2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Remarkably similar 2 month period with some probably pretty important differences.

One important difference is the AAM. Last year at this time it was in full on El Nino (positive). This year, it is and has been very strongly negative 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

One important difference is the AAM. Last year at this time it was in full on El Nino (positive). This year, it is and has been very strongly negative 

Another important difference is the character of La Nina....hard pressed to find many weak/east based Nina events that occured during -QBO that didn't feature some blocking. Although 2005-2006 was pretty mild mid season, it was wintry in December and featured big blocking in March.

[chris21]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

One important difference is the AAM. Last year at this time it was in full on El Nino (positive). This year, it is and has been very strongly negative 

Could lead to more blocking.

[snowman19]

Another important difference is the character of La Nina....hard pressed to find many weak/east based Nina events that occured during -QBO that didn't feature some blocking. Although 2005-2006 was pretty mild mid season, it was wintry in December and featured big blocking in March.

It would not call this a pure east-based La Niña. Not CP/Modoki, but this does not look like a 2017 evolution, which was a true east-based event

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It would not call this a pure east-based La Niña. Not CP/Modoki, but this does not look like a 2017 evolution, which was a true east-based event

The forecast winter EMI from JAMSTEC is very 2018 like...along with 1995 and 2021.

The newest El Niño Modoki Index (EMI) guidance from JAMSTEC has also remained fairly consisted in it's depiction of an EMI value of around -.20 to -.30 during the boreal winter season.

 

 

This range is similar to the EMI analogs of 1995-1996, 2017-2018 and 2021-2022, which is supported by the similarity in both the placement (near 140 longitude) and the intensity of the respective subsurface cold pool analogs relative to 2025.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm in no way implying a 1995 repeat...I understand how different the western PAC is and how much we have warmed...I get it. Just saying ENSO in a vacuum is a decent match.