September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[SACRUS]

 

Stations now set for a +1 to +2.4 for the month (Sep) Dep's

[rclab]

41 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Average high temp for central park for oct will likely be in the mid 70s. It will be like a typical September temperature wise.

 

33 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yep we always pay heavily for those rare cooldowns. It's so biased towards warmth now its not even funny.

 

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Were that to happen, that would set a new record. The record is 72.5° in 1947.

 

31 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

It's trivial for us to break high temp records now, as long as they're taken over a long enough period.

 

18 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Dude you need to chill, do you realize what you're typing?

Mid 70s for the whole month of October? So a +10 monthly anomaly for highs huh?

And you're basing this on what exactly?

 

 

11 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Uh .. this can happen nowadays. Look at Jan 2023, it was a +10 anomaly the whole month. Plus it's not even that unprecedented. 1947 had an average high of 72.5, which means we can easily beat that now. Also to get an average high temp of 75 you don't need mid 70s every day.

 

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

You can't compare extremes that occur in winter to Fall. There's a reason there's no +10 month in summer for example. 

Going another +2.5 over the warmest October monthly average maximum is a big deal. 

October 1947 btw finished +5.7. 

Good morning everyone. The question/prediction of extremes can enhance passion. I viewed an accu weather advance forecast for October and it looked like an average high may fall, for my area of the Coastal Plain, a little over 67 degrees, for an average high. Granted that the long range forecast will probably change with every A W update. It’s still far from the low to mid 70’s average high that will probably be reached in the decades to come. Stay well, as always.

 

[Sundog]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

can we end the month with an 8 day streak of 80s?

You should get one more today. 

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

You should get one more today. 

and tomorrow and tuesday

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

and tomorrow and tuesday

We'll see if clouds tuesday get in the way.

[donsutherland1]

32 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Uh .. this can happen nowadays. Look at Jan 2023, it was a +10 anomaly the whole month. Plus it's not even that unprecedented. 1947 had an average high of 72.5, which means we can easily beat that now. Also to get an average high temp of 75 you don't need mid 70s every day.

It's not easy. A month like December 2015 is a rarity. 

Let's have a look at the difficulty involved. The warmer models show a mean high of 73.0° for October 1-10. That means that October 11-31 would need a mean high of 76.0° to bring the average monthly high to 75.0°. The warmest October 11-31 period is 1947 with a mean high of 73.4°. The latest-season 21-day period with a mean temperature of 76.0° or above was September 28-October 18, 1954 with a mean high of 76.0°.

So, to get the 75.0° mean monthly high, something extraordinary would have to occur given current guidance, climatology, and historic extremes. One would probably need an extended bout of record and near-record high temperatures somewhere in the 21-day period, assuming that the guidance for October 1-10 is reasonably accurate.

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

and tomorrow and tuesday

Tomorrow looks like upper 70s even for the warmer spots. 

Only your area has such an 80s streak going btw, all other official stations have had between 1 and 3 days 80 or above. 

Even Newark couldn't maintain the streak, they've had two days of highs of 79 over the last 8 days. 

[SACRUS]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Tomorrow looks like upper 70s even for the warmer spots. 

Only your area has such an 80s streak going btw, all other official stations have had between 1 and 3 days 80 or above. 

Even Newark couldn't maintain the streak, they've had two days of highs of 79 over the last 8 days. 

 

EWR N/C - NJ (New Brunswick) has had 5 straight with today 6 and tomorrow likely back to the low 80s for there.  Tue is the caveat with clouds much of the day.

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

EWR N/C - NJ (New Brunswick) has had 5 straight with today 6 and tomorrow likely back to the low 80s for there.  Tue is the caveat with clouds much of the day.

My bad Newark has had 5 days in a row with the coldest day being 80. 

For Newark when I looked up the monthly data the tool defaulted to the last full month of records so I was looking at August instead of September!

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

.05"

I got 0.16" here. More than I thought we'd get, but still not enough to help very much. Lots of watering will be needed with pretty much no rain in sight. 

[SnoSki14]

Honestly wouldn't be surprised to go from summer to winter in a hurry. That's been the case lately 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's a big ridge in the east. There's near 90F temps well into Canada forecast 

Over the top heat though. They've been hot all summer.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Honestly wouldn't be surprised to go from summer to winter in a hurry. That's been the case lately 

Depends on what you mean by winter.  If you mean 40s and rain.....

