Hurricane Erin: 105 MPH - 958 mb - NNW @ 10

[WEATHER53]

It’s a new moon on 22nd and when tides are agitated, that usually enhances them .

[NorthHillsWx]

33 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The core was essentially completely destroyed. Will be a little surprising to see it rebuild, but that convection is really impressive so we'll see.

That is a gutted storm right there. Nothing really showed that happening 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That is a gutted storm right there. Nothing really showed that happening 

Particularly impressive given its size. 

[Wannabehippie]

2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 19
Location: 26.1°N 72.5°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 958 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[Wannabehippie]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png
 

[wthrmn654]

18z models looking north and west. Nhc track again to far east. 

[Wannabehippie]

14 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

18z models looking north and west. Nhc track again to far east. 

Right now Erin is moving NNW, so the GFS model might not be picking up on that.

No current flights in to Erin, but last flight, had a higher pressure that the last NHC report.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-2005A-ERIN.png

[eyewall]

Erin is definitely a lot healthier looking than earlier today. There may be an attempt at rebuilding the core now:
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2025_05L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_09.html

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Erin is definitely a lot healthier looking than earlier today. There may be an attempt at rebuilding the core now:
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2025_05L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_09.html

This apparent restrengthening is as predicted by the Euro, UKMET, Icon and possibly others.

[NorthHillsWx]

32 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Erin is definitely a lot healthier looking than earlier today. There may be an attempt at rebuilding the core now:
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2025_05L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_09.html

I think it’s earlier collapse was much more drastic than anyone expected but given improving shear and very high ocean temps over its path the next few days I believe it recovers back to a healthy 2. I am convinced it weakened to a 1 this morning so I’d consider reaching its operational intensity as restrengthening lol

[Wannabehippie]

5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 19
Location: 26.6°N 72.7°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 958 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

No change in intensity since the 2pm advisory.

[wthrmn654]

59 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This apparent restrengthening is as predicted by the Euro, UKMET, Icon and possibly others.

Those have it taking a more west track too.... not being a broken pattern but icon has been unbelievably consistent and euro ai too

[wthrmn654]

Should be noted,  there are models showing it strengthening a bit more now, i think more then before...

[wthrmn654]

Here's the entire nhc track from the very beginning,  it is clear as day they have been correcting west from the very beginning. 

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

Some incredibly warm water near Erin right now, about 80 miles away from this buoy!

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Some incredibly warm water near Erin right now, about 80 miles away from this buoy!

But look how much it cooled due to the energy transfer to Erin as potential energy in form of ocean warmth was converted to kinetic energy.

[wthrmn654]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

But look how much it cooled due to the energy transfer to Erin.

Yeah but I didn't realize it's 87 miles east of Erin. 

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Yeah but I didn't realize it's 87 miles east of Erin. 

This is a good illustration of a hurricane transferring warmth from the tropics to higher latitudes, the role of hurricanes. Otherwise, the tropical waters would be even hotter.

[wthrmn654]

[NJwx85]

Erin is looking good again. I suspect we’ll see an eye sometime this evening.

[wthrmn654]

Nearest buoy seeing nearly 40 foot waves to the east.... but the sensors have suddenly stopped sending temp or wind readings 67 knots was last recorded wind speed

[Wannabehippie]

8:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 19
Location: 27.3°N 72.7°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Still some strong winds aloft, but the need to rebuild convection and the expanding wind field has taken a toll on maximum surface winds

[wthrmn654]

Erin has become a little better organized during the past several 
hours. Conventional satellite imagery shows persistent strong 
convection near and to the north of the center, while microwave 
overpasses and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft indicate that the eyewall is trying to re-form.

After 72 h, the 
there is more spread, and the consensus models have shifted a 
little northward. In response, this portion of the track has been 
shifted to the north.

[wthrmn654]

moderate vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence.  Much of 
the intensity guidance suggests the hurricane should strengthen 
during this time, if the spread-out wind field can become more 
concentrated near the re-formed eyewall. On the basis of this 
happening, the new intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening 
during the first 36 h. However, an alternative scenario is that the 
central pressure falls considerably without a lot of increase in 
the winds as the hurricane grows larger.  After 36 h, increasing 
shear and the start of extratropical transition should cause 
weakening, and Erin is now forecast to become an extratropical low 
by 96 h.

[wthrmn654]

The eye is at 73W and just under 28N

That seems kinda west of the last 2 eye passes from plane no? 

[Wannabehippie]

11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 19
Location: 27.7°N 73.0°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

[Wannabehippie]