Central PA Summer 2025

[Yardstickgozinya]

I'm probably a little late to the ball game today spc has placed SE pa under a slight risk. 

 ...Mid Atlantic...

   Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies and strong heating occurring over northern/central VA, where a hot/humid airmass is present. Thunderstorms are expected to develop off the terrain this afternoon and spread eastward into the DelMarVa region. Sufficient flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of strong storms capable wind damage. Isolated strong storms may also affect south-central VA and northern NC later this afternoon as well. Refer to MCD #1344 for further details.

[Yardstickgozinya]

8 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

It appears there might be some flys in the ointment. Waiting to see is spc jumps ship. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Completely off topic but if your interested in Artificial intelligence and  comedy, this is ai comedy gold. Don't miss the fight. 

https://youtu.be/9HJZYjkNs_s?si=tu5IAGTfGPQ5ZFuB

 

 

[Superstorm]

Picked up 1.16” from thunderstorm that rolled through.


.

[Voyager]

Down in Lansdale at the moment delivering, and it looks quite threatening to the west.

[Itstrainingtime]

59 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Picked up 1.16” from thunderstorm that rolled through.


.

Your area "seems" to be a summertime magnet for storms...at least I remember last year when you received 5" or 6" from a storm?

[canderson]

.25” for me today. A lot more just to the SE. 

[Voyager]

Tamaqua Split was in full force today. Storms rolled and rolling along I-80 and south of I-78.

Tamaqua...not a drop.

[Yardstickgozinya]

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 hours ago, Superstorm said:

Picked up 1.16” from thunderstorm that rolled through.


.

Everything skirted me all day here. It was wet everywhere when I got off the train in Mount Joy but not far into the drive home the roads quickly became bone dry. Just a couple hundredths at the house. 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Everything skirted me all day here. It was wet everywhere when I got off the train in Mount Joy but not far into the drive home the roads quickly became bone dry. Just a couple hundredths at the house. 

.3" here on the nose.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

.3" here on the nose.

Not shabby. Move the decimal one place to the left at that’s about where I’m at. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

.3" here on the nose.

I had a buddy send me some pics of decent flooding in Manheim. Looks like some spots up there got damn near two inches in a half hour, including a half inch in five minutes at one point. Intense. 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I had a buddy send me some pics of decent flooding in Manheim. Looks like some spots up there got damn near two inches in a half hour, including a half inch in five minutes at one point. Intense. 

Manheim/Lititz and eastern Lanco got wamboozled this afternoon.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Beautiful view of distant cumulus nimbus and lightning off to the NW at the moment.

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Manheim/Lititz and eastern Lanco got wamboozled this afternoon.

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I had a buddy send me some pics of decent flooding in Manheim. Looks like some spots up there got damn near two inches in a half hour, including a half inch in five minutes at one point. Intense. 

Radar estimations give a few spots well over 3" approaching or at 4" NE of  Reading.

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Radar estimations give a few spots well over 3" approaching or at 4" NE of  Reading.

I'm not disputing, anything you're saying. I have no doubts that all  happened. Just adding my two cents.

[Jns2183]

It is very weird being in a region without radar. Thank God for GOES. Anyways, Erick is 400 miles away still, CAT 3. Will make landfall early AM east of Acapulco. Here a monsoon trough is putting a squeeze play here with lightning and rain past 4 hours. The forecast is 3-6".

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

[Yardstickgozinya]

8 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

It appears there might be some flys in the ointment. Waiting to see is spc jumps ship. 

I noticed some discrepancies throughout the day with the forecast. The big question seems to be will the storms Initiate along a pre frontal boundary or along the lagging cold front.  Watching initiation tomorrow is key. If the storms can get going out head of the cold front instead of the pre-frontal trough we  could be looking at something big tomorrow. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

The thinking from the SPC is that the storms will likely fire pre frontal.  NWS  at the very least, is advertising the potential of the front timing up very well with max daytime heating for cpa. Maybe they aren't buying into the pre-frontal convection at all . You also don't usually hear them say  things like  "the slight risk remains in place for good reasons," which also shows me that  the discrepancies weren't just in my head. Lol

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

The approach of a long wave trough aloft will put us in the favorable right entrance region of a jet streak moving poleward on Thursday. The cold front associated with this trough will be arriving in Central PA in peak heating/mid-day and shear also increases to 40+KT over most of the area. Expect SHRA and perhaps a TSRA or two to be ongoing in the AM over wrn PA and fire up over the CTP CWA in the late morning and aftn. As the day continues, the CAPEs in the SE get back into the 1500-2000J range in the E. The SPC SLGT risk of severe remains in place for good reasons. Flooding should be much less of a concern Thurs vs Wed with storm motions much quicker despite PWAT values of 1.5-2" (highest E). Still a MRGL risk of excessive rain, though, as repeated cells could make for localized problems. Not enough of a risk nor confidence to post a FF Watch at this point.

