June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[uofmiami]

87.7 & 87.4 for the high temp at my stations today.

[donsutherland1]

A sustained period of above normal temperatures is now underway. Excessive heat will overspread the region tomorrow with the mercury soaring into the 90s across the region.

Extreme heat is likely Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. The ECMWF and GFS continue to show potential June monthly record heat for parts of the region.

June Monthly Records:

Bridgeport: 97°, June 9, 2008
Islip: 96°, June 24, 1966 and June 19, 1994
New York City-Central Park: 101°, June 29, 1934 and June 27, 1966
New York City-JFK Airport: 99°, June 29, 1949, June 26, 1952, June 30, 1964
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 101°, June 26, 1952 and June 13, 2017
Newark: 103°, June 27, 1952

June 26, 1952 is currently the hottest June day on record in and around the New York City area. Out of the five stations from the above list that were operating in 1952, three reached or exceeded 100° on June 26, 1952 (Central Park: 100°, LaGuardia Airport: 101°, and Newark: 102°). All five reached 95° or above. Two stations also saw 80° or above lows: Central Park: 81° and LaGuardia Airport: 84°. Both the number of 100° highs and 80° lows is the highest on record for June for this five-station area. 

For June 26, 1952, the five-station average high was 99.4°, the average low was 78.2°, and the mean was 88.4°. The average high and mean are the highest on record for June. The average low is the second highest on record for June. June 21, 2012 was the second hottest day, overall, in this region. Its average high was 96.8°. Its average low was 78.4°. Its mean was 87.6°. That average low was the highest on record for June. The average high and mean were the second highest for June.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was +2.11 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.206 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal). 

 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

you probably get a lot more snow than NYC too lol

This past winter we got only a few more inches than NYC, but we did much better than NYC the winter before that. NYC got only 7.5" for the winter of 23-24, but we got 20 inches here because we had an event in which we were lucky to get under death band. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

It's 91 here right now. Doesn't feel too bad out there with dewpoints in the low 60s. 

That'll change in a big way 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

This past winter we got only a few more inches than NYC, but we did much better than NYC the winter before that. NYC got only 7.5" for the winter of 23-24, but we got 20 inches here because we had an event in which we were lucky to get under death band. 

That one event where people got 10 inches in a 5 block wide band?

That's @FPizz favorite event. 

[Rjay]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A sustained period of above normal temperatures is now underway. Excessive heat will overspread the region tomorrow with the mercury soaring into the 90s across the region.

Extreme heat is likely Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. The ECMWF and GFS continue to show potential June monthly record heat for parts of the region.

June Monthly Records:

Bridgeport: 97°, June 9, 2008
Islip: 96°, June 24, 1966 and June 19, 1994
New York City-Central Park: 101°, June 29, 1934 and June 27, 1966
New York City-JFK Airport: 99°, June 29, 1949, June 26, 1952, June 30, 1964
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 101°, June 26, 1952 and June 13, 2017
Newark: 103°, June 27, 1952

June 26, 1952 is currently the hottest June day on record in and around the New York City area. Out of the five stations from the above list that were operating in 1952, three reached or exceeded 100° on June 26, 1952 (Central Park: 100°, LaGuardia Airport: 101°, and Newark: 102°). All five reached 95° or above. Two stations also saw 80° or above lows: Central Park: 81° and LaGuardia Airport: 84°. Both the number of 100° highs and 80° lows is the highest on record for June for this five-station area. 

For June 26, 1952, the five-station average high was 99.4°, the average low was 78.2°, and the mean was 88.4°. The average high and mean are the highest on record for June. The average low is the second highest on record for June. June 21, 2012 was the second hottest day, overall, in this region. Its average high was 96.8°. Its average low was 78.4°. Its mean was 87.6°. That average low was the highest on record for June. The average high and mean were the second highest for June.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was +2.11 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.206 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal). 

 

I predict all the June records fall on Tuesday except the Park

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I predict all the June records fall on Tuesday except the Park

The Park will be tough.

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A sustained period of above normal temperatures is now underway. Excessive heat will overspread the region tomorrow with the mercury soaring into the 90s across the region.

Extreme heat is likely Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. The ECMWF and GFS continue to show potential June monthly record heat for parts of the region.

