2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[cleetussnow]

Hold up.  We cancel winter on a 6 month snow map but we toss 5 day snow maps.

Got it.  

[cleetussnow]

On 9/10/2025 at 4:37 PM, FXWX said:

Once again this is wrong that it implies the SST is driving the bus!

Ok the ssts are like footprints.  Something is making the footprints - ssts depicted aren’t derived in a vacuum.  Unless they are and that’s why seasonal models utterly suck.  

[SnowGoose69]

On 9/11/2025 at 10:18 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there can start to be some positive feedback, but it's defintely not the primary catalyst. Agreed.

I think maybe like last year we might have lucked out with the -PDO peaking too early.  Its hard to sustain a -3 or 4 from July-August through an entire winter.  Last year it basically bottomed out in October and then it was -1 during the winter.  Could see the same thing happen again though I'd be wary of it not averaging slightly more negative than last winter.