June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[steve392]

68 with a cool breeze, I can live with this til November! 

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, steve392 said:

68 with a cool breeze, I can live with this til November! 

Clouds are getting thinner around the area, temps might rise in response. 

The Sun is a beast this time of year

[nycwinter]

as perfect as a day can be in late june:)

[Wannabehippie]

21 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be unseasonably cool. The mercury could struggle to reach 70° in New York City. It should rise into the lower 70s at Newark.

The chilly highs will challenge the record for lowest high temperatures two days after an 80° or above low at Central Park, JFK Airport, and Newark. The existing records are below:

Central Park: 71°, July 9, 1883
JFK Airport: 76°, July 23, 2019
Newark: 76°, July 23, 2019 

All of those readings followed lows of 80° two days earlier.

Central Park has had 72 lows of 80° or above; Newark has had 50; and, JFK Airport has had 16.

Temperatures will return mainly to the lower 80s for the remainder of June. Excessive heat does not appear likely to return in the near-term.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was +12.65 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.073 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.1° (1.1° above normal). 

 

I would love to get a weekend pattern where both Saturday, and Sunday are warm, sunny.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I would love to get a weekend pattern where both Saturday, and Sunday are warm, sunny.

at least we'll have that for Sunday

 

[Wannabehippie]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

The NAM is finally getting replaced after they stop updating it in March 2017.

 

Public Information Statement 25-41

National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, MD

845 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

To: Subscribers:

-NOAA Weather Wire Service

-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

-NOAAPORT

Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

From: Richard Bandy

Acting Director

NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center

Subject: Soliciting Comments on Proposed Discontinuation of the North

American Mesoscale (NAM) model and other Regional Modeling Systems to be

Replaced by the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) through July 26,

2025.

The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) at the National Centers for

Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is working towards replacing the North

American Mesoscale (NAM) model, the High Resolution Window (HiresW) aside

from the Guam domain, the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) and

the North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE) systems with the

implementation of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) in early 2026.

The NWS is seeking comments on this proposed change through July 26,

2025.

This transition to RRFS would provide an hourly updating modeling system

over a North America region at 3 km horizontal grid spacing, which,

combined with the model retirements, would greatly unify and simplify the

“convective scale” (approximately 3 km grid spacing) regional models

within the NWS operational modeling suite.

As a deterministic system running to 84 h, the RRFS would fully retire

the NAM, and nearly fully retire the HiresW (aside from the Guam domain).

As an ensemble forecast system, the RRFS Ensemble Forecast System (REFS)

would fully retire the HREF and NARRE systems.

The deterministic RRFS generates full domain output at 3 km grid spacing,

and subset grid output over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and

Alaska (AK) (at 3 km grid spacing), and Hawaii (HI) and Puerto Rico (PR)

(at 2.5 km grid spacing). The RRFS will also provide output from a

separate 1.5 km RRFS fire weather run, with output provided over a 5 x 5

degree rotated latitude longitude region. Details of the RRFS output

grids are available in

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/rrfs_info/rrfs_grids.txt

Relative differences between RRFS output products and the proposed-to-be-

retired system products will be discussed individually by the modeling

Is there any link to this news? I want to be able to share it around.

Thanks.

 

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Is there any link to this news? I want to be able to share it around.

Thanks.

 

You can find it here.

[Wannabehippie]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

You can find it here.

Thank you!

 

[LoboLeader1]

65F & overcast here in the Berks. I'm getting ready to put the boat in the lake this weekend, but it's not looking good wx wise up here. 71 back in HPN.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like a general steam bath pattern. 92/75 is no fun here either. 

Unfortunately, the 12z guidance wants to reload another 594+ ridge in about 10 days. I was hoping we could get a break from the 100° heat. But it looks like the pattern may have other ideas. Past instances of 103° to 105° heat didn’t usually have such a quick follow up of the ridge rebuilding. So maybe we can keep it more in the 95° to 100° range in early to mid-July rather than pushing 105° again. But who knows for sure with this climate. 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

High so far here is 69

[SACRUS]

Just now, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, the 12z guidance wants to reload another 594+ ridge in about 10 days. I was hoping we could get a break from the 100° heat. But it looks like the pattern may have other ideas. Past instances of 103° to 105° heat didn’t usually have such a quick follow up of the ridge rebuilding. So maybe we can keep it more in the 95° to 100° range in early July rather than pushing 105° again. But who knows for sure with this climate. 

