Superstorm Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 53 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: From CTP: Southern/Southeastern PA/Lower Susquehanna Valley Farther south, this area is more removed from the jet-streak dynamics to the north. However, this region is closer to the deepening surface low with strong surface-925mb southerly theta-e advection directed into the southeastward advancing surface front. A tropical air-mass (depicted by 2-2.25" PWATs and low-mid 70s dew points) will coincide within a warm sector that becomes increasingly unstable (MUCAPE between 1,000-2,000 J/kg). It is worth noting that SST anomalies along the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast coasts are well above normal too, acting as an abnormally rich moisture source for southerly low-level flow to draw from. By this afternoon, low-level WAA into the front will support storms enveloping the region with additional storms from the Laurel Highlands/south central Alleghenies tracking east. Modest vertical wind shear aloft will also support organized clusters of storms, some of which will have the potential to backbuild and train between the I-81 and I-95 corridors into tonight. Latest 12Z HREF guidance shows 24-hr probabilities for >3" of rainfall are high (>70%) across southeast PA. Just as concerning is this same region sports 30-60% chances for >5" of rainfall with 24hr PMM/LPMM values close to the ensemble maxima approaching 8 inches. That is nuts. Whoever gets in the deluge will be suffering some serious flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 15 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I said it the other week when we were chattin up big totals for 2025, that we'd probably jinx it and rest of year struggle to reach climo. While i dont think that'll happen.....just like AI....mo nature listens to everything we say. Every single time I've been missed the past couple of weeks I immediately think of that post that you made. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Good point. Thoughts last week of temps approaching the century mark down here have ended up in the 93-95 range in reality. It helped it feel so much more refreshing to be outside. Haha I know wasn't it just lovely out!? Seriously though, my P&C even as recently as Tuesday morning had me at 97 for both Tuesday and Wednesday, whereas MDT and LNS topped out at 93/94 and 94/95 for those days, respectively. Heck, even CXY went only 94/93; THV only 91/92. As @Jns2183 mentioned, high Dews are the enemy of high temps, but the forecasts should certainly be factoring in all of that. Not a huge bust or anything, just thought it was notable. Heat indices were unbearable either way ha. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Haha I know wasn't it just lovely out!? Seriously though, my P&C even as recently as Tuesday morning had me at 97 for both Tuesday and Wednesday, whereas MDT and LNS topped out at 93/94 and 94/95 for those days, respectively. Heck, even CXY went only 94/93; THV only 91/92. As [mention=4667]Jns2183[/mention] mentioned, high Dews are the enemy of high temps, but the forecasts should certainly be factoring in all of that. Not a huge bust or anything, just thought it was notable. Heat indices were unbearable either way ha. I'll happily take higher temperatures with lower dewpoints. Yesterday was horrendous and today my heat index was 96 with a 84 air temperature. Literally makes me nauseous Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 could get a sneaky 90F today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: could get a sneaky 90F today I'm at 89 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Haha, wunderground now has all of Cumberland county and Harrisburg city proper getting less than 0.10" of rain todaySent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Another note - a lot has been said about flooding/rainfall totals (rightly so) but Elliott is really hyping severe weather this afternoon. He said that CAPE is as high as it ever gets in these parts and he fears that storms will pack winds of 60-70 mph. That concerns me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Storms are already rapidly developing east of the river currently. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Storms are already rapidly developing east of the river currently. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad Was just about to post that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Storms are already rapidly developing east of the river currently. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad Already a nasty cell right over that same Columbia to Mount Joy corridor that got hit so hard a couple weeks ago. Solid rain falling at my house. And so it begins.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 76 degrees breezy and cloudy….what a difference a day makes. My one weather station is in the sun. Yesterday afternoon it read 103 the highest I ever seen it. My other temperature gauge is in the shade, read 99. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 My in laws are getting crushed in Landisville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 I'm full sun. It's 90, dewpoint 76 HI of 106Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 75/72 here with ~.6" from round one and lots of thunder. Next batch looks to stay primarily to the southeast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: 75/72 here with ~.6" from round one. Next batch looks to stay primarily to the southeast. No rain at home nor here at work, but the latter might be changing soon. Nothing imminent at home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Every single time I've been missed the past couple of weeks I immediately think of that post that you made. Wouldnt worry too much. IF NWS is close to right, lawn waterin to commence later today (although radar is stuckish in NW PA. Also, since that post, I've gotten POUNDED 2x since then, with friggin deluges that were largely not called for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 It’s awful out. I thought we’d have lower humidity already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 I don't know, man. It feels extremely explosive to me. Maybe it's my steak, egg and cheese bagel I had for breakfast. I don't know ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Another note - a lot has been said about flooding/rainfall totals (rightly so) but Elliott is really hyping severe weather this afternoon. He said that CAPE is as high as it ever gets in these parts and he fears that storms will pack winds of 60-70 mph. That concerns me. x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 4 minutes ago, canderson said: It’s awful out. I thought we’d have lower humidity already. Nah, thats been modeled for later tonight post front. hang in there, its coming. Cant wait. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 You guys in southeastern pa are already working with 400O J/kg of cape and most of us aren't far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 I saw at least one embedded super cell about an hour ago, and I'm at work can't really look at this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 I saw at least one embedded super cell about an hour ago, and I'm at work can't really look at this stuff.If something is going to blow up I'd beg for it to start developing in the Carlisle to Mechanicsburg area. Being upper 80s with sun and dewpoints that high I feel like there almost has to be a cap in place there that it has not blown up alreadySent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Supercell compositeRight now it is the most ridiculous humid conditions with heat I've ever felt hereSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 And so it begins....Flood Warnings have been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 The NWS just posted instructions on how to bake a lasagna in your mailbox 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 7 minutes ago, Superstorm said: And so it begins....Flood Warnings have been issued. Yeah I'm right in the thick of it and the dreaded back-building keeps happening every time I think the back edge is near. Over an inch and a half now. Developing.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 Got a half inch in Tamaqua, but everything seems to have now consolidated southeast from Allentown on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah I'm right in the thick of it and the dreaded back-building keeps happening every time I think the back edge is near. Over an inch and a half now. Developing.... Nary a drop in Maytown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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