2025 Tropical Tracking Thread

[bncho]

59 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Again, we’re getting a Feb 19-20 redux. This is the “throw us a bone” run and 0z will be even further south and east than 12z was.

there's no february 19-20 redux dude. we're not talking about a blizzard, we're talking about a hurricane.

[WxWatcher007]

Some evening analysis

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Although the convection is weak and disorganized, recon is now showing a much more well defined circulation, which if it holds will allow for gradual organization. 

Note how much tighter the circulation is in the image above, compared to some of the recon images posted earlier. You can also see a pocket of slightly stronger winds on the far eastern side of the system. Below you can see how the circulation is becoming better organized. Slowly. 

Convection is weak, but there has been some firing of stronger thunderstorms near the center. 

Shear has remained an issue through the day, but analysis shows that the shear may be abating, especially near the center. 

TD9 is in one of the best thermal environments in the entire Atlantic, so if it can start generating deep convection over its tightening center it should gradually intensify. 

While I am posting the SHIPS here, there looks to have been a bit of an uptick from hurricane guidance in overall intensity over the coming days. That's something we'll need to pay attention to, with the caveat that the trough and possible dry air will continue to lurk and will likely put a cap on intensity. 

 

Now for the track. There is increasing confidence that future Imelda will in fact turn away from the SE coast, but there is still a lot of uncertainty on how close the center gets to the coast and critically, the speed of the turn. Most guidance now turns the system away from the coast and accelerates it east into an Humberto created weakness. 

But within this evolving track forecast there are two diverging camps. The first, and most numerous, is one that easily follows Humberto out to sea. The second, which is led by the Euro and Euro AI to an extent, turns the system more slowly and allows a ridge to build over the top and close the escape route. The result is Imelda being turned back toward the coast. 

There aren't a lot of members that are held back, but the ones that do are pretty strong. 

So while it very well may be the case that this does turn and accelerate out to sea, there's still uncertainty. Remember, the models struggled with this inside of 100 hours. I'm not sure we should be locking in anything 5+ days out yet. Additional recon and finally having a well defined center should help with both track and intensity guidance. 

Finally, just because this is likely to stay offshore initially, that doesn't mean no impacts. TS force winds, coastal flooding, and flash flooding are still squarely hazards for coastal FL, GA, and the Carolinas. Just slight track changes could make the flood threat more impactful along the coast. 

 

[Weather Will]

What a complete fold by the EURO models.  Hail the new ICON/ Canadian Kings!!!  In all seriousness, I will not fall for the EURO snow storm looks this winter when the other models show nothing....

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

What a complete fold by the EURO models.  Hail the new ICON/ Canadian Kings!!!  In all seriousness, I will not fall for the EURO snow storm looks this winter when the other models show nothing....

lol you will be all over it- posting snow maps every model cycle.

[WxWatcher007]

The Euro has been just another model for a long time now. Even though this turn was part of the envelope of possibilities, what’s particularly jarring was the Euro/GFS and their ensembles choosing the wrong path together inside 100 hours. That’s noteworthy imo. The AI models seem to have schooled the legacy guidance on this one. 

[Terpeast]

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The Euro has been just another model for a long time now. Even though this turn was part of the envelope of possibilities, what’s particularly jarring was the Euro/GFS and their ensembles choosing the wrong path together inside 100 hours. That’s noteworthy imo. The AI models seem to have schooled the legacy guidance on this one. 

The AI models still have a long way to go, but they have been particularly good at predicting tropical cyclone tracks. 

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The AI models still have a long way to go, but they have been particularly good at predicting tropical cyclone tracks. 

They have certainly earned my respect this season. 

[Weather Will]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

They have certainly earned my respect this season. 

Didn't the EURO AI have several runs run up the coast before caving to the ICON/Canadian?

[WxWatcher007]

26 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Didn't the EURO AI have several runs run up the coast before caving to the ICON/Canadian?

Yes

[WxWatcher007]

Should've posted this yesterday but it actually makes more sense today as Imelda is on an intensification trend. Imelda adds to the list and should become a hurricane. Outside shot at a major. The peak season forecast is still up in the air, but with activity still expected on the models and in the areas I highlighted, I like where I sit. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (4)
Hurricanes: 6 (2)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (2)

Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda

[87storms]

They have certainly earned my respect this season. 