 

 

 

The Euro op has 600 DM ridge center in MO/KS at H 288

[SnoSki14]

Could this be our CC induced summer from hell? Maybe

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

The Euro op has 600 DM ridge center in MO/KS at H 288

Yeah, I just saw that. The last few model runs really dig another trough out West. So more potential for another very strong heat dome. Maybe this one will line up a little further west rather than directly over the Northeast. So perhaps  pieces of major heat coming east from time to time. In any event, there was a big shift to warmer beginning with the 0z runs.
 

[donsutherland1]

JFK Airport and Newark saw their lowest high temperatures two days after an 80° or above low.

JFK Airport: 72° (old record: 76°, July 23, 2019)
Newark: 72° (old record: 76°, July 23, 2019) 

Temperatures will return to the lower 80s for tomorrow and then middle and perhaps upper 80s for the remainder of June. Newark could be near or just above 90° on several days. In addition, there will be a risk of a shower or thundershower during the weekend. 

Excessive heat does not appear likely to return through at least the first week of July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was +12.65 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.013 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2° (1.2° above normal). 

 

[rclab]

6 hours ago, Sundog said:

Your article from which these pics came from has a line that supports my position:

"In Wales, a 10-year study looking at the presence of anxiety and depression in 2.3 million medical records, found that the greenest home surroundings were associated with 40% less anxiety and depression than those living in the least green areas." 

We aren't meant to live piled up on top of one another. 

 Over half century ago I thought as you do and wanted desperately to live as you describe. I didn’t want to live so that when I coughed a neighbor could reach over and pat my back. Now nearing the end of my eighth decade I’m better off living with all I need within a short walk. Perhaps the present inner city environment is a bit like our ancestors. Cave drawing becoming graffiti. Depression, anxiety, anger as side effects of a green less environment can not be disputed. I just wanted to imagine how nice it would be to see an urban environment with buildings that resemble forested mountains. Stay well and thank you for your response. As always ….

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, rclab said:

 Over half century ago I thought as you do and wanted desperately to live as you describe. I didn’t want to live so that when I coughed a neighbor could reach over and pat my back. Now nearing the end of my eighth decade I’m better off living with all I need within a short walk. Perhaps the present inner city environment is a bit like our ancestors. Cave drawing becoming graffiti. Depression, anxiety, anger as side effects of a green less environment can not be disputed. I just wanted to imagine how nice it would be to see an urban environment with buildings that resemble forested mountains. Stay well and thank you for your response. As always ….

You live in a great neighborhood. Cobble Hill is one of the most in demand places to live in Brooklyn. Some people like a more urban setting and others more rural. You can be happy in many different types of environments.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DEf_vA7B4Fm/

 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, rclab said:

 Over half century ago I thought as you do and wanted desperately to live as you describe. I didn’t want to live so that when I coughed a neighbor could reach over and pat my back. Now nearing the end of my eighth decade I’m better off living with all I need within a short walk. Perhaps the present inner city environment is a bit like our ancestors. Cave drawing becoming graffiti. Depression, anxiety, anger as side effects of a green less environment can not be disputed. I just wanted to imagine how nice it would be to see an urban environment with buildings that resemble forested mountains. Stay well and thank you for your response. As always ….

all of that is great, I would just like to lower some of our high asthma rates (from NO2 pollution from car exhaust), high rates of diabetes and obesity (from excessive processed food consumption), light pollution and noise pollution that lead to depression, anxiety, insomnia, higher rates of cancer, etc. A solution that doesn't involve popping pills of course.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You live in a great neighborhood. Cobble Hill is one of the most in demand places to live in Brooklyn. Some people like a more urban setting and others more rural. You can be happy in many different types of environments.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DEf_vA7B4Fm/

 

I love that name Cobble Hill.  I wonder if one can ski down this hill in the winter after a nice snowstorm?

 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

JFK Airport and Newark saw their lowest high temperatures two days after an 80° or above low.

JFK Airport: 72° (old record: 76°, July 23, 2019)
Newark: 72° (old record: 76°, July 23, 2019) 

Temperatures will return to the lower 80s for tomorrow and then middle and perhaps upper 80s for the remainder of June. Newark could be near or just above 90° on several days. In addition, there will be a risk of a shower or thundershower during the weekend. 

Excessive heat does not appear likely to return through at least the first week of July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was +12.65 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.013 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2° (1.2° above normal). 

 

In the ENSO thread snowman19 just mentioned he thinks another major heatwave is becoming more likely for our area after July 15th, Don. Climatological heat peak is after July 20th, so it would be ideal for it to happen around then.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I just saw that. The last few model runs really dig another trough out West. So more potential for another very strong heat dome. Maybe this one will line up a little further west rather than directly over the Northeast. So perhaps  pieces of major heat coming east from time to time. In any event, there was a big shift to warmer beginning with the 0z runs.
 

