Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Does the pattern usually persist in Feb-March? Top 20 analogs Following Feb 500mb Following Feb Air Temp Following March Air Temp The pattern seems to take a break to +TNH in Feb, then returns in March. It's interesting that models have this N. Pacific High pressure building, although they are south of the normal +TNH position right now. Interestingly, the same Dec-Jan pattern actually holds somewhat through the whole following April - August 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I misunderstood, thinking the assertion is volcano is needed for any kind of cold anomoly winter. I feel very fortunate to live in the Great Lakes because our type of climate makes a complete winterless winter impossible. Warmer winters can see some real dynamic snowstorms ala 2022-23. A winter like the present one, 2025-26, is what I would call a classic textbook example of a harsh winter. Below avg temps, above avg snowfall and above avg snowcover. No standout storms but solid deep winter since late November with just 2 brief breaks. Today is the 21st day in a row snow has fallen. I dont ever really ever expect another 2013-14. Took this Pic this evening when dropping something off at the library. The beauty of living the Great Lakes is that even having the warmest winter on record in 23-24, Marquette was able to get 126.4” of snowfall. Now I realize that is a very low snowfall outcome for the area. But it’s still way ahead of the snowiest seasons in my area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Does the pattern usually persist in Feb-March? Top 20 analogs Following Feb 500mb Following Feb Air Temp Following March Air Temp The pattern seems to take a break to +TNH in Feb, then returns in March. It's interesting that models have this N. Pacific High pressure building, although they are south of the normal +TNH position right now. Interestingly, the same Dec-Jan pattern actually holds somewhat through the whole following April - August Same page. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 9 hours ago, raindancewx said: Outside of the RONI which is essentially a global warming signal in the Tropics, the winter behaviorally is more like a cold neutral with a -PDO. SSTs, SOI, subsurface and actual surface conditions are Neutral. You have high subtropical jet energy, less subtropical ridging, different MJO progression, a warm subsurface all winter compared to Nina conditions. January wasn't really that different late month from 2014. It was actually much colder in the past two weeks if anything, which is why I tried not to moderate it too much. I'm not like the Ray guy who had the MIdwest +5 or whatever for January. I used 2014 because I thought it would be really fucking cold in January Hey, at least you can finally rest easy knowing that I actually do not plagiarize your work, right? Fair critique in a vacuum, but I have my doubts whether it was well intended judging from both your tone and history on here. As someone who also has a great deal of experience making seasonal forecasts, I'm sure you understand that it can be tough to nail the timing and precise placement of the anomalies in a composite map. This was largely due to three factors: 1) The -NAO during the latter half of January was unexpected, and it caused the cold to focus east of where I had it. I touched on this in my write up. 2) I have not addressed these last two as of yet because I was saving it for the post season analysis...but I went more conservative than my forecast narrative would imply due to an overcompensation to account for CC. Two things were clear to anyone that took the time to actually read my work. I was expecting a very cold +TNH pattern to ensue after mid January, and I used 1951-2010 climo maps to forecast 1991-2020 anomalies. I'm testing some things out to try to better account for CC, but I think it's abundantly clear that I had a very firm grasp on the pattern this season. 3) I included the 2002 and 2006 analogs to reflect the mid month Pacific Trough regime that would serve as the precursor pattern to the subsequent +TNH, but that was clearly a mistake that influenced the forecast composite too heavily, despite having matched that pattern very well. I'm not sure why you are so insecure despite possessing such a wealth of knowledge with regard to long range forecasting. I'm sure your failed business venture concerning gambling on the weather didn't help, buy my advice is to try to remain mindful of the perils of making others feel small as opposed to focusing more on how to make yourself feel tall. Better luck in your future endeavors- 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I know it's the CFS however after a consolidation the PV takes the hit and the result below. Hopefully this happens a week sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 Educational mistake. Here is my composite without the two Pacific trough analog seasons. Leaving 2014 out was also a decision influenced by CC bc it was so cold...it's clear I have to reign that back a bit after neglecting it for many years. I don't have all of