Still kinda learning about AI, but after creating a few neural nets and slogging through understanding activation functions, gradient descent, loss functions, etc, it makes sense why these models (whatever architecture they’re using) could perform well on handling all the dimensions and chaos involved. It’s pure math and stats under the hood. The challenge will be dealing with the black box nature of deep learning algorithms, though I know explainable AI is becoming a thing. Computational cost is another topic as well.

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

Still kinda learning about AI, but after creating a few neural nets and slogging through understanding activation functions, gradient descent, loss functions, etc, it makes sense why these models (whatever architecture they’re using) could perform well on handling all the dimensions and chaos involved. It’s pure math and stats under the hood. The challenge will be dealing with the black box nature of deep learning algorithms, though I know explainable AI is becoming a thing. Computational cost is another topic as well.

Yours too, eh?  I also have a neural net processor.  Too bad it's set to read-only from the factory.  

[87storms]

Yours too, eh?  I also have a neural net processor.  Too bad it's set to read-only from the factory.  

lol, literally taking a class rn on deep learning and neural nets (one more paper left on GANs). There’s a lot of free code out there to use. MNIST has been my dataset of choice…aka the “hello world” of neural networks. It’s fascinating stuff, but very computationally expensive. I have no idea what AIFS uses, but I imagine it’s not trivial.

[WxWatcher007]

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (4)
Hurricanes: 6 (3)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (2)

Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H)

[WxWatcher007]

From my peak season forecast:

“As the EPS suggests, we could start seeing favorable conditions return even earlier in the peak period, but I think a conservative expectation of things to heat up with the MJO after the 20th is the best route. That would make the September 20-October 20 period most active.”

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Northeast flow from the two hurricanes triggering flood advisories. Along the coast. 

[WxWatcher007]

Closing the book on September. I'll have an update on what to watch for in October tomorrow. 

[87storms]

28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Closing the book on September. I'll have an update on what to watch for in October tomorrow. 

In a spiritual kinda way, I feel like hurricanes are acting proportional to how our pattern has been the last few years...downsloping, nw flow, ots...not all the time, but that seems like the base state, even more so than usual.  We're due for a nor'easter pattern.

[WxWatcher007]

We've made it to October, and with Imelda in its final act and just under three weeks left in the peak season forecast, it's time to take a look at what comes next. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (4)
Hurricanes: 6 (3)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (2)

Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H)

First, there's still plenty of potential left in the basin. Although climo is quickly shifting westward, we still see robust AEWs moving into the basin, and one of those will actually be an area of interest discussed below. Yes, there is dry air/SAL in the tropical Atlantic, but look at the ITCZ and the convection we have there. This will go a long way toward ensuring the survival of the coming waves. 

 

A key part of what happens the rest of the period will center around intraseasonal forcing. Will the MJO remain in a favorable state for TC genesis and landfall risk? Will we get a CCKW that enhances the opportunity for waves to develop? The signals are mixed, but I think we will remain in a favorable period overall through the end of October. As I stated in my peak season forecast, I still think we rapidly end the season at the end of the month however. 

In terms of getting more NS and H, the basin continues to be primed for it, with SST anomalies still robust throughout the Atlantic. As we shift toward activity in the climo favored spots off the SE coast, Gulf, and Caribbean--especially the western Caribbean, there is plenty of fuel for low to moderate end activity. 

The picture becomes more complicated when looking at high end activity, however. To be sure, there is plenty of OHC, especially in the western part of the basin.

But a deeper look shows that there are more localized regions where higher end activity is more likely. 

 

I don't think this changes much, but we definitely have to watch out for another potential MH if it gets into these zones of anomalously high OHC. 

Finally, we have been extremely lucky that nothing has formed in the Caribbean. Between anomalously high OHC and exceptionally low shear, we've been avoiding disaster--seriously. Now that climo is shifting into this region, we need to closely monitor 1) the development of a CAG by mid-October and 2) any tropical waves getting to the Caribbean. There is a strong signal for anomalously low wind shear to return--though this year has been incredibly conducive in the wind shear category. 

 

Alright, so what are we watching? I have three areas of interest. 

