2025-2026 ENSO

[chubbs]

20 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, maybe time to move on and make a post about the topic of this thread, which ive never seen you post about.  Odd that you choose to respond to every single post on this whole entire board when they say hey, maybe area x isn't warming as fast as say Philly. Not everything is equal.  Not every single post has to be about CC. Its nauseating that people like you, bluewave and tcc have to include it in every post you ever make.  We arent reverting back to 1900 anytime soon, so lets assume we ALL know that and move on. Michsnow is not Chesco

Like I said we all have our own perspective. Agree that Michsnow is not Chesco. I try to keep things factual. sorry that you are bothered. 

Like I said I don't see much evidence for differential winter warming. Happy to consider data showing otherwise.

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, maybe time to move on and make a post about the topic of this thread, which ive never seen you post about.  Odd that you choose to respond to every single post on this whole entire board when they say hey, maybe area x isn't warming as fast as say Philly. Not everything is equal.  Not every single post has to be about CC. Its nauseating that people like you, bluewave and tcc have to include it in every post you ever make.  We arent reverting back to 1900 anytime soon, so lets assume we ALL know that and move on. Michsnow is not Chesco

You seem to have a very selective memory when it comes to posts and discussions in these various threads. What usually happens is that I discuss a forecast and pattern and add perspective to my post. I discuss how the individual forecast period or pattern relates to the greater pattern on the whole. Including weather history in the post adds an extra dimension which helps to explain and bring the pattern to life for the reader.

But you and some other posters will frequently respond with a post like your local area is different and it isn’t warming like the other areas are. Then I dig into the weather history for your local area and show that the pattern and trend is pretty much the same as other areas are. It’s you and other posters trying to claim that you live in an area which somehow seems to be defying the rest of the world’s trends or that it’s all just UHI.  If you didn’t try to claim that your area is somehow different from the other areas that I am discussing, then these threads wouldn’t keep going off topic. Since local weather and climate patterns are driven by broader global ones.

It isn’t fair that you are trying to shut down a discussion that stems from a comment that you made. Look, I get it that some people don’t enjoy the fact that the earth is warming. So it’s a natural defense mechanism to not acknowledge it. But this narrow perspective is incomplete and leads to less reliable forecasts based on climate states and patterns which no longer exist.

The other issue is that some posters view weather and climate through a political prism. This inevitably leads to a distorted perspective since a political belief is separate from issues dealing with the natural world like weather and climate. You will notice that I never bring up politics or policy perspectives. This is due to the fact that I am not really a political person. So you have to understand that recognizing the fact that the world is warming and it’s affecting our sensible weather on many levels doesn’t mean that I am advocating for any specific policies or programs. Since it’s up to each individual what types of policies they they want which is outside the scope of these threads. 

[snowman19]

I guess 1916-17 is his only one that makes sense. It was a -PNA Winter though, way below average in the West and Upper Midwest, average in the SE and Mid-Atlantic (vs 1900-2000 averages). 

Lol with the lone exception of 1916-17 those were +PDO winters. If he’s trying to argue that the PDO is somehow going to magically flip positive by winter, I wish him lots of luck….i think he’s going to need it

[snowman19]

We have only had one October really amplified MJO 5-6 during each multiyear La Niña going back to 2010. October 2024…+2.76…October 2020…+2.81….October 2017…+3.35….October 2010….+2.88.
The other La Niña years surrounding these in each group had a weaker October MJO in 5-6 like in 2022, 2021, 2016, and 2011. So the more amplified October years featured La Niña +PNA mismatches.
With the exception of last year, these were very snowy winters. But the WPAC pattern and Pacific Jet never relaxed last winter like all the previous mismatch winters did. This is what I was pointing out last year why I mentioned early on that there were competing influences which didn’t exist during the other winters. So not to expect the same type of outcome.  
So this would be a first time occurrence if the MJO 5 peaked again this October in the +2.76 to +3.35 range. Seems like it’s some type of fall forcing event which affects the winter PNA during La Ninas. 
It’s why my guess a few months back that this 25-26 winter will be warmer than last winter was with the PNA averaging less positive than last winter did. But since the snowfall was so low last winter, it wouldn’t take much for one decent snow event to surpass last seasons snowfall totals from around Philly to Boston.
Plus it’s possible that we could get a least one winter month with a decent +PNA like we saw in January 2022 even though the PNA was strongly negative in December tilting the whole winter -PNA. That was largely driven by the MJO 8. January 2022 was the last winter month around NYC which was both cold and snowy especially Long Island.
We have also seen very impressive 500 ridges in Canada since the 2023-2024 El Niño generally boosting the +PNA. So we’ll have to wait for the October verification this year to know if it will be like  past multiyear La Ninas following the mismatch winters like we had in 2024-2025. Always have to leave open the possibility of a first time occurrence with back to back mismatch events. But this hasn’t happened yet since 2010.

