2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

So, with the lag, the -NAO/-AO should start around the Equinox (3/20)?

Higher than average probability is yes. March SSWs haven't been leading to -NAO as much the last few Winters so we'll see

[GaWx]

 I’m wondering if the projected early March SSWE could end up as a SFW, a subject @snowman19knows as much about as just about any regular here. Below is yesterday’s EW, which suggests it will reverse March 3-5. It also suggests there’s only a very low probability for this to end up as a SFW as there’s no more than 1-3% showing that:

 So based on that, there’s no reason as of now to expect this to be an SFW. However, what if the improbable event were to actually happen? It would be at or near a new record earliest SFW, which is currently March 5 (of 2016). Last year, which isn’t on this SFW table, was close with March 9-10, the 2nd earliest:

 

@snowman19any opinion?

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still plenty of time for snow for NYC on north especially at night and if there is sufficient cold.

Assuming there actually is a -AO/-NAO flip around 3/20 (Equinox), I wouldn’t say there’s still plenty of time for NYC metro area snowstorms at that point. Have they happened 3/20 and beyond? Yes. Would I gamble that there’s going to be a NYC snowstorm pattern setting up 3/20 - early April? Not so much. After 3/15, south of New England, it’s very late for that. Obviously not impossible and has happened before with anomalous, freak snowstorms, but yea…..

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m wondering if the projected early March SSWE could end up as a SFW, a subject @snowman19knows as much about as just about any regular here. Below is yesterday’s EW, which suggests it will reverse March 3-5. It also suggests there’s only a very low probability for this to end up as a SFW as there’s no more than 1-3% showing that:

 So based on that, there’s no reason as of now to expect this to be an SFW. However, what if the improbable event were to actually happen? It would be at or near a new record earliest SFW, which is currently March 5 (of 2016). Last year, which isn’t on this SFW table, was close with March 9-10, the 2nd earliest:

 

@snowman19any opinion?

I guess it could qualify as a very early final warming since it’s happening in March, but I would defer to @40/70 Benchmark or @so_whats_happening to give a better opinion on that. They are very good with the stratospheric stuff

[GaWx]

Today’s isn’t quite as aggressive as yesterday’s 100% of all members reversing and a mean dip to -11 although it’s still more aggressive than all the other runs with ~97% reversing and the mean dipping to -5:

 

[MJO812]

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Today’s isn’t quite as aggressive as yesterday’s 100% of all members reversing and a mean dip to -11 although it’s still more aggressive than all the other runs with ~97% reversing and the mean dipping to -5:

 

It remains weaker longer than previous runs however.

[MJO812]

On 11/23/2025 at 3:38 PM, anthonymm said:

100%. It is so bizarre to see like none of the conus with snow cover this late into November. Can't be a good sign. Even if the cold shot early dec bleeds east like the weenies think it'll quickly moderate anyway from the lack of snowcover. Not gonna cancel winter on Nov 23 but i wouldn't be surprised if this is another stinker. 

 

On 11/23/2025 at 3:56 PM, anthonymm said:

I think so too man. We're not going back. I can see NYC settling on a 15ish inch mean for good now, absent a volcanic eruption like bluewave said.

I guess we dont need a volcanic eruption for a great winter.

BTW where have you been ?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I guess it could qualify as a very early final warming since it’s happening in March, but I would defer to @40/70 Benchmark or @so_whats_happening to give a better opinion on that. They are very good with the stratospheric stuff

I agree on wondering...said that myself at one point, but it's prrrrooobably early enough to not be a final warming.

[EastonSN+]

GEFS not backing down on the MJO progression.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

A volcanic eruption is not necessary for a great winter. However, one certainly helps. Just look at 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96, following Pinatubo. In fact, they are still 3 of the Top 4 snowiest winters in State College, PA:

1    1993-1994    109.3    0
2    1995-1996    99.0    0
3    1977-1978    98.2    0
4    1992-1993    92.5    0

However, we have had great stretches of winters (2002-03 to 2004-05, 2008-09 to 2010-11, and 2013-14 and 2014-15) even without a volcanic eruption. If we can have another great winter in 2026-27, we could add another great stretch of winters.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS not backing down on the MJO progression.

Thanks. The EPS and JMA (see images below) continue to also be consistent with their respective prior runs having it progress more quickly and at low amplitude inside circle vs the GEFS: these get to phase 7-8 by the 6th-7th when GEFS is just entering phase 6. GEFS as you’ve pointed out tends to be more accurate in this sector with its progression but often with too much amplitude when the others are weaker like in the current case. So, I’ll be looking for the actual amplitude to verify weaker than GEFS and stronger than EPS/JMA perhaps close to the circle. I’ll be also looking for the progression to be a little faster than GEFS but slower than EPS.

 

[snowman19]

@donsutherland1  No surprisingly, Joe Bastardi is in full on “Strat warm” hype mode, calling for a huge return to deep winter from 3/15 until early April…calling for arctic cold and snowstorms up the east coast….

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1  No surprisingly, Joe Bastardi is in full on “Strat warm” hype mode, calling for a huge return to deep winter from 3/15 until early April…calling for arctic cold and snowstorms up the east coast….

As always. He always calls for a wild end to winter.

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1  No surprisingly, Joe Bastardi is in full on “Strat warm” hype mode, calling for a huge return to deep winter from 3/15 until early April…calling for arctic cold and snowstorms up the east coast….

You hyped his post way more than he did, shocking, but you are obsessed with him and have been for years.  

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

As always. He always calls for a wild end to winter.

On repeat. Every year without fail, like clockwork. Cut and pasted. You can set your watch to it

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

As always. He always calls for a wild end to winter.

He does ? Its quite possible hes right with the progression of the PV especially the cold .  This warmup isnt going to last all month.

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, FPizz said:

You hyped his post way more than he did, shocking, but you are obsessed with him and have been for years.  

He always does this. I checked JBs account and I dont see him hyping anything. Just talking about what might happen. 

[snowman19]

There are big questions right now as to whether this stratospheric warming event next month even downwells and couples with the troposphere
 

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He does ? Its quite possible hes right with the progression of the PV especially the cold .  This warmup isnt going to last all month.

I don't disagree that there will be a cooldown following the burst of warmth after the first week in March. The cooldown doesn't necessarily mean a return to Arctic air masses or the threat of big snowstorms. A lot more evidence is needed before one builds a case for a 1956- or 2018-style close to winter.

His calls almost always concern stratospheric warming events, favorable MJO phases, and/or blocking etc., to make a case that winter will continue to around Easter. The issue with making essentially the same call is that that when things verify, verification may simply have been a more matter of his making the same call year after year than insight into some unique factors. The 10 mb maps may be illustrating nothing more than a precursor to a final warming event. Even if the event materializes and propagates, the lag would bring one to late March or early April before its impacts would be felt. 

As X isn't really a searchable, I can't pull up his posts from spring 2025. But I found this in the banter thread related to his spring 2024 call:

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z Euro basically has a week of straight 70s in DC March 6-12. 2012 anyone? 

[GaWx]

Todays EW look pretty awful if you’d prefer BN in the E US. And I’m not talking about the WxBell crappy always too cold maps. I’m talking about the ECMWF’s own much more trustworthy maps. They’re not pretty unless you want mild or even borderline torching. Also, the 10 mb is for the 2nd day not dipping as much: only dips to -2 (though with still a large majority reversing) vs -5 (with almost all reversing) yesterday and -11 (with 100% reversing) two days ago. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Crazy how it always swings back from cold to something extreme on the warm side.