 

1. Tropical Atlantic Wave 
The Tropical Atlantic has been more of a bust this season as expected, in large part due to the prevalence of dry and stable air along with SAL. This has been an issue throughout the decade. However, those conditions are more limited now, and an active wave train has moistened a good part of the MDR. There is a strong cross guidance signal that a wave emerges and finds hospitable conditions in the ITCZ. This should eventually lead to some level of development, as evidenced by the models. I am bullish on development.

 

2. SE Coast/Gulf
This is the second lemon by the NHC, and it's no surprise given that there has been a signal for a few days now. In the wake of Imelda, we have a boundary that is left behind, and along it we have some vorticity trying to spin up. Now, whether that becomes a low is unclear, but we do know that climo starts to favor these kinds of things in October. The limiting factors are proximity to land, and time. Whatever develops should cross Florida and into the Gulf, but is unlikely to meander there with time to develop into anything serious. This probably has a decent chance of development, though not nearly as high as area #1. It's worth a casual eye. 

 

3. Caribbean CAG
This is the one to watch, even though there isn't a significant development signal, yet. Toward the middle of the month, guidance is starting to show the development of a Central American Gyre, which favors slow, but gradual tropical genesis. The CPC has picked up on it, and recent years have shattered the mold on what CAGs can become. Recently, they've become some of our most destructive storms.

With wind shear expected to drop significantly and the thermal environment in the Caribbean, along with the increased tendency for troughing in the east around this time, our next significant threat may very well come from this region. 

[WxWatcher007]

Signal for some sort of hybrid or subtropical system off the coast near mid month. 

[WxWatcher007]

Hello, Jerry! This one has major potential if it can avoid shear. If this were August or early September, this would probably be a Caribbean cruiser given its latitude. But we're approaching mid-October, and that means a trough will carry this one out to sea after a close call with the islands. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (5)
Hurricanes: 6 (3)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (2)

Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H), Jerry

With Jerry forming and forecasted to become a hurricane, that would put me in a good range for H and potentially have me spot on for MH.

[WxWatcher007]

Surprise! Karen is here. 

Jerry is struggling and MH is looking unlikely, but H is still in the forecast. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (6)
Hurricanes: 6 (3)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (2)

Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H), Jerry, Karen 

[WxWatcher007]

Lorenzo is here. Tropical Atlantic producing more than the climo favored areas  

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (7)
Hurricanes: 6 (3)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (2)

Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H), Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo

 

[WxWatcher007]

I missed on Melissa by 12 hours, but this one is exactly what I talked about in Caribbean risk. It’s a powder keg. 
 

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[dailylurker]

Come on baby. Keep pushing west. Fingers crossed for Jamaica.

[WxWatcher007]

On 8/20/2025 at 9:18 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

August 20 is here, which means the bell has been rung. 

WxWatcher007 2025 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast

As a major hurricane churns off the east coast, we have reached the start of the peak of the hurricane season. So far, we've had 5 named storms, 1 hurricane, and 1 major...and one category five hurricane. 

The start of the season has been quiet, and while the general thought has remained that the season overall is likely to finish above average, my forecast looks at prime time. The background state of this season, unlike past years, has been quite hostile across the basin, but beneath the surface, conditions have been lining up for another active backloaded season. 

I define peak season as August 20-October 20, and this forecast covers that period. This is my 7th year writing such a forecast, and my record has been very good on balance, with the exception of one season.  

Seasonal Grades

2019 Grade: B+
2020 Grade: A-
2021 Grade: C
2022 Grade: B
2023 Grade: A
2024 Grade: B

Last year, we had a historically quiet first half of the peak season, with Ernesto forming on August 12th and no named system forming until Francine on September 9th. From there, all hell broke loose, with six additional hurricanes, three of them major, and two, Helene and Milton, being historic. 

This season it has been a struggle to get anything to survive in the basin, until Erin of course. The coming weeks likely bring a quiet period that may very well be reminiscent of last season. Then, the lid comes off.

ACE will flatline for a bit after Erin and the possible central Atlantic wave, but I think this year is shaping up to be another highly active second half peak. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes: 3

As a reminder a typical season finishes at 14/7/3

Here are the major factors contributing to my forecast this season.  

