October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[lee59]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Once stations got wireless I got much more interested in getting my own station, plus where I was in life at the time. I do remember putting my old Weather Monitor II on two different roofs in the late 90's and early 00's, not the best move to have the entire station up there but live and learn. Its much easier all around now. I remember you giving me pointers on how to connect to my computer and then that got even easier with the Davis WeatherLink Live.

I had a weather wizard III. About a year or two ago I actually bought another weather wizard III on eBay just to get the anemometer.  It works with the vantage pro2. I saved about $100

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

This year has been absolutely horrible for small biting/stinging winged critters. 

we have that nasty exotic mosquito disease now too.  I didn't see all these mosquitos in June and July when we were baking, they seem to come out of nowhere now.  I wonder what got them going in October and not before this? Or maybe I didn't notice them when it was very hot and they were hiding in the shade lol

 

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What is it for JFK, I can already tell the rainfall averages by decade are much lower here.  Our summers are usually dry and have been ever since I can remember (starting with the early 80s).

 

JFK averages less than NYC. As the best frontal convergence is usually to the west. The heaviest amounts from 2003 to 2024 were at NYC and New Brunswick. The greatest difference between JFK and NYC is during the warm season with the sea breeze fronts to the west of JFK.

2003 to 2024 annual average rainfall

NYC….52.71”

NBW….51.96”

EWR….48.86”

LGA…..48.04”

HPN….46.81”

ISP…….46.70”

JFK……45.09”

May to October 

NYC…28.79”

JFK….23.70”

November to April 

NYC…..23.98”

JFK……21.38”

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Once stations got wireless I got much more interested in getting my own station, plus where I was in life at the time. I do remember putting my old Weather Monitor II on two different roofs in the late 90's and early 00's, not the best move to have the entire station up there but live and learn. Its much easier all around now. I remember you giving me pointers on how to connect to my computer and then that got even easier with the Davis WeatherLink Live.

an advantage of wired stations is that they update much more frequently.  and you can power them with an electrical outlet and not have to use batteries.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK averages less than NYC. As the best frontal convergence is usually to the west. The heaviest amounts from 2003 to 2024 were at NYC and New Brunswick. The greatest difference between JFK and NYC is during the warm season with the sea breeze fronts to the west of JFK.

2003 to 2024 annual average rainfall

NYC….52.71”

NBW….51.96”

EWR….48.86”

LGA…..48.04”

HPN….46.81”

ISP…….46.70”

JFK……45.09”

May to October 

NYC…28.79”

JFK….23.70”

November to April 

NYC…..23.98”

JFK……21.38”

wow almost everyone averages less than the city lol, even Newark, LGA and White Plains.

the average must have been even lower during the 80s when I grew up, do you know the 51-80 and 61-90 averages?

45 inches sounds much more normal to me and probably around 42 inches when I was growing up.

 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow almost everyone averages less than the city lol, even Newark, LGA and White Plains.

the average must have been even lower during the 80s when I grew up, do you know the 51-80 and 61-90 averages?

45 inches sounds much more normal to me and probably around 42 inches when I was growing up.

 

JFK averaged 41.79” from 1970 to 2002. Same old story of the thunderstorms weakening before reaching the South Shore. Didn’t notice much difference in the insects growing up back in Long Beach away from the marshes between the wetter and drier summers. But the marsh areas always had a very high number of mosquitos.  

[doncat]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

an advantage of wired stations is that they update much more frequently.  and you can power them with an electrical outlet and not have to use batteries.

 

By "wireless" we mean the connection between the outside unit and the inside console. The console is still powered by AC with battery backup. 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK averaged 41.79” from 1970 to 2002. Same old story of the thunderstorms weakening before reaching the South Shore. Didn’t notice much difference in the insects growing up back in Long Beach away from the marshes between the wetter and drier summers. But the marsh areas always had a very high number of mosquitos.  

Marshes are awful, it's why we call them swamps. I'm hoping one of these days they'll chop down the tall grass and get rid of this excess water.  There are tsetse flies in there (they cause sleeping sickness).

42 inches sounds right around what I'd expect for rainfall.

I always thought a more tropical climate begins with around 50 inches of rain, like what the Gulf Coast receives.

 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK averaged 41.79” from 1970 to 2002. Same old story of the thunderstorms weakening before reaching the South Shore. Didn’t notice much difference in the insects growing up back in Long Beach away from the marshes between the wetter and drier summers. But the marsh areas always had a very high number of mosquitos.  

One thing I noticed when it's extremely hot and dry, the mosquitos hide in the shade and come out much later in the day just before the sun sets.

Or they come out when you're watering your plants lol.

 

[ag3]

Recorded only .01”

What a tremendous bust.

[Sundog]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Marshes are awful, it's why we call them swamps. I'm hoping one of these days they'll chop down the tall grass and get rid of this excess water.  There are tsetse flies in there (they cause sleeping sickness).

42 inches sounds right around what I'd expect for rainfall.

I always thought a more tropical climate begins with around 50 inches of rain, like what the Gulf Coast receives.

