Central PA Spring 2025

[Yardstickgozinya]

 It may be nuts for some, but It really is all about the angle in the dangle today.

[jlauderdal]

Enjoy your time in PA! 

Thanks, cloudy and drizzle, deer and turkeys seem happy. Hopefully we tap into a better setup, lack of surface heating isn't helping.

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

EFO tornado confirmed yesterday afternoon down here in Lancaster County near Denver.  About as small as you'll see though, only on the ground for a single minute, with a path width of only 10 yards and a path length of a tenth of a mile.

Oh boy.

My wife and I were at Sam Lewis yesterday afternoon, sitting on a bench. I'm enjoying the view, she's on the 'Book. She tells me that she sees something about a tornado in Lancaster county that had just happened...I immediately start laughing hard and mock her for her insistence on getting "fake news" on the 'Book. I tell her that there was NO way a tornado was anywhere close to Lancaster, the conditions weren't right, there was very little on radar, etc. 

I'm going to have to go home and walk this down now. Great. More ammo for her to get her weather info from the 'Book...

This is "Day In The Life" material but sadly those days are over. 

[canderson]

12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Oh boy.

My wife and I were at Sam Lewis yesterday afternoon, sitting on a bench. I'm enjoying the view, she's on the 'Book. She tells me that she sees something about a tornado in Lancaster county that had just happened...I immediately start laughing hard and mock her for her insistence on getting "fake news" on the 'Book. I tell her that there was NO way a tornado was anywhere close to Lancaster, the conditions weren't right, there was very little on radar, etc. 

I'm going to have to go home and walk this down now. Great. More ammo for her to get her weather info from the 'Book...

This is "Day In The Life" material but sadly those days are over. 

What she doesn’t know wont kill her! 

[Voyager]

There was a tornado in Shoemakersville, Berks County also.

[Yardstickgozinya]

  Once again, I'm not claiming to be anything close to Ace, but I enjoy pretending, lol. To my amateur eye, IAD just needed a little more veering to the north in  the mid to upper levels and a little cooling above 250mb, and IAD would have had some sig hail issues today

. 

Unfortunately, the latest sounding for IAD has lost most of its juju and really narrowed the cape field down to a sliver.  Im assuming the warming above 225mb and those little inversions from about 675mb down to 950mb are a marine layer and to blame  . I realize we are not in Baltimore, but it's the closest observed sounding I know of to practice with. I'm not ruling out any thunderstorms or rain this evening just pointing out something I noticed at IAD. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I also love my mistakes corrected in a civil manner.  Be a dick get a dick has always been my philosophy. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Something definitely doesn't make sense to me.  I snapped the top sounding this morning but I see IAD is at 72℉ now and was actually 66℉ this morning.  I do struggle with utc . Maybe I got my times backwards. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Anyways looking nice down stream .

[Yardstickgozinya]

Idk ? Any help? 

[canderson]

I don’t see much up here forcing-wise to lead to anything near severe.  We may to be to NE for the stuff coming N too. 

[Itstrainingtime]

14 minutes ago, canderson said:

I don’t see much up here forcing-wise to lead to anything near severe.  We may to be to NE for the stuff coming N too. 

36 hours since the last drops of rain here. Western LSV is getting the goods.

[Blizzard of 93]

17 minutes ago, canderson said:

I don’t see much up here forcing-wise to lead to anything near severe.  We may to be to NE for the stuff coming N too. 

It looks like Cashtown & @Bubbler86 are getting the goods this round.

Has anyone heard from @Bubbler86 ?

Hopefully he checks in soon.

[Blizzard of 93]

Also, has anyone heard from @paweather on how his cancer battle is going?

I really hope all is going well.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

36 hours since the last drops of rain here. Western LSV is getting the goods.

How are you feeling sir?

[canderson]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

36 hours since the last drops of rain here. Western LSV is getting the goods.

I got .05” rain earlier today but that was it. It was nearly sunny for a while this afternoon. 

[philliesmd]

18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It looks like Cashtown & @Bubbler86 are getting the goods this round.

Has anyone heard from @Bubbler86 ?

Hopefully he checks in soon.

Not Bubbler, but I have 1.27 so far today in the Boro.

[canderson]

A stray shower maybe in an hour but a huge bust today/tonight here. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

7 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

  Once again, I'm not claiming to be anything close to Ace, but I enjoy pretending, lol. To my amateur eye, IAD just needed a little more veering to the north in  the mid to upper levels and a little cooling above 250mb, and IAD would have had some sig hail issues today

. 

