BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:18 PM NW flow chances just keep looking better next week. Nice little piece of energy keeps digging into the base of that trough on the models. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Wednesday at 12:48 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:48 PM Things look to get real interesting the end of the weekend around here. Will make a longer post this evening. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Wednesday at 10:42 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:42 PM Glad this weather is in it's way out. Low of 36 and a high of 73. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Wednesday at 11:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:03 PM Maybe an SSW but in general I like seeing the PV in a weakened state. We really don't need an SSW for blocking. Keep the PV weak and we will get our chances. This would lead us into December. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Wednesday at 11:05 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:05 PM From Ryan MaueJust exclaimed to an esteemed colleague how gobsmacking it was to see -40°C contour at 500 mb over Indiana on November 10th -- so unlikely to be nearly impossible in 2025 let alone 175-years ago in 1850. Historic cold -- we get to experience the pre-industrial climate in 2025!This is extremely impressive. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Wednesday at 11:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:08 PM Possible wind chills Tuesday morning. Exceptional!Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 12:50 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:50 AM 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: From Ryan Maue Just exclaimed to an esteemed colleague how gobsmacking it was to see -40°C contour at 500 mb over Indiana on November 10th -- so unlikely to be nearly impossible in 2025 let alone 175-years ago in 1850. Historic cold -- we get to experience the pre-industrial climate in 2025! This is extremely impressive. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Absolutely amazing ! Guaranteed heavy duty lake effect. Expect Models to uptick Snow Forcasted Amounts if this continues showing up until game time. Also, possibly a Synoptic Snow event as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 12:51 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:51 AM 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Maybe an SSW but in general I like seeing the PV in a weakened state. We really don't need an SSW for blocking. Keep the PV weak and we will get our chances. This would lead us into December. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Agree completely.. sometimes a SSW Event can foul up a good Pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 12:54 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:54 AM 12 hours ago, Met1985 said: Things look to get real interesting the end of the weekend around here. Will make a longer post this evening. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk That would put even Valley Locations in the upper 20's to lower 30's by 4 P.M. ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Thursday at 11:00 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:00 AM Not bad. Im going to wait until tomorrow to really dive into this thing and see where this goes.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Thursday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:11 PM This is interesting. Model data continues to struggle with extended range cold fronts. Week 1 GWHDDs running 25+ points colder than forecast for the next 7 days this time last week. Operational data has performed slightly better. This might be a case where the "colder" GFS has some merit for week 2.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted Thursday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:20 PM Looks like the 12Z Suite of guidance has come in a bit better agreement regarding the NWFS event Sunday night into Tuesday. Temperatures are really going to shock the system with windchill values in the single digits and highs on Monday not getting above freezing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted yesterday at 02:41 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:41 PM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted yesterday at 03:27 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:27 PM 44 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Expecting a pretty intense blizzard here and making final preps this weekend. If that upper low takes the euro track, look out! Looks like 50 mph winds, temps in the teens and snow squalls. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago GSP first snowfall map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopack42 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago I'm excited for everyone for the upcoming event. Unfortunately I'll be headed to South America over the weekend so I won't be home to take it all in. Hope y'all get slammed! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Strong storms moving through. Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-Yancey NC-Madison NC- 1014 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MADISON...NORTH CENTRAL HAYWOOD...NORTHERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EST... At 1014 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles northwest of Marshall to 16 miles southeast of Newport. Movement was east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago Currently 45 with a very loud thunderstorm and rain/graupel in Wolf.The 0z high res Canadian and 3km nam are looking good along the border for Sunday night and Monday. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 1 hour ago, Buckethead said: Currently 45 with a very loud thunderstorm and rain/graupel in Wolf. The 0z high res Canadian and 3km nam are looking good along the border for Sunday night and Monday. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Hopefully the Canadian will be right. 3k looks rather paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Some very impressive storms last night and this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Overnight Euro looks really good. Looks to start fast and furious around midnight Monday morning. This looks like a classic mid-winter upslope snow event. I do think there will be spots that see close to a foot especially right along the border. It's going to be very windy, temps will crash, and this will feel like January. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago GFS is not as impressive but the Euro has been leading the way this week in my opinion. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago The 12z 3k nam and RDPS are looking very similar Sunday evening.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The GFS finally has shifted the secondary cold core upper low south into the Mountains. That secondary feature has the potential for a heavy burst of snow that could break containment and spill into the foothills. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said: The GFS finally has shifted the secondary cold core upper low south into the Mountains. That secondary feature has the potential for a heavy burst of snow that could break containment and spill into the foothills. Finally having to the Euro. Euro has done well this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 24 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said: The GFS finally has shifted the secondary cold core upper low south into the Mountains. That secondary feature has the potential for a heavy burst of snow that could break containment and spill into the foothills. I’m looking forward to it. *When* we get the containment breakers, my location tends to do pretty well. It never accumulates but typically some solid flizzard action. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted 23 minutes ago Share Posted 23 minutes ago Definitely fun for you border guys !!! From GSP, a little snippet: Tight pressure gradient (4-6mb) with ongoing snow and dynamical features aloft will support sporadic blizzard conditions at the highest elevations (>4000`) along the immediate Tennessee border. Soundings from the CAMs are picking up on very shallow instability, which should only increase snowfall rates, especially in the favorable upslope areas in the Smokies, northern Madison County, and the Roan Mountain area. Perhaps an instance of thunder snow can`t be ruled out either, but good luck finding the exact location where this might occur 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 11 minutes ago Share Posted 11 minutes ago It's coming guys. This will be a great early upslope event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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