Winter cancelled/uncancelled banter 25/26

[rclab]

21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

most people i meet at parties hate winter

Good morning forky. Time and the future are on your side. Stay warm, as always …..

 

[Krs4Lfe]

Outside of ratter winters, I've never seen such low prospects for snow for this area in the heart of January. Very reminiscent of 2020, 2023, 2012. That being said, we've had as much snow as entire winter 2024, all of winter 2023, all of winter 2020, and all of winter 2012. So it's very unlikely we end up in ratter territory unless we see no more snow for the rest of the season. But unless we have a massive turnaround at some point this month, winter has taken a vacation from the US. Just mild and warm as far as the eye can see

[Stormlover74]

2003, 2005, 2006, 2010, and 2021 would like a word. Most of those Jans were cold yes but saw relatively snowless first halfs

[Krs4Lfe]

BAM is honking about a warmer than expected "thaw" says it might persist longer than originally expected. Still expecting a flip to cold afterwards but even they admit this thaw has some teeth 

[NorthShoreWx]

Attention complaint department:

What's with the Koppen Climate classifications?  Calling NYC "subtropical" seems like poor nomenclature.

What is the utility of having NYC in the same climate classification (humid subtropical climate) as Orlando?  If that's true, why are there snowbirds?

[NorthShoreWx]

 

[David-LI]

Can we ban posts with model maps beyond hour 200?

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, David-LI said:

Can we ban posts with model maps beyond hour 200?

Those should be in banter honestly.  

[MJO812]

[TheClimateChanger]

On 1/7/2026 at 12:29 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

Attention complaint department:

What's with the Koppen Climate classifications?  Calling NYC "subtropical" seems like poor nomenclature.

What is the utility of having NYC in the same climate classification (humid subtropical climate) as Orlando?  If that's true, why are there snowbirds?

[TheClimateChanger]

The moving 10-year average is decidedly subtropical - not even close to freezing. Neither December, nor February have been below freezing in the last 10 years, and January only three times. Coldest month based on the past 10 years is January at 35.3F, and this is at the park. I would imagine more urban environs, and other favorable microclimates, are even warmer.

 

[NorthShoreWx]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Koppen may be useful  for some sort of macro-climate modeling, but not for much else.  I think the "subtropical" nomenclature is off.  As a speaker of English it does nothing for me.  I'll take the USDA hardiness zones, unless they've been updated to make some political point. 

[NorthShoreWx]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The moving 10-year average is decidedly subtropical - not even close to freezing. Neither December, nor February have been below freezing in the last 10 years, and January only three times. Coldest month based on the past 10 years is January at 35.3F, and this is at the park. I would imagine more urban environs, and other favorable microclimates, are even warmer.

 

No denying the recent winter warmth in the park, but I'm not sure where you will find a more urban environment.  Maybe on top of a subway vent.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Koppen may be useful  for some sort of macro-climate modeling, but not for much else.  I think the "subtropical" nomenclature is off.  As a speaker of English it does nothing for me.  I'll take the USDA hardiness zones, unless they've been updated to make some political point. 

I don't know... comparing to Orlando is comparing one extreme to the other. Recent means aren't substantially different than late 20th century norms at Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, and I think everyone would agree on that being classed as subtropical. Certainly much closer to that than a true continental climate of say Minneapolis.

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

No denying the recent winter warmth in the park, but I'm not sure where you will find a more urban environment.  Maybe on top of a subway vent.

Anywhere outside of the park where people actually live? Lol.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Anywhere outside of the park where people actually live? Lol.

Those places are not warmer (except for the subway grate scenario)

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't know... comparing to Orlando is comparing one extreme to the other. Recent means aren't substantially different than late 20th century norms at Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, and I think everyone would agree on that being classed as subtropical. Certainly much closer to that than a true continental climate of say Minneapolis.