Unfortunately, the latest sounding for IAD has lost most of its juju and really narrowed the cape field down to a sliver.  Im assuming the warming above 225mb and those little inversions from about 675mb down to 950mb are a marine layer and to blame  . I realize we are not in Baltimore, but it's the closest observed sounding I know of to practice with. I'm not ruling out any thunderstorms or rain this evening just pointing out something I noticed at IAD. 

Hence, the disclaimer.  I now realize that the soundings were actually observed at 12:00am and 12:00 pm, which is crazy to me.  I have been adding 5 hours to account for central time zulu, so I thought that the soundings were taken at 5am and 5pm. Now it all makes sense, I think. lol

[TheDreamTraveler]

3 hours ago, canderson said:

A stray shower maybe in an hour but a huge bust today/tonight here. 

The storms curved and angled slightly over. Been pouring heavily here now for a while. I thought we were gonna miss it too earlier

[Yardstickgozinya]

[Yardstickgozinya]

Its still trying to train some up. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I'm still getting bouts of light rain but this is probably the last gasp until we destabilize again later today. 

[Voyager]

Just picked up 0.13 in a quick, heavy shower.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 61 and .03” of rain mainly from a brief afternoon shower yesterday, as most everything missed our area just to the west. I expect more widespread coverage over my area later today into tonight. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Today's NWS forecast discussion , and spc discussion on th

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
509 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Multi-day stretch of wet weather continues into late week
* A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible this
  afternoon across east-central PA with localized downpours
* Eventual breakdown of the stagnant/repeat wet pattern signals
  improving conditions for Mother`s Day Weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Training rain bands continue to track north-south across the
Susquehanna Valley near the occluded frontal zone early this
morning. MRMS data indicates hourly rain rates have leveled off
quite a bit from last night at <0.50 inch/hr. Noticeably cooler
and drier air has arrived in clear slot behind the front with
areas of locally dense fog across the Laurel Highlands and south
central ridges.

The closed upper low responsible for the recent multi-day
stretch of wet weather throughout most of CPA will begin to
unravel and lift to the northeast into New England by 12Z Wed.
Despite its pending departure, it will help to trigger another
round of rain/showers and a few thunderstorms ramping up through
peak heating. Hires guidance focuses isolated to scattered
convection along the occluded front over east central PA this
afternoon and early evening.

Low-level convergence along the front and large-scale ascent
associated with the 500mb low will combine with 500-1,000 J/kg
of MUCAPE, robust deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates to
support a marginal wind damage/hail threat. Although PWs are on
the decline, locally heavy north-south training downpours on low
FFGs will also support the potential for isolated instances of
flooding especially in areas where soils have been substantially
saturated.

Trailing shortwave energy on the backside of the departing
upper low should maintain showers into tonight particularly
over the southern tier of CPA before POPs gradually decrease
into early Wednesday morning.

Highs will be +/- 5 degrees either side of early May climo with
cooler conditions (60-65F maxT) in the western Alleghenies and
milder temps (65-75F) throughout the Susquehanna Valley or
ahead of the occluded front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A brief respite or lull in the frequent rain showers is expected
into midweek as the upper low continues to pull away from the
region. We still can`t rule out a few showers especially across
the northern mtns Wednesday PM - but on the margin it should be
drier vs. recent days. Highs trend a bit warmer on balance with
daytime maxes in the 65-75F range.

The lull in the precip will be short-lived with yet another
upper trough fcst to close off over PA by Thursday night. Rain
showers and a few t-storms are likely Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night with ensemble data placing max POPs across the
southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Temp trends
for Thursday should be flat to down day over day with the most
noticeable change in the northern tier with highs falling back
into the 50s followed by mins in the 35-40F range Thursday
night.

The full discussion is in the link. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Yardstickgozinya]

Normally I wouldn't post these on marginal days like today and yesterday but given the slow and training nature of this system and drought conditions I have decided to.  Keep I'm mind that both yesterday and today have less then a 5%  risk of anyone in CPA seeing severe weatherat there local. 

...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley.

[pawatch]

55 degrees, picked of .53” of rain overnight.

River been coming up slow but steady.basically 2-3’ a day.

Looks like the crest will be tomorrow. Well under flood stage.

[mahantango#1]

Rainfall:

0.32 in

Day

 

1.69 in

Event

 

1.16 in

Week

 

1.81 in

Month

 

8.71 in

Year

[Blizzard of 93]

I picked up another .48 overnight in Marysville.

1.55 total since Sunday am.