2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[cold air aloft]

55 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

Not what I wanted to see in the NWS GSP forecast discussion this morning:

 

While the system moves into the area, the colder air
appears to get a slight delay in arrival, thanks in part to a
developing shortwave moving over the southeast. This could create a
brief period of isentropic ascent with moisture lagging, ahead of
the colder air. What this does is help to create a warm nose sooner
than originally expected. A warm nose means more ice/sleet than
snow.

I can tell you how this will play out where I am. It will be in the 20's with sleet/ZR in Buncombe County and rain with temps in the mid 40's  IMBY with roaring SW winds a few hundred feet above me sounding like a 747. Having a warm nose take a way your winter storm is bad enough, but listening to it just adds to the misery lol.

[Hvward]

Nam3km has a smaller warm nose at hr 60 compared the NAM. I think we are going to have to rely on short range models to see if we get a few hours on Saturday of snow before the warm nose interferes. 

[BretWx]

12Z NAM ZR totals are pretty high considering. Especially down here IMBY.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

I had a sheet of ice on my asphalt driveway this morning and almost slipped on my backside. Not expected or forecasted. 

Hunter is right about the short-term guidance. We've been monitoring the Globals for a week now. Attention turns to the shorter range high resolution guidance for more nuanced possibilities.

[BretWx]

12Z ICON is just... nasty w/ ZR. 

[BretWx]

Just an example/reminder of what even .30in of ZR looks like. 

[Met1985]

What an absolute freaking mess.

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[BretWx]

12Z GFS starts precip HR54 through HR90. All ice, an hour or so of rain at the end. 

[Met1985]

Very heavy precipitation coming in as ice or a severe mix.

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[BretWx]

 

[Met1985]

Then back side flow snow.

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[BretWx]

ZR FRAM .90IN IMBY. 

YIKES.

[Met1985]

Crushed. Bye bye power.

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[Met1985]

Long duration flow snow.

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[Hvward]

Just now, Met1985 said:

Long duration flow snow.

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Yep came to post the same thing Met.  With the Great Lakes connection and the very cold temps this is a good setup for NWFS.  Kind of seeing a deformation feature developing on the backside, that could help as well.  Nonetheless this is looking to be a solid 48 hour event that will have major impacts.  I am hoping that the rain comes in Sunday afternoon and melts some ice that develops.  That could be a big saving grace especially for the SW mountains.  Tough forecast here for sure.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

This sure looking like 48 to possibly a near 60 hour event for precipitation for the Mountains. Ugly ugly ugly. There is nothing good about this Major Winter Storm approaching catastrophic if these trends continue.