[mahantango#1]

571
FXUS61 KCTP 190813
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
413 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --

* Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening particularly across the southeast half of central PA * Not as humid for the first day of summer on Friday with a couple of passing rain showers/isolated gusty thunderstorm * Trending warmer to start the weekend with a major to extreme heat risk Sunday through next Wednesday

-- End Changed Discussion --

&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

Muggy start today with sunrise temps in the 65-70F range and fog in the central and eastern ridge/valley region. High PW axis aligned with strong isentropic lift/WAA pattern on nose of 40-50kt 850mb jet will likely keep a few showers going across the western Alleghenies early this morning. Focus will shift to severe t-storm risk for later this afternoon/evening. Seasonally strong upper trough located over IL at 06Z will advance into the Upper OH Valley by 18z as stronger 500mb flow develops across western PA/NY. Convection should readily develop along and just ahead of an eastward advancing cold front or prefrontal trough within a very moist/unstable environment particularly near max PWAT/CAPE bullseye over the southeastern half to 1/3 of central PA. SPC has maintained a level 2 out of 5 risk over most of this area, but did increase the severe threat to level 3 of 5 (ENH) along the I95 corridor which does clip York and Lancaster Counties. Severe wind gusts remain the primary concern with deep shear profiles favoring organized line segments and clusters. HREF data indicates storms exit the Lower Susq Valley after 00Z with any lingering shower activity fading by late tonight/06Z Fri. Flash flood risk should be reduced to some extent today with more progressive storm motions perpendicular to the front. However, with high PWs 1-2 inches, extremely sensitive/primed soils, and significantly reduced 1hr FFG as low as 0.5" (thanks to 7-day rainfall 200-400 percent of normal) an isolated flash flood is possible particularly in the most vulnerable/wettest locations across the Laurel Highlands and south central Alleghenies. Post frontal WNW flow will direct drier air (lower Td/PW) into CPA overnight with low temps falling back into a more comfortable mid 50s to low 60s range or 5-10 degrees cooler than last night. This flow may also bank low clouds along the Allegheny Front beneath subsidence inversion associated with sfc ridge axis extending northward from 1020mb high pressure over the Central Appalachians.

[mahantango#1]

NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center 

rsooendptS93ll8l6h0ia7ih8m02l1ft471839mg0lah48h73ghu4fhflf88  · 

 

 

6/19 2:40 AM EDT: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms appear likely today across much of the Mid-Atlantic region, and also parts of the Carolinas and New England. The severe risk should peak this afternoon and evening, before convection moves offshore or weakens. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely be the primary risk with these thunderstorms, but isolated hail and perhaps a tornado or two may also occur.

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Also from the spc

..Eastern U.S...

 Seasonally strong upper trough is currently located over IL and should advance into the OH Valley by 18z as stronger 500mb flow develops across western PA/NY. With time, 50+kt flow should translate into the Middle Atlantic, coincident/just ahead of the primary synoptic front. Latest model guidance suggests modest 0-3km  lapse rates will develop by mid day as the boundary layer warms ahead of the wind shift, especially from the Carolinas into Upstate NY. In fact, much of the I-95 corridor over the Middle Atlantic will warm quickly through the 80s to near 90F, effectively removing any inhibition. As a result, convection should readily develop within a very moist environment (PWs 1.75-2 inches) characterized by MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit deep west-southwesterly flow with 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. These profiles favor organized line segments and clusters, and severe wind gusts will likely be noted with the most robust activity. Convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening hours.

Full discussion from the spc is in the link below

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I'm trying out an experimental tool from the spc to do some overlays. 

Clear blue out ahead of the pre frontal with clearing skies ahead the main front. Apparently there will be enough destabilization storms will  initiate on both, but at the end of the day, the closer the storms initiate to the main front the better if you want more robust and mature storms further west and east. So I'm hoping to see a majority of convection break out along the CF and less along the PFT.  Hope and expectations are two different things.

 

[sauss06]

i'm almost thinking the Senators won't rain out todays afternoon game, finally a day game 

[pawatch]

SOS…Picked up .82” of rain yesterday, More serve storms in the forecast today.

Grass needs mowed but yard is getting pretty saturated with all the rain, first time that has really happened. 

River is at action stage 9.4’ 

67 degrees 

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center 

rsooendptS93ll8l6h0ia7ih8m02l1ft471839mg0lah48h73ghu4fhflf88  · 

 

 

6/19 2:40 AM EDT: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms appear likely today across much of the Mid-Atlantic region, and also parts of the Carolinas and New England. The severe risk should peak this afternoon and evening, before convection moves offshore or weakens. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely be the primary risk with these thunderstorms, but isolated hail and perhaps a tornado or two may also occur.

 

I wish the the enhanced zone was centered over I-81 as opposed to I-95. We're still in a good area, but we're more in the formation zone as opposed to the maturity zone that Allentown and points east appear to be. 

 

[sauss06]

28 minutes ago, pawatch said:

SOS…Picked up .82” of rain yesterday, More serve storms in the forecast today.

Grass needs mowed but yard is getting pretty saturated with all the rain, first time that has really happened. 

River is at action stage 9.4’ 

67 degrees 

i started mowing yesterday afternoon, 10 minutes in a miracle happened...............it started raining again  

[Yardstickgozinya]

Hrrr  brings pf convection into wcpa around 2:00pm . Although it fires off storms on both fronts and Inbetween It likes the pft as the dominant line of convection.  By 4:00pm the leading convection has just crossed the Susquahanna river.