2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

So, with the lag, the -NAO/-AO should start around the Equinox (3/20)?

Higher than average probability is yes. March SSWs haven't been leading to -NAO as much the last few Winters so we'll see

[GaWx]

 I’m wondering if the projected early March SSWE could end up as a SFW, a subject @snowman19knows as much about as just about any regular here. Below is yesterday’s EW, which suggests it will reverse March 3-5. It also suggests there’s only a very low probability for this to end up as a SFW as there’s no more than 1-3% showing that:

 So based on that, there’s no reason as of now to expect this to be an SFW. However, what if the improbable event were to actually happen? It would be at or near a new record earliest SFW, which is currently March 5 (of 2016). Last year, which isn’t on this SFW table, was close with March 9-10, the 2nd earliest:

 

@snowman19any opinion?

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still plenty of time for snow for NYC on north especially at night and if there is sufficient cold.

Assuming there actually is a -AO/-NAO flip around 3/20 (Equinox).  I wouldn’t say there’s still plenty of time for NYC metro area snowstorms at that point. Have they happened 3/20 and beyond? Yes. Would I gamble that there’s going to be an NYC snowstorm pattern setting up 3/20 - early April? Not so much. After 3/15, south of New England, it’s very late for that. Obviously not impossible and has happened before with anomalous, freak snowstorms, but yea…..