1. ENSO

We start here and you always should. This year, ENSO favors activity. We are under a La Nina watch, so this is not the same kind of highly favorable regime that we had during our recent Nina stretch, but ENSO neutral conditions can still be very favorable. 

The 3.4 region has been cool neutral through the spring and summer, and if anything has cooled recently. This has big implications for the Atlantic basin, as a cool neutral ENSO brings many of the same impacts as a Nina, most notably, lower wind shear. 

(Image courtesy of Michael Lowry. Note the tracks as well) 

A cool neutral ENSO should bring us lower than normal wind shear in much of the basin during the peak, giving me confidence that we get a substantial number of hurricanes and major hurricanes, should they overcome some of the other obstacles in the basin. 

2. West African Monsoon

The WAM is a tricky beast. Last year, I think it running a bit hot led to some of the waves coming off Africa far too north, enhancing major stability issues and the SAL intrusions we saw in the tropical Atlantic.  

It was only in the last week or so that we started to see the wave train go, but it had a very different result from last year, with less SAL kicked up, though there has certainly been plenty of SAL out there in the basin. As the image below suggests, we will see above average precipitation across north Africa, which essentially serves as a proxy for the strength and persistence of the wave train.  

Shout out to CSU for putting me onto this longer range product. 

3. Wind Shear

This is a huge piece of what's going to determine the outcome of the peak forecast. As stated earlier, a non-El Nino season tends to have much less shear across the basin, and with a cool neutral ENSO it is highly likely that shear is less of an issue off the U.S. east coast and into the Caribbean. This has already proven to be the case as summer advances toward fall in the Caribbean and off the east coast. The tropical Atlantic, which I continue to believe will not be nearly as conducive for activity as it could be, has been the opposite. 

Although it is likely to be quiet during this period, you can see how deep layer shear becomes anomalously low across much of the basin as we move into the September high peak. I don't see a ton of anticyclonic wave breaking during the peak which would gut activity from the basin, but as we know, whether a wave develops and how much depends on in-situ shear often. Just knowing that the background state for shear will be favorable is more than enough for August 20. 

4. SST & OHC

I think the defining feature of this season will be the activity being concentrated in the SW Atlantic. Perhaps fortunately for my forecast, Erin kind of provides proof of concept. Erin came off the African coast as a robust wave, but ran into SAL to its north. Although that stunted its development for a few days, a warmer western Atlantic, low shear, and higher OHC led to explosive development. 

Sea surface temperature anomalies and ocean heat content were two major concerns I had going into this season, and for a while, it looked like it would greatly reduce potential. Erin's wake notwithstanding I think SSTs and OHC are now some of the chief reasons why I expect another high end peak. 

This analysis from Andy Hazelton sealed it for me. 

The pattern the last few years has remained fairly consistent in this forecast. The best conditions are west of about 60W, with higher OHC. This year we have SST anomalies in the mix, with the highest anomalies in the basin in record territory in the western Atlantic. 

Here was 2024 for reference. 

What a difference a year makes. 

Erin's wake will likely recover, especially considering how high OHC levels are in the southwest Atlantic. While the tropical Atlantic SSTs are running behind other recent historic years, that is not the case where it matters for impacts in our neck of the woods, with the Gulf and Caribbean untapped, and the SW Atlantic warmer than past years. 

 

OHC however, is where the real concern for higher end activity lies. Much like SSTs, in the tropical Atlantic the warmth is lower than in the Gulf and Caribbean. But look at the western Atlantic and the east coast in particular. 

 

It is the SW Atlantic where anomalies show that even in Erin's wake, there is plenty of heat there for any coastal storm that is close enough to take advantage of it. 

The bottom line is that the SST and OHC orientation is such that a high end peak is possible, especially in the western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf. 

5. MJO & CCKW

The MJO and CCKWs that triggered the wave train have passed, and as we enter the peak of the season we are flipping to an unfavorable state in the basin. This alone should suppress activity as we are only at the beginning of the ramp up period for the peak. How long this lasts is TBD, and we have to keep in mind that while it may suppress MDR activity there are certainly short fuse named storms that could happen in a more favorable thermodynamic environment in the western Atlantic, western Caribbean, and Gulf. 

