May 2025

[Sundog]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's a nuanced argument that can presented many different ways.

of course it's warming but....

1) winters are warming much more quickly than summers are

2) summer high temps are capped by the planet self regulating the excess heat by dumping it into the ocean, thus we're not getting the higher number of 90 degree days that we used to.

3) if you go by averages it does not matter either way, since mins are going up much faster than the maxes are.

4) the way I define heat as in number of 90 and 100 degree days and length of heat waves is only going up for areas well inland.

 

The increased water vapor has really jacked up our average dewpoint which is like a natural cap to very high temps. 

One of these years we are going to get strong, dry westerly winds in a heatwave and we are going to set very high temperature records. 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Do you think anyone cares if it says 89 vs 90 on an app?  I highly doubt it.  Both are hot and people will be wearing shorts minus nycsnow who will be wearing a light hoodie.  Only a few weather enthusiasts really care.  The same people that see 89 on an app also quote their cars when it says 95 when it is really 88.  

It really doesn't matter.  We use all historical data for the minimum/maximum records for any specific date, but only use the previous 20-30 year average for the day's average temperatures?  When people hear heat index temperatures, or wind chill, they think that is the actual temperature, so, it really doesn't matter,because all the really good looking girls would still go out with the guys from Mohawk cause they've got all the money!  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

He brought up a temp from app. No one cares about an arbitrary # that the weather community uses.  If it is 89 or 90, not a single person in the world would change anything in their lives including you.  No one also cares if it 35 or 33 on an app.   

Ok so maybe the Ap thing was a bad example. Where it does matter is in declaring official heat waves. Opening cooling centers for poor elderly and the homeless. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just took a nice 6 mile walk right on the ocean at Jones Beach. Senior cut day with kids running in and out of the water. Gorgeous beach day if you don’t mind a little bite in the east wind.

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Just took a nice 6 mile walk right on the ocean at Jones Beach. Senior cut day with kids running in and out of the water. Gorgeous beach day if you don’t mind a little bite in the east wind.

That water can't be more than 50-55 degrees---brrr

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

The increased water vapor has really jacked up our average dewpoint which is like a natural cap to very high temps. 

One of these years we are going to get strong, dry westerly winds in a heatwave and we are going to set very high temperature records. 

I hope and wish lol.

The longest heatwaves page the NWS has up for NYC really puts things into perspective.  I think NYC LGA EWR and JFK all had their longest heatwaves in 1953, 1993 and 1999.

 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Just took a nice 6 mile walk right on the ocean at Jones Beach. Senior cut day with kids running in and out of the water. Gorgeous beach day if you don’t mind a little bite in the east wind.

Gorgeous day, the clouds have held off.

Not going to see another one like this until next Sunday?

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models seem to be showing about an inch of rain this week particularly nyc on south and west which would give areas that still need some rain a good soaking 

Yes south Jersey and southeast PA really need it.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

It really doesn't matter.  We use all historical data for the minimum/maximum records for any specific date, but only use the previous 20-30 year average for the day's average temperatures?  When people hear heat index temperatures, or wind chill, they think that is the actual temperature, so, it really doesn't matter,because all the really good looking girls would still go out with the guys from Mohawk cause they've got all the money!  

I read this wrong

because all the really good looking girls would still go out with the guys with a Mohawk cause they've got all the money!  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That water can't be more than 50-55 degrees---brrr

Yeah I had me feet in and it stung. If I’m surfing it’s still full suit boots and gloves. 
Some of those kids are drunk/high. Allot of high schools choose jones beach for senior cut day due to the lack of rule enforcement. I mean, for mine back in 00 we burried a keg in ice the night before. Had the tap sticking out of a hole cut in a beach blanket. Ahhh the good old days. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Gorgeous day, the clouds have held off.

Not going to see another one like this until next Sunday?

Yeah the rest of the week looks like crap. Hopefully we can salvage at least some of Memorial Day weekend but the pattern isn’t conducive for beach weather either way.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah the rest of the week looks like crap. Hopefully we can salvage at least some of Memorial Day weekend but the pattern isn’t conducive for beach weather either way.

Memorial Day weekend is a long way off, I could see any rain being suppressed to our south by then.

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah the rest of the week looks like crap. Hopefully we can salvage at least some of Memorial Day weekend but the pattern isn’t conducive for beach weather either way.

usually chilly memorial day for the beach anyway-water is cold so any seabreeze and it's under 70 degrees

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah I had me feet in and it stung. If I’m surfing it’s still full suit boots and gloves. 
Some of those kids are drunk/high. Allot of high schools choose jones beach for senior cut day due to the lack of rule enforcement. I mean, for mine back in 00 we burried a keg in ice the night before. Had the tap sticking out of a hole cut in a beach blanket. Ahhh the good old days. 

We went to Great Adventure in Jackson-that was back when they had the animal safari...LOL

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

summer high temps are capped by the planet self regulating the excess heat by dumping it into the ocean, thus we're not getting the higher number of 90 degree days that we used to.

