July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[anthonymm]

Hottest period of summer yet to come (mid august). Triple digit heat, dews in the 70s likely.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

1993 and 2010 way ahead of everyone else, just as I remember them :-)

 

I disagree for NJ. This is a top 5 hottest already when you factor in the dews. Its been relentless.

[anthonymm]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I disagree for NJ. This is a top 5 hottest already when you factor in the dews. Its been relentless.

The death of nights in the 50s and 60s is really tragic. It can still happen (as we’re about to see), but it used to routinely drop below 70 at night.

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

well the clay I saw used in the SW was different, it was basically adobe clay

The Pueblo peoples of the American Southwest built homes out of adobe, sun-dried earth made from sand, clay, water, and organic matter.

-from Brainly

"Organic Natter" is a synonym for ____________________________

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I disagree for NJ. This is a top 5 hottest already when you factor in the dews. Its been relentless.

New record 74.2° average July average max dew point at SMQ giving a record 96° heat index.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

1993 and 2010 way ahead of everyone else, just as I remember them :-)

 

 

22, 21 and '88 all close too (west of the city).

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Do we have any idea about the dew points and humidity back then? I was 10 years old living in DC area in 1988 and remember a hot summer but nothing like the uncomfortable humidities today.

 

I dont have the DT but perhaps Bluewv or DonSuth might have access to the enhanced data set from the 1988 and other seasons.  1983 i remember as very humid .  1988 more like 2010 - drier wets winds.

[psv88]

91

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

NAM going wild over PHL to Western NJ with big rains 4-6 inches

rain should be coming in between 4-6 today too

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

I dont have the DT but perhaps Bluewv or DonSuth might have access to the enhanced data set from the 1988 and other seasons.  1983 i remember as very humid .  1988 more like 2010 - drier wets winds.

1983 was hotter though (including here)-- JFK hit 100 in July and August and NYC hit 99 in September.

[JerseyWx]

47 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

The death of nights in the 50s and 60s is really tragic. It can still happen (as we’re about to see), but it used to routinely drop below 70 at night.

And it still does.  You have to of course get outside of the urban jungles for it to happen though.

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I disagree for NJ. This is a top 5 hottest already when you factor in the dews. Its been relentless.

but we dont factor in dewpoints when we define heat, it's by temperature alone.

We can see if it's top 5 by the end of the season, it's too hard to make that judgment right now.  For example 2011 was top 5 by the end of July too, but then we had deluge after deluge in August, so it ended up not in the top 5 (although it still has one of the top 5 hot stretches-- as does this one-- in June of all months.)

Here are my top 5 (including ones I didn't experience, just going by raw numbers)

1. 2010

2. 1993

3. 1983

4. 1999

5. 1966

The things I care about when categorizing heat are 1) number of 90 degree days 2) length of heatwaves 3) peak of heat temperatures (100 degree heatwaves get extra points.)

For summers I've personally experienced I'd replace 1966 with 2002.

I could have added either 1953 or 1955 or both but neither had 100 degree temperatures at JFK so I will not (although 1953 had 4 100+ days at NYC and the longest heatwave of all time and 1955 had the most 95+ days at NYC.)

[forkyfork]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

but we dont factor in dewpoints when we define heat, it's by temperature alone.

We can see if it's top 5 by the end of the season, it's too hard to make that judgment right now.  For example 2011 was top 5 by the end of July too, but then we had deluge after deluge in August, so it ended up not in the top 5 (although it still has one of the top 5 hot stretches-- as does this one-- in June of all months.)

Here are my top 5 (including ones I didn't experience, just going by raw numbers)

1. 2010

2. 1993

3. 1983

4. 1999

5. 1966

The things I care about when categorizing heat are 1) number of 90 degree days 2) length of heatwaves 3) peak of heat temperatures (100 degree heatwaves get extra points.)

For summers I've personally experienced I'd replace 1966 with 2002.

 

heat and temperature are two different things

[anthonymm]

3 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

And it still does.  You have to of course get outside of the urban jungles for it to happen though.

I was speaking for even nyc. 1980-2010 climo had avg lows in the upper 60s even in the dog days. that literally almost never happens now

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

heat and temperature are two different things

Yes it's average vs total, I care about what I can measure directly (which is temperature).  Hot summers are defined by temperature (NWS criteria is number of 90 degree days.)

 

[forkyfork]

a moist parcel of air contains more heat than a dry parcel of air at the same temperature. that is one of the backbones of weather as we know it

[forkyfork]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yes it's average vs total, I care about what I can measure directly (which is temperature).  Hot summers are defined by temperature.

 

we do measure it. dewpoint, theta e, etc

[LibertyBell]

Just now, forkyfork said:

a moist parcel of air contains more heat than a dry parcel of air at the same temperature. that is one of the backbones of weather as we know it

Yes, it's true.  But temperature is what we can measure directly.  You need to work with some math formulas to combine moistness with temperature to measure heat.

the official NWS definition of *hot summer* ranks them by number of 90 degree highs and does not factor in moisture.

 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

And it still does, routinely.  You have to of course get outside of the urban jungles for it to happen though.

For the urban areas it has been the lack of 50s during July which used to be more common. For the rural spots outside the UHI areas it has been a lack of July lows in the 40s which used to occur more regularly. Since the low temperatures have been steadily warming in both parts of the region.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we do measure it. dewpoint, theta e, etc

I mean, you have to use math formulas.  Yes you can measure dew point directly but to actually measure the total heat content you have to combine that with temperature using formulas.

