2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

The EURO seasonal is showing classic La Niña/-IOD low frequency forcing over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent for OND:

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The EURO seasonal is showing classic La Niña/-IOD low frequency forcing over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent for OND:
 

The IOD has been declining in recent months and has already turned negative. It seems that things are on track for the forecast.

[bluewave]

Yeah, the record SST warmth near the Maritime Continent has been leading to significantly more -IODs over time than we used to get.

 

[mitchnick]

Sst changes in the western Pacific starting to raise the PDO some again.

[snowman19]

Sst changes in the western Pacific starting to raise the PDO some again.

Tropical cyclones passing through the area

[mitchnick]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Tropical cyclones passing through the area

Yeah, that's what's been missing for a while.

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sst changes in the western Pacific starting to raise the PDO some again.

That means the equivalent daily NOAA PDO has risen from ~-4.25 to near -3.

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, GaWx said:

That means the equivalent daily NOAA PDO has risen from ~-4.25 to near -3.

If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth

[FPizz]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth

Ever since Fukushima its been warm, odd.  Just kidding.  

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth

There's no guarantee of that.  That's pure wishcasting on your part. There's a whole lot that goes into ssta.