90° days have been increasing across the entire region. The only areas that haven’t seen a big increase are at near the immediate shore. But most people live away from the immediate shore areas. 

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

90° days have been increasing across the entire region. The only areas that haven’t seen a big increase are at near the immediate shore. But most people live away from the immediate shore areas. 

 

It's not increasing in the city either.  Furthermore we have not seen any of the lengthy heatwaves I cited earlier since 2002.  I think if we look at a population density map, we'll find that most people actually do live near the shore-- by shore I mean Brooklyn, Southern Queens, south shore of Long Island, etc.  The population density is less the further away from the ocean that you go.

It's not just the immediate shore.  Increasing rainfall is the major reason why we don't see lengthy heatwaves like we used to and until the rainfall goes down, that won't change.

[steve392]

B E A Utiful! Perfect day to mow the lawn this morning.  Some clouds but otherwise gorgeous out mid afternoon. 

 

Any idea around what time rain will move into our area tomorrow?  Trying to figure out when I shoukd treat for grubs. 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's not increasing in the city either.  Furthermore we have not seen any of the lengthy heatwaves I cited earlier since 2002.

It's not just the immediate shore.  Increasing rainfall is the major reason why we don't see lengthy heatwaves like we used to and until the rainfall goes down, that won't change.

Of course 90° days are increasing in the city. I showed you how the drop in 90° days is a function of measuring the temperatures under the trees in Central Park since 1995. Several areas had their warmest summer on record for 90° days as recently as 2022.

The immediate South Shore isn’t representative of what most of this forum experiences in the summer. This is a function of the ridge extending east of New England and turning the flow more onshore. So the sea breeze fronts have been setting up north of JFK and the Southern State Parkway on Long Island. Very rare in recent years for the sea breeze fronts to remain along the South Shore beaches like they did from the 1990s to 2013. 

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=CTCLIMATE&station=CT1762&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1950&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, steve392 said:

B E A Utiful! Perfect day to mow the lawn this morning.  Some clouds but otherwise gorgeous out mid afternoon. 

 

Any idea around what time rain will move into our area tomorrow?  Trying to figure out when I shoukd treat for grubs. 

it will have a tough time moving in at all especially N and E of the city-alot of dry air

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Maps look just a little better at 240 hours today. At least there's HP over the coastal waters of the southeastern U.S. It's a start maybe.

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2025051212/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_11.png

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Of course 90° days are increasing in the city. I showed you how the drop in 90° days is a function of measuring the temperatures under the trees in Central Park since 1995. Several areas had their warmest summer on record for 90° days as recently as 2022.

The immediate South Shore isn’t representative of what most of this forum experiences in the summer. This is a function of the ridge extending east of New England and turning the flow more onshore. So the sea breeze fronts have been setting up north of JFK and the Southern State Parkway on Long Island. Very rare in recent years for the sea breeze fronts to remain along the South Shore beaches like they did from the 1990s to 2013. 

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=CTCLIMATE&station=CT1762&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1950&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

2022 was nowhere near as hot as 2010 was, which was our heat benchmark.  You can even look at the number of 95 degree days and 100 degree days and we have not had anything like that since.  And 1993 had 9 100 degree days at Newark, which has not come close to being matched.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it will have a tough time moving in at all especially N and E of the city-alot of dry air

Good, we don't need any more rain.

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

2022 was nowhere near as hot as 2010 was, which was our heat benchmark.  You can even look at the number of 95 degree days and 100 degree days and we have not had anything like that since.  And 1993 had 9 100 degree days at Newark, which has not come close to being matched.

 

95° and 100° days were close in 2022 to 2010 in NJ.

2022 95° days

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Newark Area	ThreadEx	20
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	20
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	16
HARRISON	COOP	16
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	16
CANOE BROOK	COOP	14
LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST	COOP	13
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	13
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	12
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	10
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	10
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	10
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	10
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	10
MANASQUAN 1 NW	COOP	10

 

NJ 100° days

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	6
Newark Area	ThreadEx	6
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	5
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	5
CANOE BROOK	COOP	4
HARRISON	COOP	4

2010 95° days

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

WRIGHTSTOWN	COOP	24
SOMERDALE 4 SW	COOP	22
Newark Area	ThreadEx	21
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	21
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	19
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	18
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	18
CANOE BROOK	COOP	18
RINGWOOD	COOP	18
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	18
TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT	WBAN	17
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	17
HARRISON	COOP	16
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	16
PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	16
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	15
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	15
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	15

2010 100° days

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Newark Area	ThreadEx	4
WRIGHTSTOWN	COOP	4
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	4
HARRISON	COOP	4
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	3
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	3
TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT	WBAN	3
CANOE BROOK	COOP	3
RINGWOOD	COOP	3
SOMERDALE 4 SW	COOP	3

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

95° and 100° days were close in 2022 to 2010 in NJ.