June Monthly Records:

Bridgeport: 97°, June 9, 2008
Islip: 96°, June 24, 1966 and June 19, 1994
New York City-Central Park: 101°, June 29, 1934 and June 27, 1966
New York City-JFK Airport: 99°, June 29, 1949, June 26, 1952, June 30, 1964
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 101°, June 26, 1952 and June 13, 2017
Newark: 103°, June 27, 1952

June 26, 1952 is currently the hottest June day on record in and around the New York City area. Out of the five stations from the above list that were operating in 1952, three reached or exceeded 100° on June 26, 1952 (Central Park: 100°, LaGuardia Airport: 101°, and Newark: 102°). All five reached 95° or above. Two stations also saw 80° or above lows: Central Park: 81° and LaGuardia Airport: 84°. Both the number of 100° highs and 80° lows is the highest on record for June for this five-station area. 

For June 26, 1952, the five-station average high was 99.4°, the average low was 78.2°, and the mean was 88.4°. The average high and mean are the highest on record for June. The average low is the second highest on record for June. June 21, 2012 was the second hottest day, overall, in this region. Its average high was 96.8°. Its average low was 78.4°. Its mean was 87.6°. That average low was the highest on record for June. The average high and mean were the second highest for June.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was +2.11 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.206 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal). 

 

On June 26, 1952 as I showed previously, JFK reached 99 on a SSW wind and when the wind switched to WSW it was at 99 for two more hours.  It's possible 100 was reached in between hours on that day there but not recorded.  I think it shows that JFK can reach 100 there in June even on an onshore wind in June.

 

 

[Sundog]

The wind really picked up out there

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Park will be tough.

Perhaps that equipment should be moved downtown.

Park temperatures are not what New York City residents typically experience.

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Perhaps that equipment should be moved downtown.

Park temperatures are not what New York City residents typically experience.

 

Just cut back the canopy that towers around the station. 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, Sundog said:

That one event where people got 10 inches in a 5 block wide band?

That's @FPizz favorite event. 

Was that the winter where JFK got two 6 inch events within 10 days of each other? and NYC's largest event was 4 inches lol

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

 

Just cut back the canopy that towers around the station. 

This sounds so easy to do that it makes me think there's a reason they don't do it.

Maybe they're counting on the canopy to hide the equipment from vandals.

I don't know why they don't surround it with a barbed wire electrified fence.

[Sundog]

The always overheated GEMLAM has high heat for us Tuesday but the highest is actually in southern NJ. This is 2PM Tuesday:

[donsutherland1]

Despite the expected extreme heat, it is possible that New York City's Central Park will fall short of the criteria needed to qualify as an extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 Methodology). To get there, there would need to be at least 3 97° highs, every high during the period would need to be 90° or above, and the average high during the period would need to be 97° or above. 

Below is a list of such events:

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

On June 26, 1952 as I showed previously, JFK reached 99 on a SSW wind and when the wind switched to WSW it was at 99 for two more hours.  It's possible 100 was reached in between hours on that day there but not recorded.  I think it shows that JFK can reach 100 there in June even on an onshore wind in June.

 

 

I believe JFK had a maximum-minimum thermometer, so the high should be accurate even if it occurred between hours.

[Wannabehippie]

57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A sustained period of above normal temperatures is now underway. Excessive heat will overspread the region tomorrow with the mercury soaring into the 90s across the region.

Extreme heat is likely Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. The ECMWF and GFS continue to show potential June monthly record heat for parts of the region.

June Monthly Records:

Bridgeport: 97°, June 9, 2008
Islip: 96°, June 24, 1966 and June 19, 1994
New York City-Central Park: 101°, June 29, 1934 and June 27, 1966
New York City-JFK Airport: 99°, June 29, 1949, June 26, 1952, June 30, 1964
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 101°, June 26, 1952 and June 13, 2017
Newark: 103°, June 27, 1952

June 26, 1952 is currently the hottest June day on record in and around the New York City area. Out of the five stations from the above list that were operating in 1952, three reached or exceeded 100° on June 26, 1952 (Central Park: 100°, LaGuardia Airport: 101°, and Newark: 102°). All five reached 95° or above. Two stations also saw 80° or above lows: Central Park: 81° and LaGuardia Airport: 84°. Both the number of 100° highs and 80° lows is the highest on record for June for this five-station area. 

