Typhoon Tip Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 hours ago, dendrite said: It's a nice airmass, but *shocker* it modified from a week or so ago. The Euro AI backed off a little every run. It's not just the trough domain ...notice the heights in the west also inching polarward. Basically it's a problem plaguing the models, one that's gotten more obvious in the last 10 years, not going the other way with supposed upgrades. They have to add heights everywhere when moving from ext --> mids --> short term. I come up with sci fi ideas. I can't help myself ... Like, they are trying to wholesale remove global warming from the ambience. Or it's a conspiracy to do so because MAGAt's have a mole in the modeling R&D offices at NCEP... heh 'Course, that myth gets immediately debunked when considering the zagnut scaled intellect of the MAGAtsphere: it could never produce an NCEP modeler, huh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago my o my, acatt ruined 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: my o my, acatt ruined Ha ... pretty skimpy and petty. But I honestly don't know if the GFS run is very confident. The EPS and GEFs means are trending larger heights below 40 N across the continent in the time frame above... Meanwhile, both operational ECMWF and GFS are flip flopping - this 12z run flopped back cooler. Yet ...still the GFS gets a day with big numbers, no less. Flip flopping means limited skill so ens means are more useful. I don't think it's a cooler august. That much seems pretty evident. Question is whether it's mundanely AN or if it may host another heat wave or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago 95+ skimpy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: 95+ skimpy lol no...it's the fact that it covers such a small geographical region. Most of that chart is early autumn. Barely servicing that warm side of the debate, would be a fairer impression of that chart. But again ... I don't trust that GFS solution anyway. Just sayn' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago I feel like this is going to be a special fall...warmth and humidity well through October. Will be able to watch football and hockey outside in shorts. With being to wear shorts with a hockey/football jersey it will look like you're not wearing pants. 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Hour 270......lolz 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I feel like this is going to be a special fall...warmth and humidity well through October. Will be able to watch football and hockey outside in shorts. With being to wear shorts with a hockey/football jersey it will look like you're not wearing pants. I don't ... I'm suspicious that it all collapses and we get shoulder season early blocking by early October, resulting in another early faux winter across mid latitudes, through ~ early Dec... (white Thanks Giggidy?) Then, the real winter arrives as another wind scarped S/W shear show that shits on everyone's winter forecasts with unrelenting windy and mild steady state boredom. Maybe a threat or two, sure... But outside of those, predominately AN months with a lot of jet speed shear with attenuating model outlooks in the nearer terms. It all relaxes in March when a late SSW is just in time to fuck up early next summer with BD indignity days... 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago It certainly appears that Augdewst is shaping up to be even more humid than Julorch was . And that’s pretty hard to do . But whoa! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't ... I'm suspicious that it all collapses and we get shoulder season early blocking and the faux winters mid latitudes through early Dec...then, the mid winter wind scarping takes over and it goes windy and mild. May a threat or two sure... but outside of those, predominated by AN months with a lot of jet speeds around. It all relaxes in March when the SSW is just in time to fuck up early next summer with BD indignity days... I could see that happening. I mean in all seriousness, we are going to start and see hemispheric changes occurring very soon (even this month) and we're really a strong disruption to the hemispheric flow away from truly (as Steve likes to say) breaking the back. This probably happens this month...that doesn't mean we aren't going to see any anomalously warm periods and high humidity, but we will get stronger cold fronts which will usher in those early fall like airmasses and the duration of the cooler airmasses behind these fronts will grow longer each time (until we erode summer for good). I am hoping to explore some seasonal thoughts in the next month/two but I begin grad school classes in 2.5 weeks so probably not going to have much time to divulge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I could see that happening. I mean in all seriousness, we are going to start and see hemispheric changes occurring very soon (even this month) and we're really a strong disruption to the hemispheric flow away from truly (as Steve likes to say) breaking the back. This probably happens this month...that doesn't mean we aren't going to see any anomalously warm periods and high humidity, but we will get stronger cold fronts which will usher in those early fall like airmasses and the duration of the cooler airmasses behind these fronts will grow longer each time (until we erode summer for good). I am hoping to explore some seasonal thoughts in the next month/two but I begin grad school classes in 2.5 weeks so probably not going to have much time to divulge. well .. i was also intending a good bit of that for snarky sarcasm But I do think like all snarky sarcasm ...there's an "air" of truism in there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Not much in the way of sun today, but giving the AC a rest is awesome. Monday looks like the peak of the week, highs in the mid-upper 80s but dews in the 50s. Full on COC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Can we get some flakes already. Getting boredSent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago A flock of businessmen in suits just came across the green. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago No businessmen that I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No businessmen that I know. They are very comfortable. As they will be tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No businessmen that I know. The course is empty lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 10 hours ago Author Share Posted 10 hours ago Yeah, crap wx and everyone shuts in 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Everywhere I went today there was nothing but... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago With such a cold start to the month we could be looking at a repeat of last year. Which was a top five coldest In 40 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Today is the best weather I've ever really known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago It was decent 10am-3pm, near 80 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago 18z gfs shows the heat ROARING back 8/10 through 8/14. Very similar to the 12z gefs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: 18z gfs shows the heat ROARING back 8/10 through 8/14. Very similar to the 12z gefs I see it starting Dewest 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I see it starting Dewest 8 18z gfs has 85-90 Monday and Tuesday. Coc! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago You know it's a real summer burner when Coc shots and "fronts" result in 80's to near 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: 18z gfs has 85-90 Monday and Tuesday. Coc! Golf courses flooded with bear men in wool suits. Playing 18 walking .. no carts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Golf courses flooded with bear men in wool suits. Playing 18 walking .. no carts I haven't played in many years but was going to try playing 9. Do folks not walk anymore? That's the whole point for me, besides shooting under 45. lol WEEI sports radio are harsh towards walkers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Will end up being a 1 day cool down… Looks like 80+ every day still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Will end up being a 1 day cool down… Looks like 80+ every day still ACATT tails between legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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