Tracking the tropics - 2025

[MJO812]

[CoastalWx]

Right over my head

[ineedsnow]

Not sure why but when I try to post images from storm vista they come up blank

[MJO812]

[tiger_deF]

Now that we have a consistent long-range hit, we need to watch for windshield wiping vs serious trends in either direction. If a few runs show it hitting farther down the coast or going OTS, as long as the models keep waffling and shift in the other direction then the hope is alive 

[ineedsnow]

thats a crush job.. 6 to 12 inches of rain river east

[Diggiebot]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

thats a crush job.. 6 to 12 inches of rain river east

Cape with big winds and monster surge. Nantucket sound and the outer beach’s would flood in from the south and west 

[Damage In Tolland]

I’d take that . 50-75 gusts and a foot of rain here 

[ineedsnow]

I think we will know in the next 48 hours or so if we got something to really track.. The ensembles that track OTS start off further north and the ones that threaten the east coast are further south in a couple days..

[ineedsnow]

out to hr 132 the 18z Euro is a good bit south of 12z

[CoastalWx]

Right over my head

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Right over my head

I'm really hoping this stays south the next couple of days

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I think we will know in the next 48 hours or so if we got something to really track.. The ensembles that track OTS start off further north and the ones that threaten the east coast are further south in a couple days..

Watch it via the vorticity tracker

[MJO812]

[Torch Tiger]

wild tracks!

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Please please 

[CoastalWx]

That run sucks. Keep it over water into HVN

[Diggiebot]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That run sucks. Keep it over water into HVN

I’ll take a messenger shuffle for a thousand  Alex 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That run sucks. Keep it over water into HVN

Would be ideal for CT. Similar to Isaias but stronger winds 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would be ideal for CT. Similar to Isaias but stronger winds 

Wind field is way east actually.  But still, meh. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wind field is way east actually.  But still, meh. 

At least there’s some fun way west solutions . If everything was east it’d already be untrackable . We need this 

[WxWatcher007]

Even though it’s looking back at 12z, the super ensemble is probably most useful tool right now. It also gives a good window into where predictability ends and weenie range begins. 

[Cyclone-68]

I’m THIS close to buying every milk carton within a 10 mile radius 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This is a Hatteras head fake and then 300 miles East of Chatham.  Ridge placement will lock in this week and then weenie dreams will fade. 

[Diggiebot]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This is a Hatteras head fake and then 300 miles East of Chatham.  Ridge placement will lock in this week and then weenie dreams will fade. 

Sounds like the last 75 years. It won’t happen till it happens wink wink 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

15 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Sounds like the last 75 years. It won’t happen till it happens wink wink 

I'm not a big tropical tracker but this set-up is a like a day 10 blizzard.  Certainly not a hallucination but currently modeled upper air patterns are tenuous. 

[ineedsnow]

0z Euro and GFS OTS.. GEFS OTS .. EPS says the east coast watches but many OTS.  still a long way to go with this one and it will change mant times. EURO AI in the Gulf and hits Texas

[CoastalWx]

It’s over as usual

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s over as usual

6z GFS came west and bit and the 6z GEFS are taking a big shift back west.. not over

[ineedsnow]

Most of the GEFS are west of the op