WxWatcher007 Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 May has arrived and preseason is here! That means it's time for the legacy thread. The Atlantic has been exceptionally busy since 2017, but it has thrown several curveballs over that period that has led to unexpected outcomes in the basin. Last year, after the earliest category 5 hurricane on record, we saw a historically quiet start to the climatological peak of the season, followed by a historically active back loaded season. This year, we do not have the same warmth and depth across the basin as 2024, but with a neutral to cool neutral ENSO likely--which would facilitate periods of low wind shear, a cooling Pacific, and still warm SSTs in the western Atlantic, another average to above average season is likely IMO. However, a major thing to watch is the cooler SST distribution in the tropical Atlantic which may not only temper the ceiling in that part of the basin, but also potentially continue the dramatic stability issues we've seen this decade. Last year, I was in Texas for Beryl, Louisiana for Francine, and Florida for Helene. The Gulf has been ground zero since 2017. We'll see if that continues this year. Beryl was the first storm where I had my window blown in Francine nudged east at the last minute and I missed the worst. Still a solid storm. Helene was the real deal. With 2024 in the books, I've now completed 16 tropical chases. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 2 Author Share Posted May 2 Some opening thoughts. Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Just going to make some blanket comments here. It's indisputable that there are numerous factors that determine whether a season is active or not. SSTs and OHC are just one piece of the puzzle and I think @cptcatz is right that they're often leaned on too much, but they are still a significant piece. SSTs should warm up some, as mentioned by the discussion earlier. That's not really where my caution flag lies. For me it's not just the tropical Atlantic SSTs that are important, the subtropics as well. This distribution has me concerned that the stability issues we've seen this decade will persist into the 2025 season. Now, that hasn't proven to stop the exceptional stretch of activity we've seen since 2017, but it's something to pay attention to considering possibly less ideal atmospheric conditions this season with the lack of a full blown Nina. We only need to look at last season and the historic lid that was placed on the entire basin due to SAL and systemic stability reinforced by an active AEW train as an extreme example of what can happen. Is there anyone willing to say right now that 60W to 20W won't have at least some problems with SAL and stability? There are still open questions about the WAM, how much the Pacific cools, and the actual ENSO that controls this summer/fall. I don't think it's unreasonable at all to throw up caution flags, even while leaning toward another above normal season. I don't think that's "mainstream" or whatever, it's looking at the evidence right in front of us. @jconsor, agree that the S&P forecast is interesting, though I am still skeptical of those kind of LR forecasts and their skill. Doesn't mean the science isn't being pushed forward though, which would be awesome to see. I do agree that we probably have a higher than normal likelihood for an active landfall season, but I'm not willing to paint landfall zones because idk if the skill is truly there outside of a month at most. @GaWx, I don't think we need SSTs to approach the last two years for a higher end NS season, but I do think we need an expansive region of high OHC for this year to produce higher end H and MH numbers. That's there, though not nearly to the extent of the prior two years. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Per X New ECMWF guidance shows near or slightly above average sea temperatures in the main development region for hurricanes this coming season. Well above average temperatures are forecast in the Gulf and western Atlantic, which can enhance activity close to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 High pressure to the North on many models this Summer into the Fall can help guide hurricanes to landfall in the SE this summer/fall on a higher probability scale. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 22 Author Share Posted May 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 26 Author Share Posted May 26 It looks like our first real window is starting to show up on guidance in the first or second week of June. Climatologically favored areas in the western Caribbean or Gulf. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 On 5/25/2025 at 8:00 PM, WxWatcher007 said: It looks like our first real window is starting to show up on guidance in the first or second week of June. Climatologically favored areas in the western Caribbean or Gulf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 27 Author Share Posted May 27 3 hours ago, frd said: Yeah there is modest cross guidance support. Long way out, but the repeated troughing we’ve seen this season suggests to me that any moisture drawn out of the Caribbean could find its way up the coast eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah there is modest cross guidance support. Long way out, but the repeated troughing we’ve seen this season suggests to me that any moisture drawn out of the Caribbean could find its way up the coast eventually. European precipitation pathways forecast long range indicates the potential for significant rainfall in the East somewhere past June 2nd to the middle of June 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 Woot woot. It's the second run in a row with a tropical system in this range. I'm sure it'll be rock solid for the next 30+ runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 31 Author Share Posted May 31 GFS with its usual genesis bias but the overall signal for a window remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 2 Author Share Posted June 2 Been watching a possible area off the SE coast in the next few days and NHC has a lemon for it now. Low chance but if it stay offshore it could become a weak low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 11 Author Share Posted June 11 Very interesting. Maybe a move from the Gulf threats to recurve and EC risk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Very interesting. Maybe a move from the Gulf threats to recurve and EC risk. East Coast favored if you believe these models 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Meant to post here. Despite it being on x https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1933292069834948947?t=_k5Uu-35wyMSNNeieTOJlw&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15 Author Share Posted June 15 All the vorticity that could’ve become a seedling for TC development has stayed in the EPAC, which has led to a furious start over there. The Atlantic window is probably closed for the foreseeable future, at least in the western Caribbean and Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago We have Andrea in the subtropics! BULLETIN Tropical Storm Andrea Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012025 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 24 2025 ...ANDREA BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.6N 48.9W ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andrea was located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 48.9 West. Andrea is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Weakening is expected to begin tonight, with Andrea dissipating by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Blake/Hagen 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The water vapor, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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