Hurricane Erin - 100 MPH - 971 MB - WNW @ 17

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Boston Bulldog said:

I don’t think the dual blob structure is going to preclude Erin’s RI. The southerly mass of thunderstorms should either dissipate or form into a curved band. Even if it doesn’t, we’ve seen powerful hurricanes with a second convective mass such as Matthew. Honestly Matthew was a fascinating storm, I’m sure there are great papers discussing its structure. Not sure what caused it

Very impressed with Erin’s gigantic ventilation right now, the anticyclonic outflow is sprawling across all quadrants 

Outflow is textbook. If it weren’t for some dry air intrusion we could see some insane RI. Even still heading towards 29/30c water temps should allow a shot at 135kt. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Down to 975 mb.

[Diggiebot]

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Down to 975 mb.

Consolation this will be a great hurricane to watch 

[Boston Bulldog]

Erin is about to put on a show.

 

[WxWatcher007]

As @Boston Bulldogsaid, Erin is taking off. 

After struggling with SAL and drier air, Erin looks to have mixed that out and organized substantially, with a closed eyewall for hours now per recon, much better vertical alignment, and a tightening RMW. In the image below, note how the first pass had a weaker sampling of winds in the southern half of the storm, but subsequent passes now show a more symmetrical distribution of strongest winds in the eyewall. 

As the NHC notes, the environment is conducive for explosive intensification. Wind shear is low for now, the outflow continues to become more impressive, and moisture looks like much less of an issue. 

 

The islands, even though there are likely to be some impacts, are incredibly fortunate that they are not in the direct path of what is going to become a buzzsaw in the next 24-36 hours. 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

As @Boston Bulldogsaid, Erin is taking off. 

After struggling with SAL and drier air, Erin looks to have mixed that out and organized substantially, with a closed eyewall for hours now per recon, much better vertical alignment, and a tightening RMW. In the image below, note how the first pass had a weaker sampling of winds in the southern half of the storm, but subsequent passes now show a more symmetrical distribution of strongest winds in the eyewall. 

As the NHC notes, the environment is conducive for explosive intensification. Wind shear is low for now, the outflow continues to become more impressive, and moisture looks like much less of an issue. 

 

The islands, even though there are likely to be some impacts, are incredibly fortunate that they are not in the direct path of what is going to become a buzzsaw in the next 24-36 hours. 

Is there any significance to the 2nd area of deep convection to the SW of the main area?

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Is there any significance to the 2nd area of deep convection to the SW of the main area?

I don't believe so. It looks like Erin's core isn't being hindered at all by it. 

Dropsonde in the NW eyewall measured 89kt at the surface and 99kt just off the deck at 925mb. 

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don't believe so. It looks like Erin's core isn't being hindered at all by it. 

Dropsonde in the NW eyewall measured 89kt at the surface and 99kt just off the deck at 925mb. 

9...25??? Is that right?

[Windspeed]

9...25??? Is that right?

He meant at the 925 mb flight level. Not at the surface.

At any rate, faster than steady intensification continues, but the lid is about to come off. Expect rapid deepening through Saturday and high-end Category 4 type intensity until outer banding consolidates. Given the regional environment and outflow pattern, Erin most likely will grow into a large size hurricane by Tuesday. So expect several replacement cycles with periods of reintensification in-between.