By comparison, Orlando is pretty close to true tropical thresholds in recent years. Over the past 15 years, only January has dropped below the 18C/64.4F threshold. And only by a few degrees.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Those places are not warmer (except for the subway grate scenario)

Interesting. I don't know how a park could have a warmer microclimate than surrounding urban neighborhoods. Doesn't make much sense.

[NorthShoreWx]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't know... comparing to Orlando is comparing one extreme to the other. Recent means aren't substantially different than late 20th century norms at Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, and I think everyone would agree on that being classed as subtropical. Certainly much closer to that than a true continental climate of say Minneapolis.

I'm not sure everyone would agree.  By the way, the two charts you posted show NYC's warmest period and one of Raleigh's coldest.  It still says something about how NYC has warmed, but is a stretch for the subtropical argument.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. I don't know how a park could have a warmer microclimate than surrounding urban neighborhoods. Doesn't make much sense.

I agree.  But it's not colder.

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'm not sure everyone would agree.  By the way, the two charts you posted show NYC's warmest period and one of Raleigh's coldest.  It still says something about how NYC has warmed, but is a stretch for the subtropical argument.

That was intentional. I wanted to limit the analysis to higher quality data, excluding the older, warm-biased rooftop station at the downtown WB office in Raleigh.

[NorthShoreWx]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

By comparison, Orlando is pretty close to true tropical thresholds in recent years. Over the past 15 years, only January has dropped below the 18C/64.4F threshold. And only by a few degrees.

 

I kind of get the rationale for -3C being a threshold proxy for enduring winter snow cover, but what is behind the 64.4 for tropical?  (apologies that we are mixing °C and °F)

[Krs4Lfe]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Well now it certainly won’t happen. Fantasy 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Anyone else notice that Upton and Mt. Holly in addition to other NWS offices have a new AFD format - using "Key Messages" ??? Hope none of this is AI driven...the computerized voice on their weather radio stations is bad enough

AFD from KOKX

 

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah they announced it last month I think

That’s right. 

On 12/16/2025 at 10:12 AM, IrishRob17 said:

NOUS41 KOKX 161406
PNSOKX

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
0906 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY TRANSITIONING TO A NEW 
FORMAT FOR THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION BEGINNING JAN 7 2026...

Beginning with the afternoon issuance on January 7th 2026, the 
National Weather Service New York, NY Forecast Office will 
transition to a Key Message format for the Area Forecast Discussion 
(AFDOKX).  

This strategic change aligns the Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) with 
an impacts-first message philosophy, enabling our office to 
streamline communication and reduce redundancy. This transition 
moves away from a strictly chronological layout to focus immediately 
on potential weather impacts and hazards. By prioritizing Key 
Messages, we aim to enhance clarity and eliminate duplication within 
the Area Forecast Discussion. 

A side-by-side comparison of the old format and the new format 
templates can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/newAFD

The latest local AFD can be found at the following link: 
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=okx&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD

For any questions, please contact:

Nelson Vaz 
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service New York NY
[email protected]

 

[Blue Dream]

This forum is a buzz kill

[IrishRob17]

31 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Dude GfS clobbers the area again next weekend with a 5-8 inches area wide

Clobbered? 5-8” is a clobbering now?! How far have we fallen…

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, Blue Dream said:

This forum is a buzz kill

Why?  People are talking about the possibility of a storm even if it's not exactly likely at this point.  

[Krs4Lfe]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Clobbered? 5-8” is a clobbering now?! How far have we fallen…

I'm still not uncanceling my winter cancel post until we reach somewhat close to seasonal/average snow totals. I'll believe it when I see it 

[IrishRob17]

27 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I'm still not uncanceling my winter cancel post until we reach somewhat close to seasonal/average snow totals. I'll believe it when I see it 

We? I’m still running above average at this point. 

[Prue11]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Clobbered? 5-8” is a clobbering now?! How far have we fallen…

I remember the 2000s-2015ish a clobbering was nothing less than 12 and was usually 18+. I’m spoiled