thread yet, dependent on la/lo of sfc low and its gradient. It will rain in that period, seemingly Oct 29-30 and may bring October monthly to normal.  Too early for me on a thread. EPS twice as much qpf than the GEFS and CMCE so not a lock on a strong system. 

[steve392]

42 chilly degree's this morning at work.  Big temp difference from home to work.  Felt great walking in.