E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion

[RedSky]

Ai euro sounds similar to the op

 

[ChescoWx]

A wee bit different take at the 850mb level between the GFS and European 12z....if GFS is right it rains up to MPO.

[ChescoWx]

[simbasad2]

Maybe I sound weenie but I'll say it: When the Euro and GFS disagree on a storm like this, 9 times out of 10 the Euro will end up being correct

[Fields27]

A wee bit different take at the 850mb level between the GFS and European 12z....if GFS is right it rains up to MPO.

Insane difference for only 100 hrs out.

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[Ralph Wiggum]

Gotta admire the CMC. Giving us all snow entire event even down to SE PA.

[MJO812]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Gotta admire the CMC. Giving us all snow entire event even down to SE PA.

Rgem also

Gfs also trended weaker. I wonder if its going to fold.

[RedSky]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Gotta admire the CMC. Giving us all snow entire event even down to SE PA.

What about the GFS

[LVblizzard]

32 minutes ago, RedSky said:

What about the GFS

Torch. It’s the GFS/NAM/ICON vs. everyone else right now.

[Hurricane Agnes]

I heard some roaring and it wasn't the wind... it was this forum kicking into gear as something trackable emerges! 

Of course a concern would be the SSTs along the coast.

The 6z GFS verbatim wants to do a Miller A type thing, out of the Gulf and up the coast.

As an OBS, my low this morning was 30 and it's currently 34 with dp 23, so cold dry air out there (something that would have to moisten up if any rain has a chance here Sunday).

[ChescoWx]

This morning was the coldest morning (26.1) here in East Nantmeal since last April 9th at 25.8. Warwick was the area cold spot at 22.1 degrees this morning. Sunny and chilly today with highs struggling to escape the 30's in the hills with low 40's in the valleys. Clouds increase tonight with some light snow or a mix of rain/snow arriving tomorrow morning before a quick change to plain rain. Monday looks sunny before snow arrives toward Tuesday morning. We should see a pretty steady transition from snow to rain from SE to NW across the area. The best chances for a small accumulation will be across far NW Chester County and into Berks and Lehigh counties. We keep temperatures well below normal all week with the coldest weather of the season arriving to close out the week. Temperatures on Friday may not even reach freezing for high temperatures.

[LVblizzard]

Don’t look at the NAM…massive torch for everyone including the Poconos.

I’m writing it off as the NAM being the NAM. Just posted my first call on my page, I think the Lehigh Valley sees 1-3” followed by a wintry mix and rain.

[ChescoWx]

The 6z Euro ensemble and probability of 1" of snow. For Chesco from 40% in SE to 70% in NW....if I was a betting man or forecaster I would take the under. I suspect mainly rain to a slushy inch until North of ABE.

[Birds~69]

Blizzard cancel?

[JTA66]

Weenie handbook rule #1: Go with the model showing the most snow!

Got the final mow of the season in (more like final leaf mulch). Should it actually snow this year, the grass is nice and short so the lawn will quickly cave.

[ChescoWx]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

23 hours ago, RedSky said:

Euro op runs the rain/snow line near route 202 

5-6" the I78 corridor

 

How much do you think for EWR?

[Birds~69]

23 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Weenie handbook rule #1: Go with the model showing the most snow!

Got the final mow of the season in (more like final leaf mulch). Should it actually snow this year, the grass is nice and short so the lawn will quickly cave.

Is cutting the grass short before winter in the weenie handbook? If not, it should. I would place it in the same section as having a 1.21 gigawatt snow light...

 

[ChescoWx]

Latest European models 1/2 inch across SE Chesco to as much as 3" in NW Chesco and on up to the LV

[RedSky]

Right or wrong the euro is consistent with the 202 rain/snow line

 

[RedSky]

46 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

How much do you think for EWR?

Around 1" on the euro but that is the whitest guidance

 

[RedSky]

Deja vu to last winter where the euro was often the snowiest

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

12z EC showing that line in the dirt and Lehigh Valley Special...

[Duca892]

Put me down for 1.5in here in Whitehall PA and I’ll gladly take that as an early season snow

[mattinpa]

6 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Put me down for 1.5in here in Whitehall PA and I’ll gladly take that as an early season snow

Couple inches would be a nice holiday start. 

[ChescoWx]

European ensemble snow greater than 1 inch probability has increased a bit at 12z with the 50% line down to Philly

[simbasad2]

Drew up this quick map to outline some of my thoughts for this storm. Constructive feedback is appreciated!

Blue - All Snow expected, accumulations around 2-4" localized 4"+

Pink - Snow, mix, and rain expected. A sharp cutoff will develop here and a slushy 0-2" will fall before changing over to rain, some of which could be heavy

Green - All rain. Perhaps maybe a light mix at onset but this will quickly change over. Air temps closer to the shore could even reach into the lower 50s. Some rain could be heavy at times

 

[JTA66]

1 hour ago, mattinpa said:

Couple inches would be a nice holiday start. 

This time of year, I’d be happy just to see flakes fly regardless if they amount to anything.

[Ralph Wiggum]

While y'all are discussing an early season slop to cold rain situation, I happened across this today while setting up the Christmas inflatables. Early spring?

[JTA66]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

While y'all are discussing an early season slop to cold rain situation, I happened across this today while setting up the Christmas inflatables. Early spring?

We do spring in winter well.