2025-2026 ENSO

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think part of it is that back in the 2000s and 2010s, most KU setups delivered (March 2018 is a great example), and now we're seeing some flies in the ointment. sure, some of those failure modes are popping up more and more because of CC, but I think we got a bit spoiled, so now a block pops up and everyone expects a KU (I am personally guilty of this and am trying to remove this bias)

mid-Feb easily could have occurred, the ULL just became a bit sloppy and the system became more disorganized... it still delivered historic snow to VA beach, and there was also a once in a lifetime Gulf Coast storm

it's a late 80s pattern, we saw winters like this in 1988-89 and 1989-90 too.

February 1989 and December 1989 being cases in point, historic snowfalls well to our south and along the coastal southeast and midatlantic.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the system lacking cohesiveness was do at least in part of the crap PNA ridge. I agree with you, though....CC definitely isn't making it any easier, but its not the only reason.

yeah, that did not help. what was interesting was I remember the PNA ridge trending "better" as the event moved up, but the ULL deteriorated to the point that it didn't matter. just kinda became messy because of weird ULL stuff. they're finicky, always have been

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, that did not help. what was interesting was I remember the PNA ridge trending "better" as the event moved up, but the ULL deteriorated to the point that it didn't matter. just kinda became messy because of weird ULL stuff. they're finicky, always have been

Maybe it edged a bit east, but it never looked great.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe it edged a bit east, but it never looked great.

agreed, that was always the main issue with that setup and made it a lot more precarious. if it had a true +PNA, easy KU. one could attribute that to CC, but we were never going to see perfect +PNAs with every setup. I think a lot of it is regression to the mean

i agree with you that if this is still happening in a decade, it's time to have a serious convo

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

agreed, that was always the main issue with that setup and made it a lot more precarious. if it had a true +PNA, easy KU. one could attribute that to CC, but we were never going to see perfect +PNAs with every setup. I think a lot of it is regression to the mean

i agree with you that if this is still happening in a decade, it's time to have a serious convo

It's been time for about 7 years   ... just imho -

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

agreed, that was always the main issue with that setup and made it a lot more precarious. if it had a true +PNA, easy KU. one could attribute that to CC, but we were never going to see perfect +PNAs with every setup. I think a lot of it is regression to the mean

i agree with you that if this is still happening in a decade, it's time to have a serious convo

Yes, precisely. CC is undoubtedly playing a role, but I am going to maintain that simple regression is playing a larger one...at least for the next severals years or so. My mean seasonal snowfall since 2014-2015 just slipped below average after this past season, despite 7 consecutive duds....so I am defitely more open to a larger CC attribution if this should continue into next decade.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's been time for about 7 years   ... just imho -

We'll see. Maybe you're right, but this is still mostly regression in my mind. 7 years aso I had just concluded my second calendar month of over 60" of snowfall within a 3 year window.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just to be clear....I am waiting on deciding whether or not CC is already having a larger impact on snowfall than simple regression throughout the NE coast, NOT whether or not CC is taking place....or whether or not CC is already impacting snowfall in the coastal mid atl.

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, that did not help. what was interesting was I remember the PNA ridge trending "better" as the event moved up, but the ULL deteriorated to the point that it didn't matter. just kinda became messy because of weird ULL stuff. they're finicky, always have been

I hate upper level lows, first thing I would do with climate modification is prevent them from ever being able to form or get stuck.

[LibertyBell]

54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, that did not help. what was interesting was I remember the PNA ridge trending "better" as the event moved up, but the ULL deteriorated to the point that it didn't matter. just kinda became messy because of weird ULL stuff. they're finicky, always have been

these weird stuck ULL are also responsible for our rainy spring, I'm completely done with them.

[brooklynwx99]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's been time for about 7 years   ... just imho -

CC is absolutely a factor, that is not a debate. snowfall is just so prone to variance and we came off of such a torrid stretch that I want to give it another 10 year span to make sure that this isn't just regression to the mean. it'll probably be 75% bust, 25% boom seasons from here on out with very little in the way of true average

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

CC is absolutely a factor, that is not a debate. snowfall is just so prone to variance and we came off of such a torrid stretch that I want to give it another 10 year span to make sure that this isn't just regression to the mean. it'll probably be 75% bust, 25% boom seasons from here on out with very little in the way of true average

whats more important as far as CC is concerned are rising dew points, warmer mins and stuck patterns that repeat over and over again.

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think part of it is that back in the 2000s and 2010s, most KU setups delivered (March 2018 is a great example), and now we're seeing some flies in the ointment. sure, some of those failure modes are popping up more and more because of CC, but I think we got a bit spoiled, so now a block pops up and everyone expects a KU (I am personally guilty of this and am trying to remove this bias)

mid-Feb easily could have occurred, the ULL just became a bit sloppy and the system became more disorganized... it still delivered historic snow to VA beach, and there was also a once in a lifetime Gulf Coast storm

Regardless of enso, cc, or anything else, winters always ebb and flow. They always have and they always will. Many factors can absolutely influence, but they aren't a slam dunk for anything. We dont get noreasters in the southern Great Lakes and the 2000s saw above average snowfall at Detroit while the 2010s were the snowiest decade on record. It was just a great period for many. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the system lacking cohesiveness was do at least in part of the crap PNA ridge. I agree with you, though....CC definitely isn't making it any easier, but its not the only reason.