2022 95° days

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Newark Area	ThreadEx	20
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	20
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	16
HARRISON	COOP	16
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	16
CANOE BROOK	COOP	14
LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST	COOP	13
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	13
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	12
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	10
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	10
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	10
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	10
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	10
MANASQUAN 1 NW	COOP	10

 

NJ 100° days

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	6
Newark Area	ThreadEx	6
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	5
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	5
CANOE BROOK	COOP	4
HARRISON	COOP	4

2010 95° days

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

WRIGHTSTOWN	COOP	24
SOMERDALE 4 SW	COOP	22
Newark Area	ThreadEx	21
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	21
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	19
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	18
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	18
CANOE BROOK	COOP	18
RINGWOOD	COOP	18
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	18
TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT	WBAN	17
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	17
HARRISON	COOP	16
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	16
PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	16
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	15
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	15
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	15

2010 100° days

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Newark Area	ThreadEx	4
WRIGHTSTOWN	COOP	4
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	4
HARRISON	COOP	4
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	3
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	3
TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT	WBAN	3
CANOE BROOK	COOP	3
RINGWOOD	COOP	3
SOMERDALE 4 SW	COOP	3

that's interesting, 2022 never got the publicity that 2010 did for being very hot, probably because 2010 was hotter over a much larger area.

It's like February 2006, a HECS for a small area, vs January 2016, a HECS over a much larger area.

What were 1993 numbers for Newark, just for reference, for 95 and 100 degree days?

[SACRUS]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that's interesting, 2022 never got the publicity that 2010 did for being very hot, probably because 2010 was hotter over a much larger area.

It's like February 2006, a HECS for a small area, vs January 2016, a HECS over a much larger area.

What were 1993 numbers for Newark, just for reference, for 95 and 100 degree days?

 

90 degree days EWR

 

ear	Rank	Days >= 90 °F
2010	1	54
2022	2	49
1993	2	49
1988	4	43
2021	5	41
2002	5	41
1991	5	41
2016	8	40
1983	8	40
1959	8	40
1994	11	39
1944	11	39
2005	13	37
1987	13	37
2018	15	36
1949	15	36
2015	17	35
1961	18	34
2024	19	33
2012	19	33
1999	19	33
1995	19	33
1966	19	33

[SACRUS]

 

ear	Rank	Days >= 95 °F
1993	1	25
2010	2	21
2022	3	20
1988	3	20
1944	3	20
2021	6	18
2012	7	17
2011	7	17
2002	7	17
1955	7	17
1949	11	16
2005	12	14
1953	12	14
2016	14	13
1999	14	13
1991	14	13
1987	14	13
1994	18	12
1983	18	12
1966	18	12

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

90 degree days EWR

 

ear	Rank	Days >= 90 °F
2010	1	54
2022	2	49
1993	2	49
1988	4	43
2021	5	41
2002	5	41
1991	5	41
2016	8	40
1983	8	40
1959	8	40
1994	11	39
1944	11	39
2005	13	37
1987	13	37
2018	15	36
1949	15	36
2015	17	35
1961	18	34
2024	19	33
2012	19	33
1999	19	33
1995	19	33
1966	19	33

Thanks, so 2010 still has a decent lead in 90 degree days but 2022 has tied 1993 in 90 degree days.  1993 still has a sizeable lead in 100 degree days (9), but I'm not sure what their 95 degree tally was.

There's a big separation after the top 3.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

ear	Rank	Days >= 95 °F
1993	1	25
2010	2	21
2022	3	20
1988	3	20
1944	3	20
2021	6	18
2012	7	17
2011	7	17
2002	7	17
1955	7	17
1949	11	16
2005	12	14
1953	12	14
2016	14	13
1999	14	13
1991	14	13
1987	14	13
1994	18	12
1983	18	12
1966	18	12

wow thanks Tony, so 1993 still has a sizeable lead in 95 and 100 degree days.

So basically you could rank them as such: 1993, 2010 and 2022 as the top three summers at Newark.

 

[SACRUS]

ar	Rank	Days >= 100 °F
1993	1	9
1949	2	8
2022	3	6
1953	3	6
1988	5	5
1966	5	5
2011	7	4
2010	7	4
1955	7	4
1944	7	4
2012	11	3
2006	11	3
2005	11	3
2001	11	3
1999	11	3
1911	11	3
2024	17	2
2021	17	2
2013	17	2
2002	17

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

ar	Rank	Days >= 100 °F
1993	1	9
1949	2	8
2022	3	6
1953	3	6
1988	5	5
1966	5	5
2011	7	4
2010	7	4
1955	7	4
1944	7	4
2012	11	3
2006	11	3
2005	11	3
2001	11	3
1999	11	3
1911	11	3
2024	17	2
2021	17	2
2013	17	2
2002	17

wow this is so much closer than I thought..... 1944 and 1949 putting in a great performance on all standings..... 8 100 degree days in 1949 is absolutely WILD, 1993 just barely edged it out with 9 !!