2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The real heart to the drought is over northern New England....couple that with a modest +NAO and maybe it’s finally my turn.

You are right about the smax. High sunspots and especially high geomag argue for +NAO as does the cold North Atlantic 

[brooklynwx99]

I can assure you, when we do get a good winter from NYC south, I doubt anyone will have actually forecasted it beforehand. including myself

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You are right about the smax. High sunspots and especially high geomag argue for +NAO as does the cold North Atlantic 

Yea, well don't forget the E QBO. This shouldn't be a super nova +NAO that is devoid of blocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

IRI plume def. more aggressive with La Nina. I think they have finally caught onto to an event that will will fall just shy of official designation. I called -0.5 to -0.7 ONI peak back in July and it looks like dynamical guidance now peaks at -0.71, statistical -0.53 and mean of all guidance -0.61.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/07/la-neutral-enso-conditions-will.html

Will probably go onto to overcorrect a bit next month, too before tickling back later in the fall. Subsurface is quite stout, but I don't think we will have the trade clout to surface as much of that in region 3.4 as we did in 3 and 1.2.