For June 26, 1952, the five-station average high was 99.4°, the average low was 78.2°, and the mean was 88.4°. The average high and mean are the highest on record for June. The average low is the second highest on record for June. June 21, 2012 was the second hottest day, overall, in this region. Its average high was 96.8°. Its average low was 78.4°. Its mean was 87.6°. That average low was the highest on record for June. The average high and mean were the second highest for June.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was +2.11 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.206 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal). 

 

Will we get an old fashioned heat wave with 90+ temps that lasts at least 5 days?

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite the expected extreme heat, it is possible that New York City's Central Park will fall short of the criteria needed to qualify as an extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 Methodology). To get there, there would need to be at least 3 97° highs, every high during the period would need to be 90° or above, and the average high during the period would need to be 97° or above. 

Below is a list of such events:

why did they pick such a weird number-- 97? 100 should be the number.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite the expected extreme heat, it is possible that New York City's Central Park will fall short of the criteria needed to qualify as an extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 Methodology). To get there, there would need to be at least 3 97° highs, every high during the period would need to be 90° or above, and the average high during the period would need to be 97° or above. 

Below is a list of such events:

1977 and 1993 really stand out in this list

[Sundog]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

why did they pick such a weird number-- 97? 100 should be the number.

 

Then there would have only been one event that qualified as per Don's chart. 

100 is too high for our area. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Then there would have only been one event that qualified as per Don's chart. 

100 is too high for our area. 

which one would stand out if 100 was the criteria, 1993?

oh nevermind I thought one of the criteria was three straight days above that number

if going by average high it's definitely 1966.

you could argue that 2010 would also meet the criteria since 99.5 rounds up to 100

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why did they pick such a weird number-- 97? 100 should be the number.

 

The value is based on percentile ranking. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The value is based on percentile ranking. 

Don, do 1966 and 2010 meet the criteria at JFK? Do any of those other years? I know JFK had 3 days out of 4 in 2010 at 100 or above and in 1966 they had three straight days of 100+?

[Sundog]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

which one would stand out if 100 was the criteria, 1993?

1966 is the only one where the average was over 100. 

But it's not fair to have the whole period average over a certain number, basically if there are 5 days over 90 all 5 days qualify but if two out of those 5 days the average was 90 and the other three days it was 106, it would still not average over 100 over the 5 day period, despite those three days being absolutely epic heat. 

Yet if the 90 degree days were only 89 degrees they wouldn't be counted as part of the period and the average would shoot up despite technically being a cooler stretch. 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite the expected extreme heat, it is possible that New York City's Central Park will fall short of the criteria needed to qualify as an extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 Methodology). To get there, there would need to be at least 3 97° highs, every high during the period would need to be 90° or above, and the average high during the period would need to be 97° or above. 

Below is a list of such events:

1953 and 1955 are absolutely wild because they each had two such periods.  Don the second period in 1953 could be extended into early September when it peaked at 102.....

 

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, do 1966 and 2010 meet the criteria at JFK? Do any of those other years? I know JFK had 3 days out of 4 in 2010 at 100 or above and in 1966 they had three straight days of 100+?

I will check out JFK. The thresholds differ from those at Central Park.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

1966 is the only one where the average was over 100. 

But it's not fair to have the whole period average over a certain number, basically if there are 5 days over 90 all 5 days qualify but if two out of those 5 days the average was 90 and the other three days it was 106, it would still not average over 100 over the 5 day period, despite those three days being absolutely epic heat. 

Yet if the 90 degree days were only 89 degrees they wouldn't be counted as part of the period and the average would shoot up despite technically being a cooler stretch. 

Yep and 2010 comes really close and rounds up to 100 since it's 99.5

I'm convinced JFK exceeded 100 in both 1966 and 2010 because they had 3 days of 100+ both times (three in a row in the first one and three days out of four in the second one.)

 

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Then there would have only been one event that qualified as per Don's chart. 

100 is too high for our area. 

The 1948 event would have been shortened to August 26-28, as there were three consecutive 100° highs.

[TWCCraig]

30 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The always overheated GEMLAM has high heat for us Tuesday but the highest is actually in southern NJ. This is 2PM Tuesday:

Thats 2pm Monday, GEMLAM only goes out 48 hours

[donsutherland1]

JFK's extreme heat events: