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September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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bluewave
bluewave
Roger Smith
Roger Smith

"1821: A hurricane made landfall at Long Island, near Kennedy Airport, then moved through western Connecticut." Plenty of cancelled flights, no doubt.  

xram
xram

I never get sick of that view. I live less than a mile from the Viaduct. That view never disappoints in the fall or anytime of year really

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The consistency has been remarkable.

Smallest Mean Temperature Standard Deviation for September (through September 25th for 2025) for Central Park:

1. 1968 3.43°
2. 2025 3.75° (10th smallest difference between the mean temperatures for the first and second halves of September)
3. 1870 3.81° (6th smallest difference between the mean temperatures for the first and second halves of September)
4. 2024 3.94°
5. 1908 4.08°

where is September 1983 on this list, Don?

It was continuously hot!

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Rainfall amounts in the New York City area were generally less than the 0.50"-1.50" forecast amounts. There was a stripe of heavier rainfall in parts of Connecticut.

Storm total amounts included:

Hartford: 1.72"
Islip: 0.30"
New Haven: 1.34"
New York City-Central Park: 0.35"
New York City-JFK Airport: 1.38"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.33"
Newark: 0.17"
Storrs: 2.76"
White Plains: 0.47"

As a result, New York City is on track to finish with rainfall that is below the 4.31" monthly normal value for September. Almost as if to add insult to injury to the dry New York City area, in the past hour, Phoenix has picked up 1.09" of rain, along with winds gusting to 56 mph. The 1.11" so far today is its biggest rainstorm since October 13, 2018.

Above normal temperatures will continue through the remainder of September. Another round of showers is possible Saturday night into Sunday. A significant rainfall is unlikely.

The guidance and historical experience following a second half September mean temperature of 70° or above suggest that October will be warmer than normal in the New York City area. The two most recent Octobers with a cooler than normal first half like 2025 and a second half with a mean temperature of 70° or above were: 2017 (October mean temperature: 64.1° and October 2019: October mean temperature 59.9°).

The extent of ridging to the north and interaction between the Humberto and Invest. 94 could ultimately determine whether Invest. 94 poses an eventual threat to a portion of the Southeast or stays out to sea.

The potential Fujiwhara interaction would be unusual for the Atlantic basin. Typically, if the stronger system is to the right or east of the weaker one (possibly Invest. 94 as per most of the guidance at present), the stronger system will tend to deflect the weaker one northward and eastward sooner than might otherwise be the case. If both systems are of similar strength, they can rotate counterclockwise around a midpoint roughly between the centers of the two storms as they move along the steering flow. Two plausible scenarios are landfall along the South Carolina coast or a sharp turn out to sea after an approach toward the coastline. 

For now, tropics bear watching for the Southeast. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +9.81 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.341 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.1° (0.9° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

Hartford: 1.72"
Islip: 0.30"
New Haven: 1.34"
New York City-Central Park: 0.35"
New York City-JFK Airport: 1.38"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.33"
Newark: 0.17"
Storrs: 2.76"
White Plains: 0.47"

Don are you sure JFK got so much rain? I saw a report of around 0.58 from that area.

 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Hartford: 1.72"
Islip: 0.30"
New Haven: 1.34"
New York City-Central Park: 0.35"
New York City-JFK Airport: 1.38"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.33"
Newark: 0.17"
Storrs: 2.76"
White Plains: 0.47"

Don are you sure JFK got so much rain? I saw a report of around 0.58 from that area.

 

Yes. That’s what the NWS reported.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Multiple record warm high and low temperatures at Islip in late September have raised it to the 5th warmest September on record. Numerous top 10 warmest finishes in recent years. Since the new 1991-2020 climate normals are so warm, it only took a +1.7 departure to reach a top 10 warmest ranking.

  

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0432 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 85 DEGREES SET IN 1970.


  

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
234 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2025

...RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24 AT
ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 69
DEGREES, SET IN 1970. RECORDS FOR THE ISLIP NY AREA GO BACK TO 1963.


  

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0433 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2025

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 85 DEGREES SET IN 1983.

RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2015 70.9 0
2 2005 70.2 0
3 2018 69.8 0
4 2021 69.6 0
- 1980 69.6 0
5 2025 69.3 4
6 2017 69.0 0
- 2011 69.0 0
7 2016 68.9 0
8 2023 68.6 0
- 1998 68.6 0
9 2010 68.3 0
10 2022 68.2 0
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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes why are people talking about an October torch when it's supposed to turn chilly as soon as October starts?

 

Coole r E/ENE flow looks for 2 days 10/2-10/3 before ridge builds in with warmer flow.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

 

61 / 59 partly / mostly cloudy.   Warm today but clouds building in so 80s may be tough but close with any amount of sun later this morning / earlt afternoon.  Rain overnight likely aimed at southern areas but should get north with some light rain.  Dry out warm up Sunday and Monday.   Imelda and Humberto tango and look to pull out, we get a cooler NE flow 10/2 - 10/3 before ridge buiilds inand and an overall warmer beyond there.  RIdge east / trough west.  Rain tonight will be the best chance for the next 5 days at least.

 

9/27 - 9/30 :  Much warmer than normal - some rain Sat overnight into Sunday
10/1 :   Near normal - cooling
10/2 - 10/4 : Cooler ENE/NE flow
10/5  - Beyond :   Warmer - much warmer than normal

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 91 (1998)
NYC: 90 (1933)
LGA: 90 (1988)
JFK: 89 (1998)


Lows:

EWR: 35 (1947)
NYC: 41 (1957)
LGA: 43 (1947)
JFK: 46 (2000)

Historical:

 

1816 - A black frost over most of New England kills unripened corn in the north resulting in a year of famine. (David Ludlum)

 

1822: Using various documents and meteorological observations determined a hurricane moved ashore on this day in South Carolina. One account from Bull Island, South Carolina records the eye passing directly over that location.


1822: Mail south of Richmond was unable to be delivered for three days, as the storm rendered roads impassable. At Monticello, near Charlottesville, Thomas Jefferson's granddaughter noted that a violent storm broke branches and felled one of their willows. At Lynchburg, winds uprooted trees and toppled chimneys. Along the Staunton River, rains began on the 27th and continued until 9 a.m. the next day. The river rose to "the greatest height ever known." (Chapman) (Ref. for Charleston Hurricane)
 

1906: The second September storm of 1906 was one of great violence. On the 27th the hurricane reached the central Gulf Coast with destructive winds and unprecedented tides. At Pensacola, FL, the tide was 10 feet above normal. At Mobile, AL property damage was severe. An estimated 134 lives were lost from Pensacola, FL to Mississippi from this storm.


1936: Denver, Colorado: Early season snowstorm buries Denver. Storm total of 21.3 inches falls at airport in 60 hours. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1942: Snowflakes flew across parts of Lower Michigan as temperatures fall to the lower 30s and only rose into the 40s during the day. Fort Wayne, IN reported a trace of snow on this date and two days prior. These dates remain the only two September snowfalls on record at that location. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1955: The U.S. Weather Bureau's station on Swan Island in the western Caribbean was destroyed as Hurricane Janet passed very close to the island. Winds gusts were estimated to have reached 200 mph. Janet made landfall at Chetumal, Mexico early on the 28th where winds were sustained at 175 mph and the pressure dropped to 914 millibars or 27.00 inches of mercury. Over 500 people were killed and damage exceeded $40 million. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1958: Hurricane Helene passed just off the North Carolina coast. Wilmington had sustained winds of 88 mph with a peak gust of 135 mph, a record and recorded 8.29 inches of rain. Cape Fear was battered by sustained winds of 125 mph with gusts to 155 mph. This was a near miss however as the eye remained about 20 miles offshore and thus the tides were not excessive. Total damage was $11 million dollars. (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1959 - A tornado 440 yards in width traveled twenty miles from near Hollow, OK, to western Cherokee County KS. Although a strong tornado, it was very slow moving, and gave a tremendous warning roar, and as a result no one was killed. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - Afternoon highs of 103 degrees at Long Beach, CA, and 105 degrees at the Los Angeles Civic Center were the hottest since September records were established in 1963. Fierce Santa Ana winds accompanying the extreme heat resulted in destructive fires. (The Weather Channel)

1985 - A record early season snowstorm struck the Central High Plains Region. The storm left up to nineteen inches of snow along the Colorado Front Range, and as much as a foot of snow in the High Plains Region. (Storm Data)

1985 - Hurricane Gloria swept over the Outer Banks then rushed across Long Island, New England, and Canada. It was the first significant hurricane to hit New England in twenty-five years and brought heavy rains and high winds to the Mid-Atlantic states as well.

984
Tropical Storm Isidore made landfall near West Palm Beach during the morning hours. From there it moved slowly to near Orlando in the evening, then recurved to the northeast and crossed over Jacksonville and out to sea the next day. The highest wind gust was 73 mph near St. Augustine. Rainfall of 5 to 7 inches in north Florida caused local flooding.
Heavy snow fell across parts of the Plains and Colorado Foothills. Snowfall totals ranged from 2 to 5 inches across the Plains with up to a foot in the higher elevations in the Foothills. The main problem caused by the storm was thousands of power outages caused by snapped tree limbs falling on power lines. Some cars were damaged by falling trees and limbs. The snow also caused flight delays at Denver where just over 5 inches of snow fell. The high temperature the next day in Denver only managed to make it to 34°, a record low maximum for the date and equaled the all-time September record up to that time.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1985: Hurricane Gloria today makes landfall on western Long Island, New York with sustained winds of 85 mph. (gusts to 115 mph.), moving at 35 mph., Pressure 28.37 inches or 961 mb. and a storm surge of 4- 7 feet above Mean Tide. Hurricane Gloria was one of the most intensely reported events of the 1980's. Gloria hit New York and Connecticut as a moderate hurricane in September 1985. Although Gloria was not a major hurricane when it struck Connecticut, it was significantly more damaging to Connecticut than Hurricane Belle (1976) and Hurricane Donna (1960). Gloria at one time had a central pressure of 919 mb (27.13 in.), and sustained winds of 150 mph. - making Gloria almost a category five hurricane. At this time, Gloria was one of the largest and most intense cyclones to ever threaten the middle and north Atlantic states in several generations. Gloria brushed the North Carolina Outer Banks near midnight on September 27, with sustained winds of 105-mph and a central pressure of 27.83 inches (942 mb). The Diamond Shoals light-tower sixteen -miles off the North Carolina coast, recorded sustained winds of 98-mph with gusts to 120-mph. Gloria continued to accelerate northward off the eastern US coast brushing the coast of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey with hurricane-force gusts. Gloria finally crossed the coast of the United States mainland near western Long island, New York about 10-miles east of Kennedy International Airport. Passing over central Long Island, Gloria crossed the Connecticut coast near Bridgeport about 40-minutes later with sustained winds of 80-mph.

1987 - While those at the base of Mount Washington, NH, enjoyed sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s, the top of the mountain was blanketed with 4.7 inches of snow, along with wind gusts to 99 mph, and a temperature of 13 degrees. Severe thunderstorms developed along a cold front in the south central U.S. A thunderstorm west of Noodle TX produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced large hail in southeastern Wyoming during the afternoon, with tennis ball size hail reported at Cheyenne. Strong winds ushering the cold air into the north central U.S. gusted to 59 mph at Lander WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Freezing temperatures were reported in the Great Lakes Region and the Ohio Valley. Houghton Lake MI reported a record low of 21 degrees. Thunderstorms in the western U.S. produced wind gusts to 50 mph at Salt Lake City UT, and gusts to 58 mph at Cody WY.(The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2014: A squall line impacted central Arizona, including the Phoenix Metro area. 

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Sundog

Sundog

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Cfa said:

Made it up to 87 here, I wish this happened tomorrow (Saturday) instead.

This year has really been a snoozefest on all fronts, the only exception being the 100+ degree heat in June and July.

 

We did have that major flooding event in East Queens and Western Nassau during the summer too. 

But obviously that's localized. But extremely rare either way. 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 91 (1998)
NYC: 90 (1933)
LGA: 90 (1988)
JFK: 89 (1998)


Lows:

EWR: 35 (1947)
NYC: 41 (1957)
LGA: 43 (1947)
JFK: 46 (2000)

Historical:

 

1816 - A black frost over most of New England kills unripened corn in the north resulting in a year of famine. (David Ludlum)

 

1822: Using various documents and meteorological observations determined a hurricane moved ashore on this day in South Carolina. One account from Bull Island, South Carolina records the eye passing directly over that location.