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's not easy. A month like December 2015 is a rarity. 

Let's have a look at the difficulty involved. The warmer models show a mean high of 73.0° for October 1-10. That means that October 11-31 would need a mean high of 76.0° to bring the average monthly high to 75.0°. The warmest October 11-31 period is 1947 with a mean high of 73.4°. The latest-season 21-day period with a mean temperature of 76.0° or above was September 28-October 18, 1954 with a mean high of 76.0°.

So, to get the 75.0° mean monthly high, something extraordinary would have to occur given current guidance, climatology, and historic extremes. One would probably need an extended bout of record and near-record high temperatures somewhere in the 21-day period, assuming that the guidance for October 1-10 is reasonably accurate.

How many standard deviations for a month like December 2015 vs one like February 2015 Don? And December 1989?

The departures were similar but in opposite directions.

 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Depends on what you mean by winter.  If you mean 40s and rain.....

I should have specified "our" version of winter so yes 40s and rain

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

You can't compare extremes that occur in winter to Fall. There's a reason there's no +10 month in summer for example. 

Going another +2.5 over the warmest October monthly average maximum is a big deal. 

October 1947 btw finished +5.7. 

Yes the planet has a cap about how hot it can get, that's why even with climate change, Death Valley has never gotten hotter than 130 degrees (confirmed).

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, steve392 said:

Mid 60's leaving my house but it felt like a brick wall i was walking through with the humidity.  Disgusting out and sun isn't even up yet.

it felt like a sauna this morning, I've had my a/c on since the middle of the night and even with it on it felt like a sauna

[qg_omega]

50 minutes ago, rclab said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good morning everyone. The question/prediction of extremes can enhance passion. I viewed an accu weather advance forecast for October and it looked like an average high may fall, for my area of the Coastal Plain, a little over 67 degrees, for an average high. Granted that the long range forecast will probably change with every A W update. It’s still far from the low to mid 70’s average high that will probably be reached in the decades to come. Stay well, as always.

 

This is worthless 

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Records:

High:

EWR: 87 (2014)
NYC: 88 (1881)
LGA: 84 (2014)
JFK: 82 (1948)

Lows:

 

EWR: 38 (1947)
NYC: 41 (1947)
LGA: 42 (1947)
JFK: 44 (1989)

Historical: 

 

1836 - The first of three early season snows brought four inches of snow to Hamilton, NY, and two inches to Ashby MA. (David Ludlum)

1837: The first recorded storm to rake the entire Texas coast was Racer’s Storm, named for a British sloop of war which encountered the system in the extreme northwestern Caribbean on September 28th. It is remembered as one of the most destructive storms of the nineteenth century due to its extreme duration and 2000 mile path of destruction.

1874 - A strong category 1 hurricane went by Charleston and Georgetown, South Carolina. The tide was unprecedented height, inundating the entire riverfront of the city of Charleston.

1893 - Albuquerque, NM, was soaked with 2.25 inches of rain, enough to establish a 24 hour record for that city. (The Weather Channel)

1917 - A hurricane hit Pensacola, FL. Winds gusted to 95 mph, and the barometric pressure dipped to 28.50 inches. Winds at Mobile AL gusted to 75 mph. (The Weather Channel)

1929 - A hurricane-spawned tornado hit Fort Lauderdale, Florida. While the path length of this estimated F2 tornado was 0.8 miles, it caused 16 injuries.

1947: Boston, Massachusetts recorded its highest September pressure of 30.66 inches of mercury. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1974: Belleville Ill.--Lightning killed a man who was playing football in a park. Orlando, Fla.--A 20-year-old Naval Training Center student was killed while jogging. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1984: Coolest September day ever recorded in Washington, DC. The maximum was 51 °F and the minimum was 47°F.
(Ref. Washington Weather Records) Richmond, Virginia had a high temperature for the day of 52 °F making it the coolest September day on record (records since 1897). (Ref. Richmond Weather Records)

1986: Flash flooding swept a car off the Kamehameha Highway on Oahu, Hawaii, and into a swollen stream. The driver held onto some branches until help arrived, but the current did strip him of his clothes and watch! (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)


