2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[cleetussnow]

Hold up.  We cancel winter on a 6 month snow map but we toss 5 day snow maps.

Got it.  

[cleetussnow]

On 9/10/2025 at 4:37 PM, FXWX said:

Once again this is wrong that it implies the SST is driving the bus!

Ok the ssts are like footprints.  Something is making the footprints - ssts depicted aren’t derived in a vacuum.  Unless they are and that’s why seasonal models utterly suck.  

[SnowGoose69]

On 9/11/2025 at 10:18 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there can start to be some positive feedback, but it's defintely not the primary catalyst. Agreed.

I think maybe like last year we might have lucked out with the -PDO peaking too early.  Its hard to sustain a -3 or 4 from July-August through an entire winter.  Last year it basically bottomed out in October and then it was -1 during the winter.  Could see the same thing happen again though I'd be wary of it not averaging slightly more negative than last winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think maybe like last year we might have lucked out with the -PDO peaking too early.  Its hard to sustain a -3 or 4 from July-August through an entire winter.  Last year it basically bottomed out in October and then it was -1 during the winter.  Could see the same thing happen again though I'd be wary of it not averaging slightly more negative than last winter.

I think that is a given.

[Snowcrazed71]

So... As we start to see all the " Hype factor " for this upcoming Winter.... A new one just popped up. It's the CFS model and it shows very cold air for December, January, and February for much of the Central and Eastern US. I'm just not sure if that is a reliable model or not ( at least compared to the other Global models ). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So... As we start to see all the " Hype factor " for this upcoming Winter.... A new one just popped up. It's the CFS model and it shows very cold air for December, January, and February for much of the Central and Eastern US. I'm just not sure if that is a reliable model or not ( at least compared to the other Global models ). 

I don't think it's means much in the sense that it will nail the forecast per se, as the CFS is really only useful anout a month out; however, it is very notable because the model is usually warm in the winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

CFS for December:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not that this is right per se, because it probably isn't....but I'm not sure folks appreciate just how cold this is given the 1984-2009 climo base. If I were planning to copy and paste a composite of the past ten winters as some often muse, this would give me pause.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks to be a severe -WPO/EPO.....somewhat +PNA and a modestly -NAO/AO. PNA and especially AO are iffy...

[weathafella]

Looks like the Nina is minoring out.  Also, negative anomalies are no longer east based.  Hard to tell but this appears to be the trend over the past few weeks.  Gun to head I’d hedge normal in temperatures and snow for the winter.  For a lot of sne, that’s going to feel snowy since the past few winters have been paltry snow wise.