the answers to the test.....always learning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 Definitely does down as a weak La Nina in my book....meager, sure....but MEI was well withing La Nina territory and there wasn't much of a STJ presence in the US. I guess 1995-1996 must have been an El Nino, right? MJO still avoided phase 8 for the most part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hey, at least you can finally rest easy knowing that I actually do not plagiarize your work, right? Fair critique in a vacuum, but I have my doubts whether it was well intended judging from both your tone and history on here. As someone who also has a great deal of experience making seasonal forecasts, I'm sure you understand that it can be tough to nail the timing and precise placement of the anomalies in a composite map. This was largely due to three factors: 1) The -NAO during the latter half of January was unexpected, and it caused the cold to focus east of where I had it. I touched on this in my write up. 2) I have not addressed these last two as of yet because I was saving it for the post season analysis...but I went more conservative than my forecast narrative would imply due to an overcompensation to account for CC. Two things were clear to anyone that took the time to actually read my work. I was expecting a very cold +TNH pattern to ensue after mid January, and I used 1951-2010 climo maps to forecast 1991-2020 anomalies. I'm testing some things out to try to better account for CC, but I think it's abundantly clear that I had a very firm grasp on the pattern this season. 3) I included the 2002 and 2006 analogs to reflect the mid month Pacific Trough regime that would serve as the precursor pattern to the subsequent +TNH, but that was clearly a mistake that influenced the forecast composite too heavily, despite having matched that pattern very well. I'm not sure why you are so insecure despite possessing such a wealth of knowledge with regard to long range forecasting. I'm sure your failed business venture concerning gambling on the weather didn't help, buy my advice is to try to remain mindful of the perils of making others feel small as opposed to focusing more on how to make yourself feel tall. Better luck in your future endeavors- Ray, Don't let the unnecessary jab affect you. Your work, effort to continually learn and improve, and you are highly respected here. People who are insecure often try to shield themselves from their own shortcomings by seizing on and exaggerating the real or perceived flaws, mistakes, and missteps of others. It is a deeply counterproductive approach, especially when it comes to people skills. Success in almost any environment depends on strong interpersonal abilities. Leaders and entrepreneurs succeed, because they can effectively appeal to people in promoting their vision, ideas, products, and services. Without good interpersonal skills, even considerable talent (and he certainly has it) is unlikely to be fully realized or effectively leveraged. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Need to get this area to move East for less of a -PNA IMO. Wavelengths are too short in Feb for convection to be hugging this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: Need to get this area to move East for less of a -PNA IMO. Wavelengths are too short in Feb for convection to be hugging this area. Not gonna happen IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not gonna happen IMO. Probably not in Feb, but I could see it happening sometime in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 13 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: Probably not in Feb, but I could see it happening sometime in March. Yea, better chance in March, but it's probably decidedly RNA from here on out IMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Definitely does down as a weak La Nina in my book....meager, sure....but MEI was well withing La Nina territory and there wasn't much of a STJ presence in the US. I guess 1995-1996 must have been an El Nino, right? MJO still avoided phase 8 for the most part. Apparently the CPC agrees, considering they are now using RONI as the official measure of ENSO intensity. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, better chance in March, but it's probably decidedly RNA from here on out IMO. Not a bad thing if we can keep the PNA aligned with the mountain west rather than west coast, and get some blocking. If it’s snowing at the space needle, then it’s probably more lights out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: Not a bad thing if we can keep the PNA aligned with the mountain west rather than west coast, and get some blocking. If it’s snowing at the space needle, then it’s probably more lights out. I don't anticipate lights out in March, at least for the NE, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not gonna happen IMO. 100%. The +PNA period is over and done. RIP. This month is going to be decidedly, predominantly -PNA and probably strongly so at times. These fantasies on twitter right now that the models are all going to be wrong about it and there’s going to be a ridge over the west are going to go down in flames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: 100%. The +PNA period is over and done. RIP. This month is going to be decidedly, predominantly -PNA and probably strongly so at times. These fantasies on twitter right now that the models are all going to be wrong about it and there’s going to be a ridge over the west are going to go down in flames I haven't seen anyone predicting a +PNA for February, but if so, I would agree that they are woefully misguided. