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Central PA Summer 2025


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53 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

From CTP:

Southern/Southeastern PA/Lower Susquehanna Valley
Farther south, this area is more removed from the jet-streak
dynamics to the north. However, this region is closer to the
deepening surface low with strong surface-925mb southerly
theta-e advection directed into the southeastward advancing
surface front. A tropical air-mass (depicted by 2-2.25" PWATs
and low-mid 70s dew points) will coincide within a warm sector
that becomes increasingly unstable (MUCAPE between 1,000-2,000
J/kg). It is worth noting that SST anomalies along the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast coasts are well above normal too, acting
as an abnormally rich moisture source for southerly low-level
flow to draw from. By this afternoon, low-level WAA into the
front will support storms enveloping the region with additional
storms from the Laurel Highlands/south central Alleghenies
tracking east. Modest vertical wind shear aloft will also
support organized clusters of storms, some of which will have
the potential to backbuild and train between the I-81 and I-95
corridors into tonight. Latest 12Z HREF guidance shows 24-hr
probabilities for >3" of rainfall are high (>70%) across southeast
PA. Just as concerning is this same region sports 30-60%
chances for >5" of rainfall with 24hr PMM/LPMM values close to
the ensemble maxima approaching 8 inches.

That is nuts.  Whoever gets in the deluge will be suffering some serious flooding.

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15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I said it the other week when we were chattin up big totals for 2025, that we'd probably jinx it and rest of year struggle to reach climo.  While i dont think that'll happen.....just like AI....mo nature listens to everything we say.:P

Every single time I've been missed the past couple of weeks I immediately think of that post that you made. :)  

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Good point. Thoughts last week of temps approaching the century mark down here have ended up in the 93-95 range in reality. It helped it feel so much more refreshing to be outside. 

Haha I know wasn't it just lovely out!? :lol:

Seriously though, my P&C even as recently as Tuesday morning had me at 97 for both Tuesday and Wednesday, whereas MDT and LNS topped out at 93/94 and 94/95 for those days, respectively.  Heck, even CXY went only 94/93; THV only 91/92.  As @Jns2183 mentioned, high Dews are the enemy of high temps, but the forecasts should certainly be factoring in all of that.  Not a huge bust or anything, just thought it was notable.  Heat indices were unbearable either way ha. 

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Haha I know wasn't it just lovely out!? 
Seriously though, my P&C even as recently as Tuesday morning had me at 97 for both Tuesday and Wednesday, whereas MDT and LNS topped out at 93/94 and 94/95 for those days, respectively.  Heck, even CXY went only 94/93; THV only 91/92.  As [mention=4667]Jns2183[/mention] mentioned, high Dews are the enemy of high temps, but the forecasts should certainly be factoring in all of that.  Not a huge bust or anything, just thought it was notable.  Heat indices were unbearable either way ha. 
I'll happily take higher temperatures with lower dewpoints. Yesterday was horrendous and today my heat index was 96 with a 84 air temperature. Literally makes me nauseous

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

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Another note - a lot has been said about flooding/rainfall totals (rightly so) but Elliott is really hyping severe weather this afternoon. He said that CAPE is as high as it ever gets in these parts and he fears that storms will pack winds of 60-70 mph. 

That concerns me. 

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16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Storms are already rapidly developing east of the river currently. 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

Already a nasty cell right over that same Columbia to Mount Joy corridor that got hit so hard a couple weeks ago.  Solid rain falling at my house.  And so it begins....

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76 degrees breezy and cloudy….what a difference a day makes.

My one weather station is in the sun. Yesterday afternoon it read 103 the highest I ever seen it.

My other temperature gauge is in the shade, read 99.

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Every single time I've been missed the past couple of weeks I immediately think of that post that you made. :)  

Wouldnt worry too much.  IF NWS is close to right, lawn waterin to commence later today (although radar is stuckish in NW PA. 

Also, since that post, I've gotten POUNDED 2x since then, with friggin deluges that were largely not called for.    

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Another note - a lot has been said about flooding/rainfall totals (rightly so) but Elliott is really hyping severe weather this afternoon. He said that CAPE is as high as it ever gets in these parts and he fears that storms will pack winds of 60-70 mph. 

That concerns me. 

x2

 

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4 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s awful out.  I thought we’d have lower humidity already.  

Nah, thats been modeled for later tonight post front.  hang in there, its coming.  Cant wait.

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I saw at least one embedded super cell about an hour ago, and I'm at work  can't really look at this stuff.
If something is going to blow up I'd beg for it to start developing in the Carlisle to Mechanicsburg area. Being upper 80s with sun and dewpoints that high I feel like there almost has to be a cap in place there that it has not blown up already

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