That said, things are likely to get quiet in terms of numbers, but the change is likely temporary. The MJO is expected to return on the second half of the peak. We saw last year that you don't need a lot of time to get the Atlantic to boil once the lid comes off. As the EPS suggests, we could start seeing favorable conditions return even earlier in the peak period, but I think a conservative expectation of things to heat up with the MJO after the 20th is the best route. That would make the September 20-October 20 period most active. 

6. Stability, Dry Air, and SAL

The final factor is perhaps the biggest in the early part of the forecast, and less so in the latter half as climatology takes over. It has actually been a lower end year for SAL in the basin, but once again the timing of SAL intrusions and peak climatology for SAL suppressed activity until Erin. Compare this to 2023 and 2024. Images courtesy of Michael Lowry. 

The recent wave train has helped clear the way to an extent for future waves, and although I don't expect a lot of development from the MDR in the coming two to three weeks, even waves that do not develop have the benefit of moistening the environment, just as our recent failed invest did, to pave the way for higher end activity. Even though there is SAL in the basin, it's not nearly as bad as it has been in recent years at this time in the tropical Atlantic. 

 

But SAL is only one part of this equation. We also have to look at base stability, which continues to be an issue in the eastern MDR. Vertical instability has been below normal for years in the eastern Atlantic, with instability improving the further west you go. This, like other years, is one of the biggest factors for believing the western Atlantic will be the hot spot. 

The east coast and Gulf have had extremely high levels of instability, which likely contributed to some of our early invests. 

Instability rises dramatically in September and October in the tropical Atlantic as climatology shifts and SAL reaches its nadir. I see no reason to question this again in 2025. As we saw in recent years, even if late August and early September are quiet due to a combination of SAL and stability, that lid still gets ripped off by late September provided an active wave train can moisten the environment. 

Overall

It may not start out hot (though I would watch the area in the central Atlantic for becoming the first NS/H for the peak period), but I expect another high end and backloaded peak season. The biggest piece of the puzzle--what the MDR SST and OHC profile would evolve into--has been answered, and it is high end again. None of this is normal, but that's the state that we have been in since 2017 in the Atlantic. An unfavorable MJO and declining climatology for SAL and stability in the eastern MDR will likely stunt high quantity activity through about mid-September, but things will likely reverse in a big way for the last 4-5 weeks of the peak season period. 

Unlike last season, I do not expect a lot of activity late into the season, like we saw last year in November. I think a less robust WAM will produce less waves by then that are able to cross the Atlantic, and a less favorable MJO by the time we get to very late October. 

Landfall Odds

I think a combination of ENSO, the active WAM, wind shear, instability, and SST/OHC will make the southwest Atlantic the hot spot this year. This is consistent with historical trends of a wet Sahel and moving from ENSO regimes. Images courtesy of Eric Webb. 

Note that the Gulf still gets storms, but I think this is a quieter year for that region. I think given what we've seen so far, and some of the long range steering pattern guidance (which is to be taken with a grain of salt), the central and eastern Caribbean, Bermuda, east coast, and Atlantic Canada--which is on a historic run of tropical cyclone landfalls--are most likely to be under the gun this season. 

I think there are a lot of recurves this season, but several threats for the region I highlighted. I think there is at least one east coast hurricane strike this year, and that we continue our streak of major hurricane strikes on the U.S. coastline.

Whether that means the east coast breaks its 21-year streak of no major hurricane landfalls, or New England breaks its 34-year streak of no hurricane landfalls (though I think the odd of this happening are substantially lower than the former) remains to be seen. 

If there is a New England strike, it would be something that comes from the Caribbean or a short fuse system in the southwest Atlantic, not a long track system. Ironically, the opposite would be true for a southeast coast--not including far eastern NC, which often gets scraped in a strike that ends in a landfall further north--with something developing east of the Antilles and getting trapped under a subtropical ridge. 

Thank you for reading. 

Alright, it's time to grade the peak season forecast. As you know, the period between August 20 and October 20 is graded. Melissa, our third category 5 hurricane of the season, was officially designated 11 hours after my forecast ended, but them's the breaks. Here's how the numbers shake out. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (7)
Hurricanes: 6 (3)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (2)

Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H), Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo

Missing Melissa so closely obviously hurts  

The numbers were fine overall. The biggest overestimation ended up being the number of hurricanes. This season is truly the definition of quality over quantity, with 60% of the limited hurricane activity consisting of C5s. This is only the second season on record with more than 2 C5s. In 2005 we had four. 

