October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[Sundog]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 1981-2010 normals can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/

When you take the October averages from 1981-2010 from the Central Park records available on the NWS site it comes out to 57.3 degrees. 

Do you know how they would arrive to 56.9? 

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

When you take the October averages from 1981-2010 from the Central Park records available on the NWS site it comes out to 57.3 degrees. 

Do you know how they would arrive to 56.9? 

Tampering probably  JK, but that really is odd if you did the math and it is .4 warmer than what is listed.  Maybe you found an error?

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There's been virtually no change.

Central Park: 1961-1990: 10/6; 1991-2020: 10/5; 2000-2025: 10/6

JFK: 1961-1990: 10/10; 1991-2020: 10/9; 2000-2025: 10/11

well this is strange, I thought it was moving towards November.

how about for the first low temperature below 40 for both locations, Don-- any changes there? Thanks!

 

[Sundog]

7 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Tampering probably  JK, but that really is odd if you did the math and it is .4 warmer than what is listed.  Maybe you found an error?

For a 30 year average 0.4 is a lot. 

Last fall because of frustration of not being able to find prior 30 year averages I calculated the 30 year averages all the way back to 1870 using all the monthly data available on the NWS site for Central Park. 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

When you take the October averages from 1981-2010 from the Central Park records available on the NWS site it comes out to 57.3 degrees. 

Do you know how they would arrive to 56.9? 

Statistical adjustments are involved. The numbers aren't raw averages.

https://www.noaa.gov/explainers/understanding-climate-normals

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well this is strange, I thought it was moving towards November.

how about for the first low temperature below 40 for both locations, Don-- any changes there? Thanks!

 

Such lows are occurring later.

Central Park: 1961-1990: 10/19; 1991-2020: 10/22; 2000-2025: 10/24

JFK: 1961-1990: 10/17; 1991-2020: 10/21; 2000-2025: 10/22

[SACRUS]

 

64 for the high down to 49

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Statistical adjustments are involved. The numbers aren't raw averages.

https://www.noaa.gov/explainers/understanding-climate-normals

Well I find this kind of absurd. If there is a problem with the data why isn't it adjusted at the monthly level and then posted online?

You know what's interesting, I just checked and there is no missing data at all from Central Park for those 30 Octobers, and it certainly hasn't changed location during that time, which were the two main reasons given for doing temperature adjustments. 

And did it have instrument issues that they needed a fix that resulted in a whopping 0.4 adjustment?

I find it very silly. 

 

[donsutherland1]

42 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Well I find this kind of absurd. If there is a problem with the data why isn't it adjusted at the monthly level and then posted online?

You know what's interesting, I just checked and there is no missing data at all from Central Park for those 30 Octobers, and it certainly hasn't changed location during that time, which were the two main reasons given for doing temperature adjustments. 

And did it have instrument issues that they needed a fix that resulted in a whopping 0.4 adjustment?

I find it very silly. 

 

We agree that it’s a large adjustment. Unfortunately, I don’t have the specific details.

[pazzo83]

at 12:30am EDT, all of BOS, NYC (from the midnight ob), PHL, and DCA have the exact same temp: 50F.  pretty interesting lol.

[bluewave]

On 10/15/2025 at 8:05 AM, Sundog said:

Central Park October average for 1961-1990 was 57.5 degrees. The 1991-2020 average is 57.9 degrees (although I calculated 57.8 degrees, not sure how the NWS got 57.9.)

So it's not that much warmer. Other months haver warmed more.

And wait until this decade goes into the averages. Temperatures have gone off the rails since 2020.

 

This is a function of the tree growth since the 1990s. So the high temperatures have been artificially suppressed by a large margin when the trees are leafed out. Same reason for the summer decline in highs and 90 days over this period. 

Notice how NYC is the only station to show a slight decline in high temperatures from 30 years before and after the new ASOS was put under the trees in 1995. NYC used to measure temperatures out in the open like all other stations do before the station change in 1995.

Once NYC drops the leaves by later in the fall the temperature trends are closer to the other stations. But even then NYC still has a slight cool bias during the winter due to the dense tree growth and lower sun angle enhancing the shade. 
 