For example:

a temperature of 102 degrees with a dew point of 66 contains more heat than a temperature of 99 degrees with the same 66 dew point.

BUT

what about a temperature of 99 degrees with a dew point of 68?

OR a temperature of 102 with a 64 dew point?

Do you see what I mean-- there isn't any direct measure of heat, you must solve these using math formulas.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but we dont factor in dewpoints when we define heat, it's by temperature alone.

We can see if it's top 5 by the end of the season, it's too hard to make that judgment right now.  For example 2011 was top 5 by the end of July too, but then we had deluge after deluge in August, so it ended up not in the top 5 (although it still has one of the top 5 hot stretches-- as does this one-- in June of all months.)

Here are my top 5 (including ones I didn't experience, just going by raw numbers)

1. 2010

2. 1993

3. 1983

4. 1999

5. 1966

The things I care about when categorizing heat are 1) number of 90 degree days 2) length of heatwaves 3) peak of heat temperatures (100 degree heatwaves get extra points.)

For summers I've personally experienced I'd replace 1966 with 2002.

I could have added either 1953 or 1955 or both but neither had 100 degree temperatures at JFK so I will not (although 1953 had 4 100+ days at NYC and the longest heatwave of all time and 1955 had the most 95+ days at NYC.)

For NYC itself I'd say the top 5 summers for heat (ignoring sensor issues) were:

1. 2010

2. 1993

3. 1983

4. 1966

5. 1953

I really wanted to include 1991 and 1955 and 1949 and 1999, these should go in the next 5.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

For NYC itself I'd say the top 5 summers for heat (ignoring sensor issues) were:

1. 2010

2. 1993

3. 1983

4. 1966

5. 1953

I really wanted to include 1991 and 1955 and 1949 and 1999, these should go in the next 5.

 

 

 

NYC 95 degree or higher saeson leaders

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 95 °F
1955	1	16
1988	2	14
2002	3	13
1993	3	13
1999	5	12
1953	5	12
1949	7	11
1944	7	11
1983	9	10
1980	9	10
1966	9	10
2005	12	9
1952	12	9
2010	14	8
1991	14	8

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

For NYC itself I'd say the top 5 summers for heat (ignoring sensor issues) were:

1. 2010

2. 1993

3. 1983

4. 1966

5. 1953

I really wanted to include 1991 and 1955 and 1949 and 1999, these should go in the next 5.

 

 

 

 

Depends on the metric  overall summer temps (avg) , number of 90 degree days, number of 95 degree days, number of 100 degree days or higher.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

For NYC itself I'd say the top 5 summers for heat (ignoring sensor issues) were:

1. 2010

2. 1993

3. 1983

4. 1966

5. 1953

I really wanted to include 1991 and 1955 and 1949 and 1999, these should go in the next 5.

 

 

 

there's too many summers to pick from for me to do a top 5, so I'll just list my top 5 ideal summers.

1. 2010

2. 1993

3. 1999

4. 1983

5. 1966

 

[SACRUS]

 

Wide view starting to see semblance of some popup storms in EPA

 

 

and the clouds

 

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Depends on the metric  overall summer temps (avg) , number of 90 degree days, number of 95 degree days, number of 100 degree days or higher.

Yes it's really hard to do a top 5 you have to weigh them by some system (so you end up having to do math anyway haha).

Basically I'm looking for years that have at least 30 90+ degree days (there's not that many of them), at least 5 95+ degree days and at least 1 100+  degree day.

For JFK only 2010 makes that list.

For NYC it's more than that but I'm not sure it's 5.

I know for sure 2010, 1993, 1991 make this list for NYC (and maybe 1999 too?) but I don't know which others do.

1983 did not get to 100 in NYC (but 99 in September and 100 twice at JFK)

I'd still put 1983 near the top for NYC because it held the 90 degree day record until 1991 and 1993.

1953 had four 100+ degree days at NYC but I don't think it had 30 90+ degree days (although it had two of our longest heatwaves ever.

1966 also had four 100+ degree days at NYC (and three in a row at JFK) but I'm not sure it had the 30 90+ degree days I'm looking for.

1955 holds the record for NYC with 16 95+ days but I'm not sure it hit 100 in 1955 at NYC.

It's possible 1949 also belongs on this list with 5 99+ degree days at NYC (2 of which were 100+) and 8 100+ degree days at EWR but I don't know the number of 90+ degree days in that year.

[wdrag]

Heavy showers organizing E PA. SPC HREF seems to have spot 7" MAX potential by Thu evening.  Waiting completion of the HREF and then probably starting a thread for iso FF, detours, travel delays...sometime between 4-8P.  

[LoboLeader1]

95F/65

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

NYC 95 degree or higher saeson leaders

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 95 °F
1955	1	16
1988	2	14
2002	3	13
1993	3	13
1999	5	12
1953	5	12
1949	7	11
1944	7	11
1983	9	10
1980	9	10
1966	9	10
2005	12	9
1952	12	9
2010	14	8
1991	14	8

thanks Tony, out of those I think 1993, 1999, 1983, 2010 and 1991 all had at or above 30 90+ degree days, were there any others?

 

[Sundog]

34 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

And it still does.  You have to of course get outside of the urban jungles for it to happen though.

The urban jungle used to average lows in the upper 60s in July. Up until the 1981-2010 averages it did. 

Even in rural areas, if your dewpoints are high you're not cooling off either. 

Everyone's warming up at night. The farmland went from 65 to 68 and the city went from 68 to 71, or something like that. So yea rural still averages in the 60s but not as low into the 60s.