Summer Banter/LibertyBell

[Sundog]

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i can't wait to lowpost in january when we barely get to freezing

These last three weeks must have been miserable for you

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

These last three weeks must have been miserable for you

yep even the day 15 fantasy heat maps weren't there

[forkyfork]

24 minutes ago, Sundog said:

These last three weeks must have been miserable for you

second year nina with a raging negative pdo. i hope you have a good supply of zoloft for this winter

[rclab]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

second year nina with a raging negative pdo. i hope you have a good supply of zoloft for this winter

The coastal plain will celebrate with December holiday Luau’s. As always ….

[IrishRob17]

7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i can't wait to lowpost in january when we barely get to freezing

Once you've seen one above freezing January low you've seen them all. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

hey guys about 90 days until we snow

[MJO812]

On 9/8/2025 at 2:33 PM, rclab said:

The coastal plain will celebrate with December holiday Luau’s. As always ….

 

I had snow last year on Christmas Eve

[MJO812]

https://pix11.com/news/local-news/potential-cold-and-snowy-winter-ahead-in-ny-forecast-models-signal/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAMxeuljbGNrAzF6zmV4dG4DYWVtAjExAAEeDTQavMwZnpEczs6X4BgX_lSBSjMQnmbvwDgJNzkJwCOMQ9a5_BK_Au-Uqyc_aem_ZGS55PROynVyAOLdzJcilw

[LibertyBell]

On 9/8/2025 at 11:40 AM, Sundog said:

These last three weeks must have been miserable for you

I liked that it didn't rain much (although it did rain last weekend.)

[Dark Star]

I'm having a civil discussion (or so I think) on a social media site.  I was under the impression that the oceans were absorbing CO2, which has led to increased warming of the oceans.  The other person said that according to Henry's Law, as the oceans warm, the they degas CO2.  Does anyone have an in depth explanation?  

My naive assumption was based on something I had heard years ago.  Earlier projections on the warming global temperatures were thought incorrect during a decreased period, I believe that occurred in the 1980s?  The explanation was that the oceans began absorbing CO2, which slowed the atmospheric warming during that period?  Perhaps I remembered incorrectly, which wouldn't be the first time.

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I'm having a civil discussion (or so I think) on a social media site.  I was under the impression that the oceans were absorbing CO2, which has led to increased warming of the oceans.  The other person said that according to Henry's Law, as the oceans warm, the they degas CO2.  Does anyone have an in depth explanation?  

My naive assumption was based on something I had heard years ago.  Earlier projections on the warming global temperatures were thought incorrect during a decreased period, I believe that occurred in the 1980s?  The explanation was that the oceans began absorbing CO2, which slowed the atmospheric warming during that period?  Perhaps I remembered incorrectly, which wouldn't be the first time.

The oceans will continue to absorb C02, just because they got a little warmer doesn't mean they have reached the degassing point. 

They just won't absorb CO2 (or any gas) as well as they did when they were colder. That creates a positive feedback loop for global warming unfortunately. 

But they will continue to absorb gases, just not at the same rate. 

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, Sundog said:

The oceans will continue to absorb C02, just because they got a little warmer doesn't mean they have reached the degassing point. 

They just won't absorb CO2 (or any gas) as well as they did when they were colder. That creates a positive feedback loop for global warming unfortunately. 

But they will continue to absorb gases, just not at the same rate. 

Now one of the debaters has introduced that the net global cloud cover has been decreasing.  This is the first time I have heard this.  I just assumed the opposite, since warmer air holds more moisture?

[Sundog]

3 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Now one of the debaters has introduced that the net global cloud cover has been decreasing.  This is the first time I have heard this.  I just assumed the opposite, since warmer air holds more moisture?

I read a study not too long ago that showed low clouds (I think it was low) were becoming less numerous because of warming. The warmer air/sea surface temps disrupt low cloud formation, leading to even more warming, leading to even more disruption, etc. 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

I read a study not too long ago that showed low clouds (I think it was low) were becoming less numerous because of warming. The warmer air/sea surface temps disrupt low cloud formation, leading to even more warming, leading to even more disruption, etc. 

Thanks again.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Thanks again.

Here are two relevant papers:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0310-1

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2025GL114882

[Dark Star]

On 9/13/2025 at 4:05 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Here are two relevant papers:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0310-1

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2025GL114882

Excellent.  Thanks

[LibertyBell]

On 9/13/2025 at 4:05 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Here are two relevant papers:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0310-1

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2025GL114882

But with higher evaporation rates would high and mid level clouds become more common, Don?

 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

But with higher evaporation rates would high and mid level clouds become more common, Don?

 

Even if that's true (I have no idea) I think it's low clouds that do the best job at cooling the surface. So if we are losing low clouds that's bad if you want to keep the Earth's temp from rising further. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Even if that's true (I have no idea) I think it's low clouds that do the best job at cooling the surface. So if we are losing low clouds that's bad if you want to keep the Earth's temp from rising further. 

Definitely, plus either way we're cooked.  With more clouds we have more insulation to retain heat at night with less clouds we have more sunlight to cook the earth during the day.

 

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Definitely, plus either way we're cooked.  With more clouds we have more insulation to retain heat at night with less clouds we have more sunlight to cook the earth during the day.

 

Clouds are one of the tricky variables that climate models haven't really nailed down yet. They can have cooling and warming effects. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

But with higher evaporation rates would high and mid level clouds become more common, Don?

 

With rising temperatures, cloud formation is occurring at higher altitudes. Thinner, high clouds are becoming relatively more common. Those clouds are idea for allowing in solar radiation and then slowing its escape. The thick stratocumulus clouds are become less frequent, yet it is those clouds that block out a lot of incoming solar radiation. This data is consistent with paleoclimate records and more recent climate modeling.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With rising temperatures, cloud formation is occurring at higher altitudes. Thinner, high clouds are becoming relatively more common. Those clouds are idea for allowing in solar radiation and then slowing its escape. The thick stratocumulus clouds are become less frequent, yet it is those clouds that block out a lot of incoming solar radiation. This data is consistent with paleoclimate records and more recent climate modeling.

Does this have anything to do with the increase in turbulence? 

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Does this have anything to do with the increase in turbulence? 

No. There's a different dynamic involved. Because the Arctic warms faster near the surface but the tropics warm more in the upper atmosphere, wind shear is increasing at cruising altitudes, leading to more clear-air turbulence

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

No. There's a different dynamic involved. Because the Arctic warms faster near the surface but the tropics warm more in the upper atmosphere, wind shear is increasing at cruising altitudes, leading to more clear-air turbulence

Ok thank you

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Hmm, I think global warming coincides with less low level clouds and clouds in general. This is why it was always surprising to see global precipitation increase, and precipitable water. It makes sense that warm/dry would be the trajectory, but for the last few decades more moisture has happened by a lot. 

[forkyfork]

maybe the pac jet will relax this winter