 

[wdrag]

 

From the past two mornings partially reiterated: No chatter yet on the impact of the block - a block that would be helpful for wintry weather in winter.  The block lasts at least through October and now seemingly the first week of November?.  

I didn't carefully check whether ensemble modeling nailed this 5H blocking, October 1 or earlier? EPS did not have it very well at all for late October. 

Anyway, while the Ideal Greenland Block shifts westward to Canada...its still a block and will be effective (I think) on sending eastward moving shortwaves Into negative tilt along and south of I80 for our area, the remainder of the month.  That should mean additional meaningful rainfall and a couple good storms.  

Cyclically since at least this past Wednesday, the ECMWF OP CF has a squall line of scattered 45-60 MPH gusts Monday morning, with differing target areas in NJ/e PA/srn NYS.  Could be a few power outages/branches down.  May not be able to thread in advance but be alert. Bumpy flights eastern quarter of the country later Sunday-Monday morning and some decent 1-3" rains for our subforum Mon-Tue.

Saw the drought monitor and you've seen subsequent discussion.  I did review the 10 min video provided but not the hour long-yet. 

 

•  

[Sundog]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is a function of the tree growth since the 1990s. So the high temperatures have been artificially suppressed by a large margin when the trees are leafed out. Same reason for the summer decline in highs and 90 days over this period. 

Notice how NYC is the only station to show a slight decline in high temperatures from 30 years before and after the new ASOS was put under the trees in 1995. NYC used to measure temperatures out in the open like all other stations do before the station change in 1995.

Once NYC drops the leaves by later in the fall the temperature trends are closer to the other stations. But even then NYC still has a slight cool bias during the winter due to the dense tree growth and lower sun angle enhancing the shade.

 

Indeed, yet the temperature adjustment made to the 1981-2020 normals was to make a revision downward, as if Central Park was running too warm. 

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK can hit 70 at least on Sunday, could be mid 70s in NJ

 

Yeah, mid 70s away from the sea breeze in NJ. But the flow at JFK is forecast to be SSE. So we’ll see if JFK can beat guidance by a few degrees and sneak in a 70°.

 

[SACRUS]

 

51 / 31 off a low of 36.  Dry Today - Sunday  - Nice fall weekend upcoming.  Mid 60s today sunny.  A bit warmer Sat Mid 60s to low 70s in the warmest areas.  Low to mid 70s on Sunday which looks the warmest of the next week.  Front storms/showers Monday.  Dries out Tuesday , near normal 10/21 - 10/26.  Perhaps a brief warm up with trough/system into the Midwest pumping heights into the east 10/27-10/28 before the next ftont / storm brings rain 10/29.  Near  normal overall, beyond there.

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 90 (1938)
NYC: 90 (1938)
LGA: 83 (2016)
JFK: 82 (1963)


Lows:

EWR: 29 (1937) *earliest reading below 30
NYC: 33 (1886)
LGA: 38 (1970)
JFK: 38 (1970)


Historical:

 

1781 - General Cornwallis attempted to escape encirclement by crossing York River, "but a violent storm arose" dispersing his boats causing him to ask for an armistice. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1906: A Hurricane moved out of the Caribbean and across the lower Florida Keys to Miami leaving 164 people dead. The storm weakened in the Atlantic and turned back to Florida, crossing the coast near Daytona Beach as tropical storm. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1910 - A hurricane made a loop off the southwest coast of Florida. Winds above 100 mph were reported at Fort Myers FL, and the barometric pressure at Sand Key reached 28.40 inches. (David Ludlum)

1910: A category 4 hurricane moved north-northeast, passing just east of the Dry Tortugas. The maximum storm surge observed in Key West was 8 feet, with 15-foot waves at what is now Fort Zachary Taylor State Park.


1935: First of 176 days with a minimum temperature at or below 32 degrees at Langdon ND. This stands as the record for the United States. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1950 - Small but powerful Hurricane King struck Miami, FL. The hurricane packs winded to 122 mph, with gusts to 150 mph. Hurricane King then moved up the Florida peninsula to Georgia. Four persons were killed and damage was 28 million dollars. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1971 - Great balls of fire were observed just ahead of a tornado moving down the main street of Wray CO. However, little other electrical activity accompanied the storm. Nine persons were injured in the tornado, all at a trailer court at the edge of town. (The Weather Channel)
 

1971: Great balls of fire were observed just ahead of a tornado moving down the main street of Wray, Colorado. However, little other electrical activity accompanied the storm. Nine people were injured in the storm, all at a trailer court at the edge of town.

1971:Heavy rains in NW Minnesota. 4.02" at Georgetown (20 miles N of Moorhead.) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1977: Early snow in the Washington Baltimore, MD area and 18 inches in PA. (Ref. Oct. Snowfall History by Herb Close)

1979: Many birds were victims of a severe thunderstorm that crossed the Wichita Mountains National Wildlife Refuge in southwestern Oklahoma during the early morning hours. Hail up to one inch in diameter killed more than 3,500 birds and injured 1,500 to 2,000 others. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1981: Prolonged very heavy rain, from October 10th through October 17th, led to serious flooding across parts of south-central Oklahoma. In northwest Marshall County, 26.2 inches of rain fell during those eight days, with 16 inches of that total falling in just 16 hours. Two men drowned, and many people were injured and evacuated, due to the flooding. Estimates of the flood-related losses amounted to between $23 million and $60 million dollars. Then-President Ronald Reagan declared six Oklahoma counties as disaster areas. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)
 

1984 - A snowstorm struck northern Utah producing a record 18 inches in 24 hours at Salt Lake City, and 40 inches at the nearby Alta Ski Resort. The town of Magna, located ten miles west of Salt Lake City, did not receive any snow at all. The storm was responsible for a fifty vehicle pile-up along Interstate 15 near Farmington UT. (Storm Data)

1987 - It was a great day for an Oktoberfest, or to enjoy the colors of autumn, as much of the nation enjoyed sunny and mild weather. Columbia SC dipped to 34 degrees, marking their third morning in a row of record cold. Bakersfield CA reached 80 degrees for the 143rd day in a row to break a record established in 1940. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Lower Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes in Indiana, including one which injured four persons. Strong thunderstorm winds at Connerville IND caused three million dollars damage. Thunderstorms in Illinois produced hail two inches in diameter Colfax. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms representing the remnants of Hurricane Jerry deluged southeast Kentucky with four to six inches of rain in 18 to 24 hours, resulting in widespread flash flooding. Flooding resulted in more than five million dollars damage. Temperatures again warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the southeastern U.S. Lakeland FL and Orlando FL reported record highs of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1991: Sleet fell in the Blue Ridge Mountains as a major coastal storm causing extensive coastal flooding from North Carolina to Massachusetts. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1992: Heavy rain and storm caused erosion from Hatteras to Cape Cod 2-4 inches of rain and 64 mph wind in New Jersey. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)
 

1998: During the weekend of October 17-18, 1998, torrential rains fell over southern and southeast Texas. Up to 22 inches of rain fell, which first resulted in deadly flash flooding from San Antonio to Austin followed by record-breaking river floods along several South Texas rivers the following week. Based on provisional data from the USGS, which is subject to revision, the flood peak for this event was the highest known peak stage at 15 locations. Tragically, a total of 31 people died during the event (26 drownings, two tornado deaths, two heart attacks, and one electrocution/drowning).  At least 17 of the drowning victims were in vehicles that were either driven into water or were swept away by rapidly rising water.  Preliminary property damage estimates approached three-quarters of a billion dollars.

 

[psv88]

46 this morning. Warmer than forecast because winds stayed up

[Sundog]

34 minutes ago, psv88 said:

46 this morning. Warmer than forecast because winds stayed up

Very breezy this morning.

I bottomed out at 45 degrees when the winds were calm but they picked up and stayed up after around 4AM. Then temps jumped to 49 and stayed there for the rest of the early morning. 

[FPizz]

37.  Night started off windy then turned more calm

[SACRUS]

 

Up to a pleasant 67 today.  