The overall forecast that we would have a similar peak season lull to 2024, and then have a highly active back half of the peak season was spot on. Even the more specific forecast of activity halting until after September 20 was nailed. That is a huge win, because many were losing confidence that there would even be meaningful activity given the stability issues in the basin. This alone puts me in good shape with the forecast grade, but let's examine each of the factors I analyzed in August. 

1. ENSO--I was right that cool ENSO would dominate the season, and that ended up being the case. That wasn't too hard a call given that we were in a Nina watch. The ENSO did end up facilitating lower wind shear in the basin, but the picture is a little more tricky as you'll see below. 

2. WAM--I expected an active WAM, but less so than last year where we had so many robust waves that it may have triggered more SAL and stability in the basin. The active WAM is evidenced by the strong waves that continued into October, and gave me some much needed help with my NS forecast at the end of the forecast period. Importantly, it also looks like after the wave that eventually became Melissa that wave train ended, right in alignment with my forecast. 

3. Wind shear--this is the first spot where I really ding myself. I was right that shear would be on the lower side off the east coast and Caribbean, and that was true.

Off the east coast, note the higher than normal shear in part of September and then the drop in late September into October. Decent. 

 

The Caribbean, however, was a powder keg waiting to explode. We see that now with Melissa being the only tangible wave to get to the Caribbean. 

I was dead wrong when I thought that anti-cyclonic wave breaking wouldn't be an issue in the basin this season. It was, and led to all of the TUTTs that absolutely gutted the basin of activity during the first 2/3 of September. Once that subsided, the basin lit up. 

4. SST/OHC--the second biggest call of the season was accurately predicting that the defining feature of the season would be activity in the SW Atlantic. 

The Atlantic SST distribution became favorable for activity right before peak season, and it produced. If anything, we underperformed given the complete lack of activity in the Caribbean and Gulf, which I didn't anticipate to this extent. Erin's wake recovered, as I expected, and we saw high end activity in the SW Atlantic during the period. 

5. MJO & CCKW--As expected, things became a lot more favorable once the MJO flipped to favorable the second half of the peak. The dates do not line up perfectly with my peak season forecast but as Phil Klotzbach notes 2025 is tied with 1941 and 2024 for the most Atlantic major hurricane formations (3 including Melissa) between Sept 22 and Oct 25. More on point, since 1970, only 7 seasons have had 5+ NS between Sept 17 and October 9, 2024 and 2025 are two of them. 

6. Stability, dry air, and SAL--I really was a believer that the stability issues that we've had this decade in the tropical Atlantic would be an inhibitor early in the forecast period, and that was really right. That will be a key factor in the overall numbers being lower for some seasonal forecasts. This has been very hard to overcome in August and September in the eastern Atlantic. 

That said, this statement was proven to be right:

Quote

As we saw in recent years, even if late August and early September are quiet due to a combination of SAL and stability, that lid still gets ripped off by late September provided an active wave train can moisten the environment. 

 

The activity would follow the wave train moistening the environment and waves getting to the western Atlantic. Surprisingly, we didn't get Gulf for Caribbean activity. Even the CAG signal that was present on the models at the start of October didn't work out. Odd, but the SW Atlantic was still a hub of activity. 

Overall
I called for a significant lull akin to 2024, followed by another high end and backloaded peak season. Two major hurricanes, one a C5, certainly fits the bill for effectively a four week peak. It seems as if the season will rapidly shut down after Melissa (again, outside the forecast period), but that seems to be another good call. There may be an uptick in the NS numbers with that possible subtropical event off the Mid-Atlantic a few weeks ago, but we grade as the numbers are as of October 20. I thought the Gulf would be quieter, but not completely dead. I called for a hurricane strike on the east coast and that missed, but only because we had a rare fujiwara interaction between Imelda off the southeast coast and Humberto, which unexpectedly rapidly intensified into a C5. We did not continue our streak of continental US MH landfalls. Fine by me. 

Grade: B+ 

 

 

Seasonal Grades

2019 Grade: B+
2020 Grade: A-
2021 Grade: C
2022 Grade: B
2023 Grade: A
2024 Grade: B
2025 Grade: B+