While the MJO has definitely been active in phases 5-6-7 so far, it hasn’t been very strong/amplified like last summer was…..

[snowman19]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

[mention=17]ORH_wxman[/mention]Was actually metioning the other day how this year kind of resembles some of the older cool ENSO events in that there is more cooler water near the west coast than in the recent ones.

It definitely looks like a more “traditional” -PDO in the NE PAC with the cold horseshoe from the GOA down the west coast of NA. What’s also very striking is how severely negative the PMM has become

[donsutherland1]

50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Lol with the lone exception of 1916-17 those were +PDO winters. If he’s trying to argue that the PDO is somehow going to magically flip positive by winter, I wish him lots of luck….i think he’s going to need it

It’s tough to see the PDO- completely breaking down and switching to a PDO+ for winter. Did he present evidence to support his proposed evolution? 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

It’s tough to see the PDO- completely breaking down and switching to a PDO+ for winter. Did he present evidence to support his proposed evolution? 

Of all those years listed, 2013-14 is probably the only one that's reasonable, as it really wasn't a +PDO winter. It generally moved toward a positive direction (neutral), but it was mostly a -PDO winter. In fact, I think it's a better analog than 1916-17 (it's hard to ignore the fact that global temps are ~2C warmer now than in 1916-17).

I'm not saying that the PDO will make it all the way back to neutral by the time the winter is over (the big difference between now and 2013 is that the PDO is at -3 to -4 now, whereas the PDO was around -1.5 in the summer of 2013), but a -2 PDO at the start of winter and a -1 at the end is doable.

But it's all going to depend on the WPAC jet. This winter has a high variance of outcomes. I can see a 2013-14 type winter happening, but by the same token, I could just as easily see a 2011-12 type winter (say the -PDO stays deeply negative, a la nina, and the WPAC staying the same).

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Of all those years listed, 2013-14 is probably the only one that's reasonable, as it really wasn't a +PDO winter. It generally moved toward a positive direction (neutral), but it was mostly a -PDO winter. In fact, I think it's a better analog than 1916-17 (it's hard to ignore the fact that global temps are ~2C warmer now than in 1916-17).

I'm not saying that the PDO will make it all the way back to neutral by the time the winter is over (the big difference between now and 2013 is that the PDO is at -3 to -4 now, whereas the PDO was around -1.5 in the summer of 2013), but a -2 PDO at the start of winter and a -1 at the end is doable.

But it's all going to depend on the WPAC jet. This winter has a high variance of outcomes. I can see a 2013-14 type winter happening, but by the same token, I could just as easily see a 2011-12 type winter (say the -PDO stays deeply negative, a la nina, and the WPAC staying the same).

I agree that 2013-14 is probably at the cold/snowy side of the envelope for what could lie ahead. I hope something close to it plays out rather than something like 2011-12. Like you, I suspect that the PDO- will relax somewhat toward winter, but the redevelopment of a La Niña will likely limit how much it fades. RONI is already in La Niña territory.  The cool SSTAs off southern California/Baja California could also impede the subtropical jet leading to a drier winter in the Southwest and reduced opportunity for Miller A storms in the East, if they persist. Miller Bs typically favor New England with a sharp drop in seasonal snowfall somewhere in the Middle Atlantic, greatest risk Baltimore and southward, but sometimes New York and southward. NYC is moving closer to setting a record for its longest drought without a 4" or above daily snowfall.

There could still be surprises. Last winter's historic snowstorm that affected Houston to Pensacola (historic New Orleans eastward) was one extreme example. 

[snowman19]

27 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Of all those years listed, 2013-14 is probably the only one that's reasonable, as it really wasn't a +PDO winter. It generally moved toward a positive direction (neutral), but it was mostly a -PDO winter. In fact, I think it's a better analog than 1916-17 (it's hard to ignore the fact that global temps are ~2C warmer now than in 1916-17).
I'm not saying that the PDO will make it all the way back to neutral by the time the winter is over (the big difference between now and 2013 is that the PDO is at -3 to -4 now, whereas the PDO was around -1.5 in the summer of 2013), but a -2 PDO at the start of winter and a -1 at the end is doable.
But it's all going to depend on the WPAC jet. This winter has a high variance of outcomes. I can see a 2013-14 type winter happening, but by the same token, I could just as easily see a 2011-12 type winter (say the -PDO stays deeply negative, a la nina, and the WPAC staying the same).

13-14 was a “Victoria mode” SSTA pattern in the PAC. A Victoria mode resembles a +PDO in the SST signature way more than it does a -PDO. Even though 13-14 was technically a weak -PDO, the SST distribution resembled way more of a +PDO than it did a -PDO. In fact, if you looked at the SST maps from that winter you would think the PDO was positive

@donsutherland1 @bluewave

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

 

Beat ya for once lol