1987 - Thunderstorms produced up to ten inches of rain in southern Kansas and north central Oklahoma overnight. The Chikaskia River rose 2.5 feet above flood stage at Blackwell OK during the day causing flooding in Kay and Grant counties of north central Oklahoma. Early morning thunderstorms in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas produced 3.07 inches of rain in six hours at McAllen. Thunderstorms produced up to six inches of rain in southeastern Texas later in the day. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front in the central U.S. produced severe weather from northern Texas to the Lower Missouri Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours. Hail three inches in diameter was reported at Nolan TX, and wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at Lawrence KS. Thunderstorms drenched downtown Kansas City MO with up to four inches of rain, leaving some cars stranded in water six feet deep. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms over northeastern Florida drenched Jacksonville with 4.28 inches of rain between midnight and 6 AM EDT. Unseasonably cool weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Five cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Binghamton NY with a reading of 30 degrees. Morning lows were in the 20s in northern New England. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S., with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and 80s. In Oregon, Astoria reported a record high of 83 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1998: On the morning of September 28th, Hurricane George made landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi with maximum winds of 110 mph and a minimum pressure of 964 mb, making it a Category 2 hurricane. After landfall, Georges moved very slowly across southern Mississippi and weakened to a tropical depression by the morning of the 29th when the center was about 30 miles north-northeast of Mobile, Alabama. The storm dissipated near the northeast Florida/southeast Georgia coast by the morning of October 1, 1998. 

Records:

High:

EWR: 87 (2014)
NYC: 88 (1881)
LGA: 84 (2014)
JFK: 82 (1948)

Lows:

 

EWR: 38 (1947)
NYC: 41 (1947)
LGA: 42 (1947)
JFK: 44 (1989)

1989 - Thunderstorms over northeastern Florida drenched Jacksonville with 4.28 inches of rain between midnight and 6 AM EDT. Unseasonably cool weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Five cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Binghamton NY with a reading of 30 degrees. Morning lows were in the 20s in northern New England. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S., with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and 80s. In Oregon, Astoria reported a record high of 83 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

Interesting variance between this winters

Lots of snow in 1947 and 2014 after record heat on this date

Record cold in 1989 which continued with some volatility right through December then record warmth January through March lol.

 

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How many standard deviations for a month like December 2015 vs one like February 2015 Don? And December 1989?

The departures were similar but in opposite directions.

 

December 2015: 3.71 sigma above the 1991-2020 mean

February 2015: 2.71 sigma below the 1991-2020 mean

December 1989: 2.78 sigma below the 1971-2000 mean (3.30 sigma below the 1991–2020 mean).

For the full climate record: +3.41 sigma, -2.07 sigma, and -2.41 sigma respectively.

[Sundog]

December 2015 would have qualified as a top ten warmest November, it was the most insane departures I've ever seen. 

Ironically right after one of the coldest February and March we had in a long long time. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

December 2015: 3.71 sigma above the 1991-2020 mean

February 2015: 2.71 sigma below the 1991-2020 mean

December 1989: 2.78 sigma below the 1971-2000 mean (3.30 sigma below the 1991–2020 mean).

For the full climate record: +3.41 sigma, -2.07 sigma, and -2.41 sigma respectively.

Thanks Don, as I remember them I believe December 2015 was the most strongly positive deviation of my lifetime in the winter and December 1989 was the most strongly negative. So going back to the 1976-77 winter at least?

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

December 2015 would have qualified as a top ten warmest November, it was the most insane departures I've ever seen. 

Ironically right after one of the coldest February and March we had in a long long time. 

that was a very exciting winter in 2014-15 and in general a very exciting period between 2009 and 2018.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that was a very exciting winter in 2014-15 and in general a very exciting period between 2009 and 2018.

The Long Island Sound froze during winter 2014-15. That hasn’t happened since then.

[rclab]

52 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

This is worthless 

You must realize that extreme statements ruled by passion are often, more than not, also worthless. As always …..

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Long Island Sound froze during winter 2014-15. That hasn’t happened since then.

Don would people have been able to walk from Long Island to Connecticut and vice versa?

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Everything was blindingly bright  this morning being wet from the rain I wasn't supposed to get and the Sun shining brightly with totally clear skies. 

I love bright sunny days with deep blue skies so I'm happy.  The contrast between today and later in the week when we again have deep blue skies but much cooler weather will be very interesting.