August Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

Latest WB EPS weekly temps for August.  Entire month forecasted drier than normal.

[Eskimo Joe]

Entirely possible the rest of the summer is at or below normal. We can save our heat waves for Christmas!

[frd]

On 7/28/2025 at 5:25 PM, Weather Will said:

Latest WB EPS weekly temps for August.  Entire month forecasted drier than normal.

I forget where but I thought I read that evidence is growing for yet another heatwave the week of August 11th to the 18th. Have you seen anything about that? 

[Weather Will]

2 hours ago, frd said:

I forget where but I thought I read that evidence is growing for yet another heatwave the week of August 11th to the 18th. Have you seen anything about that? 

WB latest weeklies for mid August to mid September forecast above normal temps/ drier than normal conditions for central zones mid August to mid September.

[WxUSAF]

Euro and GGEM has a very wet end of the week. Gfs says “what rain”?

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro and GGEM has a very wet end of the week. Gfs says “what rain”?

I hope the gfs is right. I'll be reenacting something outside on grass next Saturday...

[CAPE]

9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro and GGEM has a very wet end of the week. Gfs says “what rain”?

12z GFS looks a bit more interesting with low pressure off the SE coast that gets squeezed northwestward as a sprawling area of HP in eastern Canada shifts southeastward into the Gulf of Maine. Verbatim it's a glancing blow for southeastern parts of our region.

[Eskimo Joe]

I finally get a week off to go to the beach and the forecast jut tanks. Lovely.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z NBM.  Rain chances low through Wed.  Chances increase Th. Ann's Friday.

[Weather Will]

WB OZ GFS and EURO now both dry for the week ahead.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB OZ GFS and EURO now both dry for the week ahead.

Good. Keep lower Delmarva dry.

[stormy]

Euro Weeklies and GEFS Extended in general agreement for August precip.     Dry, D.C. east, wet west of D.C. especially up the spine of Apps.

Heat Dome likes the 4 corners ( better than Texas, east),   with a slight semblance of troughiness for the east.    

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS and EURO precip. through Day 7.  EURO can't make up its mind....

[stormy]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS and EURO precip. through Day 7.  EURO can't make up its mind....

The Euro has sucked up some GGEM juice!

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, stormy said:

The Euro has sucked up some GGEM juice!

WB 12Z Can. At Day 7...

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS and EURO precip. through Day 7.  EURO can't make up its mind....

Do you ever look at the ensemble guidance? It's inherently less volatile run to run in the LR, and gives us an indication of forecast uncertainty. A single deterministic model cannot do this.

[CAPE]

12z ens guidance- EPS and GEPS depict the more significant precip chances for central/western VA late week, with lesser amounts possible for locations further north/east. The GEFS keeps all notable precip southeast of our region.

[Weather Will]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Do you ever look at the ensemble guidance? It's inherently less volatile run to run in the LR, and gives us an indication of forecast uncertainty. A single deterministic model cannot do this.

I do look at ensembles, and maybe you are correct, but I am still annoyed at how good the ensembles looked for a big February snowstorm and everything went poof.  Guess that is the way it goes.  WB 18Z Euro is wet again west of the bay, and still raining at end of the run on Friday. WB 18Z EURO ensembles are also wetter through Friday afternoon compared to 12Z.

[Jrlg1181]

Looking at these 0Z models,  except the GFS... That would be problematic to say the least.. A repeat of last September simply wouldn't be good.. Except for Debby in August ( some creeks were dry again 3 weeks later ) - the major drought kept widespread problems along the main rivers to a minimum although some local spots had significant smaller creek flood damage....