Tropical Storm Gabrielle

[Torch Tiger]

26 minutes ago, MANDA said:

 

What garbage.  

does not specifically say "east coast USA".   East coast Bermuda?

[STORMANLI]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I have a thing or two to say! First thing- this might take the cake as the most questionably named TS ever! Second thing- I still don’t see a defined center and they even mentioned it is marginally organized at best. I guess the assumption is it keeps organizing through the day but man that’s a questionable call with multiple circulations within a broad wave 

Totally agree. Hostile environment. So if the 5pm Scatterometer analysis does not find Tropical-Storm force winds, will it attain or tie a record for the shortest-lived named storm?

[MANDA]

10 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

Totally agree. Hostile environment. So if the 5pm Scatterometer analysis does not find Tropical-Storm force winds, will it attain or tie a record for the shortest-lived named storm?

TPC would never pull that plug that quickly.  

[rclab]

32 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

does not specifically say "east coast USA".   East coast Bermuda?

Absolutely right with the Bermuda comment. Stay well, as always.

 

[Seminole]

53 minutes ago, MANDA said:

100%.  Friend sent it to me from Daily Mail.  Daily Mail but still !

Daily mail loves click bait. That is a whopper tale they are spinning for those clicks. 

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I bet Bastardi will have a thing or two to say about this upgrade lol.

Followup:

 JB was surprisingly quiet. All he said was this: “Now, the red-hatched area has been designated Tropical Depression 7, posing a threat to Bermuda but not the U.S.”

 But then he immediately mentioned a possible unexpected “side-show Bob” to form off the SE US.

[MANDA]

25 minutes ago, rclab said:

Absolutely right with the Bermuda comment. Stay well, as always.

 

You realize the population of Bermuda is WELL below 100K never mind MILLIONS.

The article is pure clickbait.

[GaWx]

12Z summary of main ops

-Icon H 250 miles E/SE of Bermuda 9/22-3
-GFS another relatively weak run with a TS over Bermuda but takes 10 days (9/27)!
-CMC H 150 miles E/SE of Bermuda 9/22
-Euro H 200 miles E/SE of Bermuda 9/22
-JMA out to only 72 as a TD recurving
-UKMET: TS ~150 miles E of Bermuda 9/22:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 20.0N 50.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2025 24 20.0N 50.9W 1009 35
0000UTC 19.09.2025 36 20.8N 53.2W 1009 31
1200UTC 19.09.2025 48 21.3N 55.3W 1010 29
0000UTC 20.09.2025 60 22.4N 58.1W 1011 30
1200UTC 20.09.2025 72 23.6N 59.5W 1011 27
0000UTC 21.09.2025 84 25.1N 61.1W 1011 29
1200UTC 21.09.2025 96 26.9N 61.2W 1011 33
0000UTC 22.09.2025 108 29.3N 62.0W 1008 43
1200UTC 22.09.2025 120 31.2N 62.2W 1007 47
0000UTC 23.09.2025 132 33.5N 61.9W 1005 41
1200UTC 23.09.2025 144 36.5N 58.5W 1003 42
0000UTC 24.09.2025 156 39.5N 52.7W 994 43
1200UTC 24.09.2025 168 42.3N 44.3W 982 52

[Wannabehippie]

Definitely a mess, sheared apart by an ULL. 

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/5026dd98-4087-4470-abf3-c589c2404393

 

Plus surrounded by dry sinking air.

[rclab]

50 minutes ago, MANDA said:

You realize the population of Bermuda is WELL below 100K never mind MILLIONS.

The article is pure clickbait.

Understood! I only meant it for the location accuracy to Bermuda. Sadly too many articles use this headline tactic even outside the weather sphere. Stay well, as always ….

[NorthHillsWx]

The Virginia storm was more impressive on satellite than this is 

[Wannabehippie]

Gabrielle looks terrible on satellite photos. Stretched out, mid and low level circulation centers are disconnected. 

https://zoom.earth/storms/gabrielle-2025/

[SI Mailman]

It's a naked swirl

[NorthHillsWx]

Wow what a beautiful naked swirl 

[MANDA]

55 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wow what a beautiful naked swirl 

Pathetic looking and not going anywhere fast as far as intensification that's for sure.  Never should have been upgraded to TS status yesterday.  Leaving it as a depression might have even been generous. What a season thus far.