1822: Mail south of Richmond was unable to be delivered for three days, as the storm rendered roads impassable. At Monticello, near Charlottesville, Thomas Jefferson's granddaughter noted that a violent storm broke branches and felled one of their willows. At Lynchburg, winds uprooted trees and toppled chimneys. Along the Staunton River, rains began on the 27th and continued until 9 a.m. the next day. The river rose to "the greatest height ever known." (Chapman) (Ref. for Charleston Hurricane)
 

1906: The second September storm of 1906 was one of great violence. On the 27th the hurricane reached the central Gulf Coast with destructive winds and unprecedented tides. At Pensacola, FL, the tide was 10 feet above normal. At Mobile, AL property damage was severe. An estimated 134 lives were lost from Pensacola, FL to Mississippi from this storm.


1936: Denver, Colorado: Early season snowstorm buries Denver. Storm total of 21.3 inches falls at airport in 60 hours. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1942: Snowflakes flew across parts of Lower Michigan as temperatures fall to the lower 30s and only rose into the 40s during the day. Fort Wayne, IN reported a trace of snow on this date and two days prior. These dates remain the only two September snowfalls on record at that location. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1955: The U.S. Weather Bureau's station on Swan Island in the western Caribbean was destroyed as Hurricane Janet passed very close to the island. Winds gusts were estimated to have reached 200 mph. Janet made landfall at Chetumal, Mexico early on the 28th where winds were sustained at 175 mph and the pressure dropped to 914 millibars or 27.00 inches of mercury. Over 500 people were killed and damage exceeded $40 million. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1958: Hurricane Helene passed just off the North Carolina coast. Wilmington had sustained winds of 88 mph with a peak gust of 135 mph, a record and recorded 8.29 inches of rain. Cape Fear was battered by sustained winds of 125 mph with gusts to 155 mph. This was a near miss however as the eye remained about 20 miles offshore and thus the tides were not excessive. Total damage was $11 million dollars. (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1959 - A tornado 440 yards in width traveled twenty miles from near Hollow, OK, to western Cherokee County KS. Although a strong tornado, it was very slow moving, and gave a tremendous warning roar, and as a result no one was killed. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - Afternoon highs of 103 degrees at Long Beach, CA, and 105 degrees at the Los Angeles Civic Center were the hottest since September records were established in 1963. Fierce Santa Ana winds accompanying the extreme heat resulted in destructive fires. (The Weather Channel)

1985 - A record early season snowstorm struck the Central High Plains Region. The storm left up to nineteen inches of snow along the Colorado Front Range, and as much as a foot of snow in the High Plains Region. (Storm Data)

1985 - Hurricane Gloria swept over the Outer Banks then rushed across Long Island, New England, and Canada. It was the first significant hurricane to hit New England in twenty-five years and brought heavy rains and high winds to the Mid-Atlantic states as well.

984
Tropical Storm Isidore made landfall near West Palm Beach during the morning hours. From there it moved slowly to near Orlando in the evening, then recurved to the northeast and crossed over Jacksonville and out to sea the next day. The highest wind gust was 73 mph near St. Augustine. Rainfall of 5 to 7 inches in north Florida caused local flooding.
Heavy snow fell across parts of the Plains and Colorado Foothills. Snowfall totals ranged from 2 to 5 inches across the Plains with up to a foot in the higher elevations in the Foothills. The main problem caused by the storm was thousands of power outages caused by snapped tree limbs falling on power lines. Some cars were damaged by falling trees and limbs. The snow also caused flight delays at Denver where just over 5 inches of snow fell. The high temperature the next day in Denver only managed to make it to 34°, a record low maximum for the date and equaled the all-time September record up to that time.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1985: Hurricane Gloria today makes landfall on western Long Island, New York with sustained winds of 85 mph. (gusts to 115 mph.), moving at 35 mph., Pressure 28.37 inches or 961 mb. and a storm surge of 4- 7 feet above Mean Tide. Hurricane Gloria was one of the most intensely reported events of the 1980's. Gloria hit New York and Connecticut as a moderate hurricane in September 1985. Although Gloria was not a major hurricane when it struck Connecticut, it was significantly more damaging to Connecticut than Hurricane Belle (1976) and Hurricane Donna (1960). Gloria at one time had a central pressure of 919 mb (27.13 in.), and sustained winds of 150 mph. - making Gloria almost a category five hurricane. At this time, Gloria was one of the largest and most intense cyclones to ever threaten the middle and north Atlantic states in several generations. Gloria brushed the North Carolina Outer Banks near midnight on September 27, with sustained winds of 105-mph and a central pressure of 27.83 inches (942 mb). The Diamond Shoals light-tower sixteen -miles off the North Carolina coast, recorded sustained winds of 98-mph with gusts to 120-mph. Gloria continued to accelerate northward off the eastern US coast brushing the coast of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey with hurricane-force gusts. Gloria finally crossed the coast of the United States mainland near western Long island, New York about 10-miles east of Kennedy International Airport. Passing over central Long Island, Gloria crossed the Connecticut coast near Bridgeport about 40-minutes later with sustained winds of 80-mph.