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, mid 70s away from the sea breeze in NJ. But the flow at JFK is forecast to be SSE. So we’ll see if JFK can beat guidance by a few degrees and sneak in a 70°.

 

I see the midwest is very warm, what's keeping us from getting into that warmer air for the same length of time they have it in the midwest?

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Sundog said:

Very breezy this morning.

I bottomed out at 45 degrees when the winds were calm but they picked up and stayed up after around 4AM. Then temps jumped to 49 and stayed there for the rest of the early morning. 

That was too cold, the weather only got tolerable after about 1 pm when the winds calmed down and the temperatures rose above 60.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, FPizz said:

37.  Night started off windy then turned more calm

it was windy here until 1 in the afternoon

[uofmiami]

62.6 in Syosset & 62.3 in Muttontown for the high.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, psv88 said:

46 this morning. Warmer than forecast because winds stayed up

the wind made it feel cold all morning and really did a number on my allergies

they only went away when the wind died down and it got warmer after 1 pm

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 90 (1938)
NYC: 90 (1938)
LGA: 83 (2016)
JFK: 82 (1963)


Lows:

EWR: 29 (1937) *earliest reading below 30
NYC: 33 (1886)
LGA: 38 (1970)
JFK: 38 (1970)


Historical:

 

1781 - General Cornwallis attempted to escape encirclement by crossing York River, "but a violent storm arose" dispersing his boats causing him to ask for an armistice. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1906: A Hurricane moved out of the Caribbean and across the lower Florida Keys to Miami leaving 164 people dead. The storm weakened in the Atlantic and turned back to Florida, crossing the coast near Daytona Beach as tropical storm. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1910 - A hurricane made a loop off the southwest coast of Florida. Winds above 100 mph were reported at Fort Myers FL, and the barometric pressure at Sand Key reached 28.40 inches. (David Ludlum)

1910: A category 4 hurricane moved north-northeast, passing just east of the Dry Tortugas. The maximum storm surge observed in Key West was 8 feet, with 15-foot waves at what is now Fort Zachary Taylor State Park.


1935: First of 176 days with a minimum temperature at or below 32 degrees at Langdon ND. This stands as the record for the United States. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1950 - Small but powerful Hurricane King struck Miami, FL. The hurricane packs winded to 122 mph, with gusts to 150 mph. Hurricane King then moved up the Florida peninsula to Georgia. Four persons were killed and damage was 28 million dollars. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1971 - Great balls of fire were observed just ahead of a tornado moving down the main street of Wray CO. However, little other electrical activity accompanied the storm. Nine persons were injured in the tornado, all at a trailer court at the edge of town. (The Weather Channel)
 

1971: Great balls of fire were observed just ahead of a tornado moving down the main street of Wray, Colorado. However, little other electrical activity accompanied the storm. Nine people were injured in the storm, all at a trailer court at the edge of town.

1971:Heavy rains in NW Minnesota. 4.02" at Georgetown (20 miles N of Moorhead.) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1977: Early snow in the Washington Baltimore, MD area and 18 inches in PA. (Ref. Oct. Snowfall History by Herb Close)

1979: Many birds were victims of a severe thunderstorm that crossed the Wichita Mountains National Wildlife Refuge in southwestern Oklahoma during the early morning hours. Hail up to one inch in diameter killed more than 3,500 birds and injured 1,500 to 2,000 others. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1981: Prolonged very heavy rain, from October 10th through October 17th, led to serious flooding across parts of south-central Oklahoma. In northwest Marshall County, 26.2 inches of rain fell during those eight days, with 16 inches of that total falling in just 16 hours. Two men drowned, and many people were injured and evacuated, due to the flooding. Estimates of the flood-related losses amounted to between $23 million and $60 million dollars. Then-President Ronald Reagan declared six Oklahoma counties as disaster areas. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)
 

1984 - A snowstorm struck northern Utah producing a record 18 inches in 24 hours at Salt Lake City, and 40 inches at the nearby Alta Ski Resort. The town of Magna, located ten miles west of Salt Lake City, did not receive any snow at all. The storm was responsible for a fifty vehicle pile-up along Interstate 15 near Farmington UT. (Storm Data)