[GaWx]

 He was slow this time, but Bastardi finally this morning had his expected say about Gabrielle’s current anemic look vs the NC/VA no name system:

What a Joke. Stratocu Swirl Gabrielle

Then Joe compares satellite images of the two:

Gabrielle: now a naked swirl but still being called a TS

Offshore NC/VA nontropical low: was never tropical and thus was never a TS but unlike Gabrielle now it did have some nearby convection/tropical characteristics at this point:

 

  What JB especially doesn’t like is the inconsistency more than whether or not the offshore NC/VA nontropical low should have been named (he was wishy-washy on that). He thinks Gabrielle should be downgraded though I have to admit it still has a very tight tropical swirl unlike no-name.

[Seminole]

57 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 He was slow this time, but Bastardi finally this morning had his expected say about Gabrielle’s current anemic look vs the NC/VA no name system:

What a Joke. Stratocu Swirl Gabrielle

Then Joe compares satellite images of the two:

Gabrielle: now a naked swirl but still being called a TS

Offshore NC/VA nontropical low: was never tropical and thus was never a TS but unlike Gabrielle now it did have some nearby convection/tropical characteristics at this point:

 

  What JB especially doesn’t like is the inconsistency more than whether or not the offshore NC/VA nontropical low should have been named (he was wishy-washy on that). He thinks Gabrielle should be downgraded though I have to admit it still has a very tight tropical swirl unlike no-name.

Maybe the happy middle is naming non tropical storms and use a naming convention that is different than what is used for tropical storms. This would raise public awareness to a certain degree. Off the top of my head, maybe use the NATO Phonetic alphabet for non tropical storms. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_phonetic_alphabet

 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 He was slow this time, but Bastardi finally this morning had his expected say about Gabrielle’s current anemic look vs the NC/VA no name system:

What a Joke. Stratocu Swirl Gabrielle

Then Joe compares satellite images of the two:

Gabrielle: now a naked swirl but still being called a TS

Offshore NC/VA nontropical low: was never tropical and thus was never a TS but unlike Gabrielle now it did have some nearby convection/tropical characteristics at this point:

 

  What JB especially doesn’t like is the inconsistency more than whether or not the offshore NC/VA nontropical low should have been named (he was wishy-washy on that). He thinks Gabrielle should be downgraded though I have to admit it still has a very tight tropical swirl unlike no-name.

IMO, they named this storm before it met tropical cyclone criteria, namely it didn’t have a closed circulation. It has certainly acquired that now, but with 0 convection, this should be a depression at best. I will go on a limb and say, there is NO way this is producing TS force winds right now

[yoda]

560 
WTNT42 KNHC 182053
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 18 2025

Gabrielle continues to fight off strong westerly vertical 
wind shear and significant dry air entrainment this afternoon. 
Some thunderstorms have blossomed on the storm's eastern flank, 
which is an improvement from its naked low-level swirl earlier this 
morning. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on recent 
scatterometer data of at least 40 kt and little in the way of 
change to its structure from earlier this morning.
 
Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for another 
day or so, meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its current 
intensity or weaken slightly during that time. Recent 12Z guidance 
indicates vertical wind shear relaxes and an increasingly moist 
vertical profile should foster a much improved environment for 
strengthening this weekend, with the GFS model trending toward the 
more conducive ECMWF solution. As a result, intensity guidance is 
notable higher on this cycle.  The NHC intensity forecast is raised 
from the previous one, but not as high as the model consensus 
mostly due to continuity. There are a growing number of hurricane 
models that are indicating Gabrielle could approach major hurricane 
strength after the weekend.
 
Gabrielle is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt and should maintain 
this track with a bend toward the northwest over the next few days 
as the storm is steered primarily by a subtropical ridge over the 
central Atlantic.  A turn toward the north and northeast is 
forecast to occur late this weekend and early next week when 
Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge and a frontal 
system approaches from the west.  While the guidance envelope has 
shrunk on this forecast cycle, there are some significant speed 
differences, with the ECMWF/GFS models considerably faster than the 
Google Deep Mind ensemble.  Although no significant changes to the 
forecast were made, confidence remains on the lower side given the 
along-track model spread and an unclear intensity forecast beyond 
48 hours. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle 
over the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 20.8N  52.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 21.5N  54.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 22.6N  56.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 23.9N  58.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 25.3N  59.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  21/0600Z 27.1N  61.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 29.0N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 33.0N  61.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 39.0N  52.5W   80 KT  90 MPH