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't anticipate lights out in March, at least for the NE, anyway. Feb Nina -PNA is serviceable here. Averages around 50% of normal (10”). Would say that weak-warm +ENSO Feb performs the best here, however. Such as in 2020, 2019, 2015, 2007. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I haven't seen anyone predicting a +PNA for February, but if so, I would agree that they are woefully misguided.If anything, the legacy EPS and the EPS-AI have gotten even stronger with the -PNA since yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: 100%. The +PNA period is over and done. RIP. This month is going to be decidedly, predominantly -PNA and probably strongly so at times. These fantasies on twitter right now that the models are all going to be wrong about it and there’s going to be a ridge over the west are going to go down in flames I haven’t seen any +PNA Feb predictions on twitter, even from BAM. Seeing a ton of “look, it’s not a torch posts” which is weird because I also can’t find any reputable post that predicted a torch. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 The Euro Weeklies (extended EPS) have been trending away from the mid-Feb 10 mb wind reversal: Run from just 4 days ago (1/31/26) was strongly predicting it with most members reversing sometime within 2/12-18 with lowest mean ~0: Today (2/4/26): Only 5 of 100 members reversing during 2/12-18 with lowest mean during then down only to ~+11: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 25 minutes ago, GaWx said: The Euro Weeklies (extended EPS) have been trending away from the mid-Feb 10 mb wind reversal: Run from just 4 days ago (1/31/26) was strongly predicting it with most members reversing sometime within 2/12-18 with lowest mean ~0: Today (2/4/26): Only 5 of 100 members reversing during 2/12-18 with lowest mean during then down only to ~+11: The wind reversal prospects are dropping off quickly. I’m starting to think there actually may not end up not being a major SSWE and an SPV split like @so_whats_happening has been musing…. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I do think an ENSO Feb mismatch in the NE is plausible when it comes to the surface temps vs. H5. Nina-like aloft at 500mb, but Nino-like below normal surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The wind reversal prospects are dropping off quickly. I’m starting to think there actually may not end up not being a major SSWE and an SPV split like @so_whats_happening has been musing…. Could also be a case where it's a bit later, too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said: Feb Nina -PNA is serviceable here. Averages around 50% of normal (10”). Would say that weak-warm +ENSO Feb performs the best here, however. Such as in 2020, 2019, 2015, 2007. I'd replace 2020 with 2005. 2020 was an outlier, snowless year, which will drag down the composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 35 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: I'd replace 2020 with 2005. 2020 was an outlier, snowless year, which will drag down the composite. Feb 2020 had above average snowfall here (24.9”, Feb average is 20”). The worst Feb here was 2024 (strong nino), which featured a paltry 0.8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 15 hours ago, snowman19 said: If anything, the legacy EPS and the EPS-AI have gotten even stronger with the -PNA since yesterday There's no question that the PNA+ regime is ending. The ECMWF weeklies keep the PNA negative through the duration of their forecast period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 NDJ 25-26 RONI: -1.0 January 2026 PDO: -1.19 (73rd straight negative month) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 55 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: NDJ 25-26 RONI: -1.0 January 2026 PDO: -1.19 (73rd straight negative month) Nice. I had -1 to -1.2 as the forecast peak RONI range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: There's no question that the PNA+ regime is ending. The ECMWF weeklies keep the PNA negative through the duration of their forecast period. If I were to break Feb roughly into thirds, this is how I would lay it out: First third (1-10th): Very cold/well below normal Second third: (11-20th): Milder risks, but not well above normal. -PNA Third (21-28th): Potentially return to colder than normal with established -WPO + blocking (this period more TBD). Not nearly as cold as the first third. Still -PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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