I would love to see another short 100+ degree heatwave here, then maybe we can come close to matching some of the great historic summers of the past, like we had in 1953 (two two 100+ degree heatwaves), 1966 (three separate 100+ degree heatwaves) and 1983 (two 100+ degree heatwaves at JFK).... do you think we can come close to matching these great summers of the past, Chris?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Could this be our CC induced summer from hell? Maybe

This is finally a return to the great summers of the past like 1953, 1966 and 1983.  It was going to happen sooner or later, with or without CC.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, the 12z guidance wants to reload another 594+ ridge in about 10 days. I was hoping we could get a break from the 100° heat. But it looks like the pattern may have other ideas. Past instances of 103° to 105° heat didn’t usually have such a quick follow up of the ridge rebuilding. So maybe we can keep it more in the 95° to 100° range in early to mid-July rather than pushing 105° again. But who knows for sure with this climate. 

 

 

after mid July it's fair game because we'll have enough time to reload-- see the summers of 1953, 1966 and 1983 as prime examples of summers with multiple 100+ degree heatwaves.

 

[SACRUS]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

after mid July it's fair game because we'll have enough time to reload-- see the summers of 1953, 1966 and 1983 as prime examples of summers with multiple 100+ degree heatwaves.

 

'66 was a mid Jun - mid July focused heat summer,
1983 was hot throughout Jun-Jul-Aug / early Sep,1
953 was similar but had share of cooldowns culminating in the record torch late Aug-early September heat.

 

 

EWR-66-53-83.pdf

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

'66 was a mid Jun - mid July focused heat summer,
1983 was hot throughout Jun-Jul-Aug / early Sep,1
953 was similar but had share of cooldowns culminating in the record torch late Aug-early September heat.

 

 

EWR-66-53-83.pdf 289.65 kB · 1 download

1966 had that 101 in June but two more heatwaves in July that both surpassed 100, that was truly epic.  I think that's the only time JFK exceeded 100 three days in a row (or three days period lol), 101, 104, 101 from July 4-6, if I remember correctly (in 2010 they had three days out of four of 100+ during that same period).  NYC had a third heatwave after those two that exceeded 100 in mid July 1966.

 

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

In the ENSO thread snowman19 just mentioned he thinks another major heatwave is becoming more likely for our area after July 15th, Don. Climatological heat peak is after July 20th, so it would be ideal for it to happen around then.

 

That would fit the historic and 1991-2020 climate data.

The ECMWF weeklies are also quite warm.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

'66 was a mid Jun - mid July focused heat summer,
1983 was hot throughout Jun-Jul-Aug / early Sep,1
953 was similar but had share of cooldowns culminating in the record torch late Aug-early September heat.

 

 

EWR-66-53-83.pdf 289.65 kB · 1 download

1983 was epic but maybe NYC was suffering sensor issues back then too because JFK hit 100 in both July and August and NYC did not either time, but did hit 99 on September 11, 1983 which was the latest 99 on record.  There were 6 90+ days in September which was pretty amazing.  1983 was both NYC and JFK's summer of record for 90 degree days before 1991/1993 and 2010 happened respectively.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That would fit the historic and 1991-2020 climate data.

The ECMWF weeklies are also quite warm.

Maybe NYC will finally hit 100+ in the next heatwave and JFK will have two heatwaves with 100+ temperatures, the only other time that happened was in 1983 (NYC had 4 100+ degree days in 1953 evenly split between 2 heatwaves and 4 100+ degree days in 1966 divided between three heatwaves).

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

'66 was a mid Jun - mid July focused heat summer,
1983 was hot throughout Jun-Jul-Aug / early Sep,1
953 was similar but had share of cooldowns culminating in the record torch late Aug-early September heat.

 

 

EWR-66-53-83.pdf 289.65 kB · 1 download

I wonder if the cool downs in 1953 were similar to the one we are in right now? It did have two super heatwaves (heatwaves of 7+ days) and that all time record 12 day super heatwave that culminated in the all time September record of 102 and 4 days of 100+ evenly split between the two super heatwaves which was only matched in 1966 (which had 4 100+ days split between three heatwaves.)

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if the cool downs in 1953 were similar to the one we are in right now? It did have two super heatwaves (heatwaves of 7+ days) and that all time record 12 day super heatwave that culminated in the all time September record of 102 and 4 days of 100+ evenly split between the two super heatwaves which was only matched in 1966 (which had 4 100+ days split between three heatwaves.)

I attached the readings in the post above as a pdf for EWR.   Similar coold downs for sure and lower minimums in 1953