2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

 The Euro Weeklies (extended EPS) have been trending away from the mid-Feb 10 mb wind reversal:

 Run from just 4 days ago (1/31/26) was strongly predicting it with most members reversing sometime within 2/12-18 with lowest mean ~0:

 

Today (2/4/26): Only 5 of 100 members reversing during 2/12-18 with lowest mean during then down only to ~+11:

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The Euro Weeklies (extended EPS) have been trending away from the mid-Feb 10 mb wind reversal:

 Run from just 4 days ago (1/31/26) was strongly predicting it with most members reversing sometime within 2/12-18 with lowest mean ~0:

 

Today (2/4/26): Only 5 of 100 members reversing during 2/12-18 with lowest mean during then down only to ~+11:

The wind reversal prospects are dropping off quickly. I’m starting to think there actually may not end up not being a major SSWE and an SPV split like @so_whats_happening has been musing….

[LakePaste25]

I do think an ENSO Feb mismatch in the NE is plausible when it comes to the surface temps vs. H5. Nina-like aloft at 500mb, but Nino-like below normal surface temps.