1987 - It was a great day for an Oktoberfest, or to enjoy the colors of autumn, as much of the nation enjoyed sunny and mild weather. Columbia SC dipped to 34 degrees, marking their third morning in a row of record cold. Bakersfield CA reached 80 degrees for the 143rd day in a row to break a record established in 1940. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Lower Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes in Indiana, including one which injured four persons. Strong thunderstorm winds at Connerville IND caused three million dollars damage. Thunderstorms in Illinois produced hail two inches in diameter Colfax. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms representing the remnants of Hurricane Jerry deluged southeast Kentucky with four to six inches of rain in 18 to 24 hours, resulting in widespread flash flooding. Flooding resulted in more than five million dollars damage. Temperatures again warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the southeastern U.S. Lakeland FL and Orlando FL reported record highs of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1991: Sleet fell in the Blue Ridge Mountains as a major coastal storm causing extensive coastal flooding from North Carolina to Massachusetts. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1992: Heavy rain and storm caused erosion from Hatteras to Cape Cod 2-4 inches of rain and 64 mph wind in New Jersey. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)
 

1998: During the weekend of October 17-18, 1998, torrential rains fell over southern and southeast Texas. Up to 22 inches of rain fell, which first resulted in deadly flash flooding from San Antonio to Austin followed by record-breaking river floods along several South Texas rivers the following week. Based on provisional data from the USGS, which is subject to revision, the flood peak for this event was the highest known peak stage at 15 locations. Tragically, a total of 31 people died during the event (26 drownings, two tornado deaths, two heart attacks, and one electrocution/drowning).  At least 17 of the drowning victims were in vehicles that were either driven into water or were swept away by rapidly rising water.  Preliminary property damage estimates approached three-quarters of a billion dollars.

 

1977: Early snow in the Washington Baltimore, MD area and 18 inches in PA. (Ref. Oct. Snowfall History by Herb Close)

 

weird how come no record of snow in our area from this storm?

 

EWR: 90 (1938)
NYC: 90 (1938)

our latest 90 on record, Tony?

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is a function of the tree growth since the 1990s. So the high temperatures have been artificially suppressed by a large margin when the trees are leafed out. Same reason for the summer decline in highs and 90 days over this period. 

Notice how NYC is the only station to show a slight decline in high temperatures from 30 years before and after the new ASOS was put under the trees in 1995. NYC used to measure temperatures out in the open like all other stations do before the station change in 1995.

Once NYC drops the leaves by later in the fall the temperature trends are closer to the other stations. But even then NYC still has a slight cool bias during the winter due to the dense tree growth and lower sun angle enhancing the shade. 
 

 

I thought the climate was warming faster than it is, but apparently that's not the case.

Our first high temperature in the 50s has barely budged Chris.

No wonder most people don't think climate change is a serious issue-- that will only change when months like December 2015 become the norm, and not just for December either.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

at 12:30am EDT, all of BOS, NYC (from the midnight ob), PHL, and DCA have the exact same temp: 50F.  pretty interesting lol.

what about BWI lol

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Such lows are occurring later.

Central Park: 1961-1990: 10/19; 1991-2020: 10/22; 2000-2025: 10/24

JFK: 1961-1990: 10/17; 1991-2020: 10/21; 2000-2025: 10/22

Thanks Don, it looks like JFK has their first 30s before NYC does by a few days.

I don't know what the criteria is for landlords in the 5 boroughs to have to turn on their heating but when I lived in Brooklyn the heat had to be on by November 1st.

After I moved to Long Island I remember seeing in the news that had changed to the first high temperature below 55 and the first low temperature below 40 on or after October 1.

I wonder what the requirements are now?

 

[donsutherland1]

It will turn milder during the weekend. Partly to mostly sunny conditions should prevail. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 60s tomorrow and then upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s on Sunday.

A cold front will move across the region Sunday night. Low pressure will likely form along the front and move across the region. Periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms are likely into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.75" with locally higher amounts appears likely.

In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +1.09 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.328 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.6° (0.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.