 

Marshes prevent flooding and are home to many important species. 

They should be tearing houses down that were built on them, not the other way around. 

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Marshes are awful, it's why we call them swamps. I'm hoping one of these days they'll chop down the tall grass and get rid of this excess water.  There are tsetse flies in there (they cause sleeping sickness).

42 inches sounds right around what I'd expect for rainfall.

I always thought a more tropical climate begins with around 50 inches of rain, like what the Gulf Coast receives.

 

The wetlands are some of the most important ecosystems on the entire planet. 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The wetlands are some of the most important ecosystems on the entire planet. 

Wetlands are, but not the ones in our area (especially not the ones near where people live).

 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Marshes prevent flooding and are home to many important species. 

They should be tearing houses down that were built on them, not the other way around. 

My high school was built on it and is sinking a few inches every decade lol.

They are havens for mosquitoes and other awful biting insects.  I think if we exterminated mosquitoes and these other biting flies from the planet no one would ever miss them.  Aside from draining the swamps, what else can be done? Spraying of pesticides? But that has its own issues.

 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 60s through midweek. A stronger push of cold air could arrive afterward. Cool temperatures will likely persist through next weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +7.60 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.132 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.6° (0.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

we have that nasty exotic mosquito disease now too.  I didn't see all these mosquitos in June and July when we were baking, they seem to come out of nowhere now.  I wonder what got them going in October and not before this? Or maybe I didn't notice them when it was very hot and they were hiding in the shade lol

 

No, you had something else to complain about that was more important at the time

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wetlands are, but not the ones in our area (especially not the ones near where people live).

 

The wetlands in our area are key ecosystems. While we lost large swaths to development from Jamaica Bay out to Eastern LI, at least what we have now has been designated as preserves.

Imagine seeing the whole area from NYC out to Long Island hundreds of years ago. NY Harbor back to the NJ Meadowlands was one of the greatest natural estuaries in all of North America. Jamaica Bay wildlife refuge is still one of the most important stopovers for migrating shorebirds in the East.

Before the 5 towns was developed it was called the Woodmere Woods. That was an extensive forested area which people fought to save before it got developed in the mid 1900s. Much of Central Nassau was called the Hempstead Plains natural grasslands. Only a small portion of the original habitat survives near Nassau Community College.

The back bays from Nassau to across the GSB still have a large mash habitat. The further east you go on Long Island the closer you get to something that is close to the original state. Especially from the Pine Barrens out to the Twin Forks.

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The wetlands in our area are key ecosystems. While we lost large swaths to development from Jamaica Bay out to Eastern LI, at least what we have now has been designated as preserves.

Imagine seeing the whole area from NYC out to Long Island hundreds of years ago. NY Harbor back to the NJ Meadowlands was one of the greatest natural estuaries in all of North America. Jamaica Bay wildlife refuge is still one of the most important stopovers for migrating shorebirds in the East.

Before the 5 towns was developed it was called the Woodmere Woods. That was an extensive forested area which people fought to save before it got developed in the mid 1900s. Much of Central Nassau was called the Hempstead Plains natural grasslands. Only a small portion of the original habitat survives near Nassau Community College.

The back bays from Nassau to across the GSB still have a large mash habitat. The further east you go on Long Island the closer you get to something that is close to the original state. Especially from the Pine Barrens out to the Twin Forks.

But with a cooler climate, as you stated before, we probably didn't have all these invasive tropical species here.  I can't imagine hundreds of years ago we had malaria or west nile here or any of these other new illnesses we are seeing.  I wonder what our biosystem was like back then? I see some of these towns' histories go back to the 1600s, it must have been as wooded as what I see in the Poconos today. Or even more.

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

No, you had something else to complain about that was more important at the time

True lol.  But I have noticed that we rarely ever see mosquitoes during the middle of the day when it's really hot.  It's always early on in the morning or much later in the day close to sunset.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 60s through midweek. A stronger push of cold air could arrive afterward. Cool temperatures will likely persist through next weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +7.60 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.132 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.6° (0.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

Don it looks like tomorrow is the warmest day out of the next 10, with less wind and some areas approaching 70? Sounds ideal.

 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Don it looks like tomorrow is the warmest day out of the next 10, with less wind and some areas approaching 70? Sounds ideal.

 

If the usually toasty GEMLAM doesn't get us to 70 that means we probably won't. 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, Sundog said:

If the usually toasty GEMLAM doesn't get us to 70 that means we probably won't. 

That was the model that had us hitting 109 back in late June and we were laughing at it lol. I remember because you posted the maps.

 

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don it looks like tomorrow is the warmest day out of the next 10, with less wind and some areas approaching 70? Sounds ideal.

 

Newark will probably approach or reach 70°. Most of the NYC area will probably fall just short.

[donsutherland1]

The idea of a potentially wet October 30-November 3 period, perhaps +/- a few days to allow for timing differences at the current forecasting range, still looks to be on track as per the latest ECMWF weekly guidance.

It should be noted that the CFSv2 is still not on board. On the other hand, the 12z ECMWF has insane rainfall amounts in the Middle Atlantic Region.