Tracking the tropics - 2025

[tiger_deF]

Given the likely higher than average (though still extremely unlikely) chance of a tropical impact this season, recent interesting model runs, and the tropical clutter in the August disco, I figure it’s time to bring back the tropics megathread!

[Cyclone-68]

It’s gotta change in our favor one of these years 

[tiger_deF]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

It’s gotta change in our favor one of these years 

We are extremely overdue, not counting tropical storm meh-nri. Every season we have model runs showing impacts which almost inevitably whiff. I remember Erika, Lee, Isaias, even Joaquin being shown as threats that never ended up materializing. But the historical precedent is there for big hits as unlikely as they are, and the east coast is definitely more at risk this year than the past few gulf-heavy seasons. 

[WxWatcher007]

Isaias was a big hit, at least here. Joaquin is an all timer  

[tiger_deF]

Juicy setup on the EC-AIFS

[WxWatcher007]

33 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Juicy setup on the EC-AIFS

Likely standard Euro too. Don’t need to know the nuances—it’s impossible at this range—just that something is there.

[ineedsnow]

0z Euro Please!!! 958mb over far eastern Ma /Cape  

[WxWatcher007]

Days and days of weenie runs at fantasy range

[ineedsnow]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Days and days of weenie runs at fantasy range

0z EPS gone wild.. sucks it's so far out

[ineedsnow]

[Torch Tiger]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Op way west of ens.  Its fishing

[ineedsnow]

30 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Op way west of ens.  Its fishing

Good call 12 days out.. 

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Good call 12 days out.. 

The tenor of eps is fish. No way around it

[CoastalWx]

I’d rather near ack vs this making landfall in NC and tracking over BGM as a fossil of it’s former self. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

The tenor of eps is fish. No way around it

Yea weenie land. Whats the lotto tickets ?

[ineedsnow]

12z Euro ots

[CoastalWx]

We’re onto winter 

[Torch Tiger]

[Cyclone-68]

I’d like a hurricane so severe it brings all the Dutch elm trees BACK

[Torch Tiger]

close but no cigar as they say

of course Canada gets obliterated

[metagraphica]

I'm okay with a tropical entity cruising up the coast and staying a little offshore if it can bring us really nice Pre. Like 3-4" of rain from a Pre would be great.