June 2025 Obs/Disco

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Today is a different beast from yesterday. When those westerlies start mixing down the temp is going to spike and the dews drop off. 

Although I still wonder if models are somewhat overmixing. The 3k NAM is still 70+ dews all day. The GFS is trying to mix down 50s dews with 100F+ temps. I'm tossing that without having some kind of prefrontal trough like we had in 7/2011.

[dryslot]

90.5/77°F

[40/70 Benchmark]

87.8

[dendrite]

Same location in CT...same time. 3k NAM vs GFS. The NAM is slightly more backed in the low levels with a lower mixed layer while the GFS is deeply mixed WNW flow up to H75.

 

[weatherwiz]

I would think the GFS is way overmixed 

[CoastalWx]

I still think dews drop to 60-65 in non PWS situations.

[mreaves]

8 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

nah, just the fact I live in a radpit that always beats the sensor at Keene Airport

It was half a degree.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I would think the GFS is way overmixed 

Yeah. But I still think we'll pull off some 100-101s even with dews near 70. But if the GFS is right we probably start talking 103-105 in the torch spots.

One other thing...in the KISS (keep it simple stupid) category. 850s are 22-23C midday. Lop a 15C on top of that and you have 37-38C (99-100F). If you want to go a little higher for some W component you've got 38-39C and you're in the 100-102F range. But I want to see 20kt from the WNW before I start going more wild with the downsloping.

[Typhoon Tip]

we'll have to watch out for all this cloud contamination getting in the way, huh -

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still think dews drop to 60-65 in non PWS situations.

Euro had some rogue spots in that range too, but a lot of 70+ over the interior.

[dendrite]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

we'll have to watch out for all this cloud contamination getting in the way, huh -

Snow cover in the valleys?

[dendrite]

91F at 9am for IZG.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw -

[dendrite]

9am hourlies for Tip.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Coming up quickly now. 88.2

[dryslot]

The dews just dropped from 77 to 73 over the last 15mins.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

The dews just dropped from 77 to 73 over the last 15mins.

Except with some elevation around Tolland...still about 83 there.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Except with some elevation around Tolland...still about 83 there.

Maybe they get to 85, GWDLT.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The dews just dropped from 77 to 73 over the last 15mins.

The dewpoint spike from evaporating dew is mixing out.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The dewpoint spike from evaporating dew is mixing out.

Getting some winds out of the NE as well here.

[dendrite]

6z MAV just for fun

CON 102
MHT 102
PSM 101
ASH 100

TAN 104
OWD 103
BOS 102
BED 102
FIT 101

BDL 102
HFD 101

OQU 101
PVD 100

PWM 100
IZG 100

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw -

I always use 30mb dew point product to get a since of the dews. It usually hints at those real juicy days or whether dews may mix out a bit. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Getting some winds out of the NE as well here.

Backdoor?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Backdoor?

Its back to ESE now, I'm guessing that contributed to the dip in temp and dews.

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah. But I still think we'll pull off some 100-101s even with dews near 70. But if the GFS is right we probably start talking 103-105 in the torch spots.

One other thing...in the KISS (keep it simple stupid) category. 850s are 22-23C midday. Lop a 15C on top of that and you have 37-38C (99-100F). If you want to go a little higher for some W component you've got 38-39C and you're in the 100-102F range. But I want to see 20kt from the WNW before I start going more wild with the downsloping.

I find it pretty impressive MET is still rocking out 100/101 while keeping the dews >70. But yeah if we mix out like the GFS says then some of those torch stations are def going to pull off a 103-105. BDL has been steadily dropping so see how it goes

[Boston Bulldog]

38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Every once in a while I get a whiff of decaying and drying up (fresh) dog poop...usually it's not very pleasant but for some reason on a day like today its kind of refreshing...just further adds to this experience. 

That’s the summer in Manhattan experience baby!! Not refreshing 

[40/70 Benchmark]

89.6

Just about to 90 now.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

6z MAV just for fun

CON 102
MHT 102
PSM 101
ASH 100

TAN 104
OWD 103
BOS 102
BED 102
FIT 101

BDL 102
HFD 101

OQU 101
PVD 100

PWM 100
IZG 100

Logan extrapolates to 102 ... It's 91 there now, and they're likely to click up one by 10 am - would fit the '10 after 10' fwiw

[Typhoon Tip]

Also, Plymouth has FIT at 87 ... that doesn't match the Meso/Utah product, but I'm not sure if there's some rounding convention differences either.  I mean 88 ... 87 who cares, just noticed it -

NWS: 

Jun 24, 9:00 am

88

70

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Also, Plymouth has FIT at 87 ... that doesn't match the Meso/Utah product, but I'm not sure if there's some rounding convention differences either.  I mean 88 ... 87 who cares, just noticed it -

Plymouth is correct for the hourly METARs.