But it’s been a challenge to sustain a quality +PNA ridge with the overpowering Pacific Jet.

In one scenario a piece of Pacific energy digs too much out West and pumps the Southeast Ridge causing a Great Lakes cutter storm track.

The next repeating pattern has been the hugger storm track along I-78 to I-84 with too much energy out west pumping the Southeast Ridge just enough for a quick change from snow to rain.

The 3rd common storm track has been too much energy coming into the Western US acting as a kicker trough suppressing lows to the south. 

So this fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has been working against Benchmark storm tracks even with blocking patterns which used to produce KU events when we had daily -5 AO readings in the past Februaries. 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But it’s been a challenge to sustain a quality +PNA ridge with the overpowering Pacific Jet.

In one scenario a piece of Pacific energy digs too much out West and pumps the Southeast Ridge causing a Great Lakes cutter storm track.

The next repeating pattern has been the hugger storm track along I-78 to I-84 with too much energy out west pumping the Southeast Ridge just enough for a quick change from snow to rain.

The 3rd common storm track has been too much energy coming into the Western US acting as a kicker trough suppressing lows to the south. 

So this fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has been working against Benchmark storm tracks even with blocking patterns which used to produce KU events when we had daily -5 AO readings in the past Februaries. 

But both of these remind me of the 80s and early 90s when we had a lot of hugger and suppressed tracks too.

But we at least got to 20 inches of snowfall in most years (especially during the early and middle 80s) because of moderate 3-5 inch events.

It was very windy back then too-- we used to have snow to rain followed by wind chill warnings and temperatures near 0 and wind chills down to -60 (I know they calculated it differently back then.) It was always either cold, windy and dry or wet and warm/mild lol.

 

 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But both of these remind me of the 80s and early 90s when we had a lot of hugger and suppressed tracks too.

But we at least got to 20 inches of snowfall in most years (especially during the early and middle 80s) because of moderate 3-5 inch events.

It was very windy back then too-- we used to have snow to rain followed by wind chill warnings and temperatures near 0 and wind chills down to -60 (I know they calculated it differently back then.) It was always either cold, windy and dry or wet and warm/mild lol.

 

 

It was much colder back in those days so the hugger tracks were often 3-6” instead of the 1-3” which have become the norm since 2019. There were also clippers with 3-6” and 4-8” snows which were common which dropped south of NYC. These days the clippers have become cutters due to the stronger Southeast Ridge pushing the storm track further north. Plus there were non KU Benchmark tracks at times with similar amounts. So there was a wider variety of ways to get near 20” or more since the storm tracks were much colder. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was much colder back in those days so the hugger tracks were often 3-6” instead of the 1-3” which have become the norm since 2019. There were also clippers with 3-6” and 4-8” snows which were common which dropped south of NYC. These days the clippers have become cutters due to the stronger Southeast Ridge pushing the storm track further north. Plus there were non KU Benchmark tracks at times with similar amounts. So there was a wider variety of ways to get near 20” or more since the storm tracks were much colder. 

I was wondering where the clippers and bowling ball storms disappeared to, we used to get 2-4 and 3-5 inch snowstorms multiple times a year and those are very rare now.

I remember the last time we got storms like that was during the 03-04 and 04-05 winters.

We even got super clippers that redeveloped offshore (January 2005).

Bowling ball systems in 1993-94 starting in December.

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I was wondering where the clippers and bowling ball storms disappeared to, we used to get 2-4 and 3-5 inch snowstorms multiple times a year and those are very rare now.

I remember the last time we got storms like that was during the 03-04 and 04-05 winters.

We even got super clippers that redeveloped offshore (January 2005).

Bowling ball systems in 1993-94 starting in December.

We shifted to an all or nothing snowfall pattern since the 1990s with all the average to above average snowfall seasons featuring KU Benchmark storm tracks.

During the 1960s to early 1990s it was cold enough to get closer to average snowfall with a bunch of smaller to moderate events and no KUs. Moderate snowfall seasons closer to average were the norm of that colder 30 year period. Very few well below or well above average snowfall seasons.

So having to rely exclusively on KU events over the last 30 years has lead to more well below normal seasons since 2018-2019 when the Pacific Jet has been so overpowering preventing benchmark dominant storm tracks. Having a 50-100 year concentration of benchmark tracks from 2010 to 2018 with so many record seasons masked this longer term trend since the 1990s. Once this anomalous pattern shifted, we were left with the well below normal background snowfall pattern with the exception of 20-21 around NYC and January 22 from Long Island into Eastern New England. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The mid-February period was nothing resembling a +NAO Arctic blocking pattern. There was a -5SD block over the pole which extended all the way to Iceland which is textbook -AO and -NAO. This is why the long range guidance was so snowy. The raw NAO index has been skewed by the much stronger EA patterns in recent years. So the pressures to the south haven’t been as low. 

There was a -300dm 500mb low at 45-50 N in the North Atlantic. The AO was all the way over the North Pole. The closer anomaly usually wins.. in this case a strong low pressure at 45-50N correlates with slightly above average temps across the Northeast coast. I was on this board 7+ days out saying the snowstorm wouldn't happen because of a "south-based +NAO".