1987 - While those at the base of Mount Washington, NH, enjoyed sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s, the top of the mountain was blanketed with 4.7 inches of snow, along with wind gusts to 99 mph, and a temperature of 13 degrees. Severe thunderstorms developed along a cold front in the south central U.S. A thunderstorm west of Noodle TX produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced large hail in southeastern Wyoming during the afternoon, with tennis ball size hail reported at Cheyenne. Strong winds ushering the cold air into the north central U.S. gusted to 59 mph at Lander WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Freezing temperatures were reported in the Great Lakes Region and the Ohio Valley. Houghton Lake MI reported a record low of 21 degrees. Thunderstorms in the western U.S. produced wind gusts to 50 mph at Salt Lake City UT, and gusts to 58 mph at Cody WY.(The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2014: A squall line impacted central Arizona, including the Phoenix Metro area. 

1985: Hurricane Gloria today makes landfall on western Long Island, New York with sustained winds of 85 mph. (gusts to 115 mph.), moving at 35 mph., Pressure 28.37 inches or 961 mb. and a storm surge of 4- 7 feet above Mean Tide. Hurricane Gloria was one of the most intensely reported events of the 1980's. Gloria hit New York and Connecticut as a moderate hurricane in September 1985. Although Gloria was not a major hurricane when it struck Connecticut, it was significantly more damaging to Connecticut than Hurricane Belle (1976) and Hurricane Donna (1960). Gloria at one time had a central pressure of 919 mb (27.13 in.), and sustained winds of 150 mph. - making Gloria almost a category five hurricane. At this time, Gloria was one of the largest and most intense cyclones to ever threaten the middle and north Atlantic states in several generations. Gloria brushed the North Carolina Outer Banks near midnight on September 27, with sustained winds of 105-mph and a central pressure of 27.83 inches (942 mb). The Diamond Shoals light-tower sixteen -miles off the North Carolina coast, recorded sustained winds of 98-mph with gusts to 120-mph. Gloria continued to accelerate northward off the eastern US coast brushing the coast of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey with hurricane-force gusts. Gloria finally crossed the coast of the United States mainland near western Long island, New York about 10-miles east of Kennedy International Airport. Passing over central Long Island, Gloria crossed the Connecticut coast near Bridgeport about 40-minutes later with sustained winds of 80-mph.

 

Weird, I remember it as making landfall between Babylon and Bayshore in Suffolk County, it did a NE turn once it was level with Monmouth County and veered a bit to the east from here.  This is all academic and the exact landfall point does not matter since the eye was huge and covered the entire island when it crossed here. There was no backside either, just partly cloudy skies and gusty winds, all the rain was on the front side.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, tmagan said:

We are about 40 years to the hour that Hurricane Gloria made landfall on Long Island, the last landfall of a hurricane on Long Island.

Bob in 1991 came very close to making landfall at MTP and would have had more of an impact than Gloria did.

Based on news reports at the time, I distinctly remember Gloria made landfall in Western Suffolk County, not near JFK airport. It didn't matter though because the eye was extremely large and covered all of us and there was no backside except for some gusty winds and partly cloudy skies.

 

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