2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

If you're looking at it from where you live, I guess it's not great but overall it quickly brings back the -WPO so they'll be a lot of arctic air pressing into the ridge so I would say it actually looks pretty wintry for the country especially as you go north and west. I know that's not good for your area though.

If I’m not mistaken @donsutherland1 mentioned just yesterday that once we get to mid-February and beyond, the WPO becomes less important

[e pluribus unum]

7 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

You can really see how that California tule fog or whatever they were calling it screwed us out of an even warmer December & January.

Subsidence inversions are a very natural part of the winter climo in the West and it's tough to juggle record warmth in the higher elevations with record warmth in the valleys in December and January. Massive ridges in the West in the mid-winter often lead to colder than average conditions in the valleys. 

The PNW actually had the perfect storm of warmth in December with the jet stream lashing us the entire month and enough warm air advection in the higher elevations to screw them up as well. Down in CA they were far enough removed from the jet for the inversion to hold at the lower elevations. 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think you are incorrectly referring to one of my older discussions. My statement was that in order to get back to colder winters prior to the big  temperature rise in 2015-2016 we would need a major volcanic eruption to cool the climate down for 3-7 years before the cooling aerosol effects wear off.

What this means is that it’s going to be a challenge to get a repeat of 2014-2015 in Boston, 2013-2014 in the Great Lakes, 2009-2010 in the Mid-Atlantic, 1995-1996 in the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast, the top 10 coldest winters which we experienced Nationally during the 1970s , and for North America on the whole in 1993-1994 winter.

It doesn’t mean that we can’t still get colder winters especially on a regional to multi regional basis. Just that they will struggle to match the colder rankings we experienced back in the old days. This winter and last winter are prime examples of this. 

1993-94 (and possibly even 1995-96) was the result of the after effects of Pinatubo, our last major volcanic eruption. The cooling effects definitely wore off by the 1997-98 el nino, which was the next big global temperature jump.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If I’m not mistaken @donsutherland1 mentioned just yesterday that once we get to mid-February and beyond, the WPO becomes less important

Yes. That's due to shortening wave lengths. EPO becomes relatively more important.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think you are incorrectly referring to one of my older discussions. My statement was that in order to get back to colder winters prior to the big  temperature rise in 2015-2016 we would need a major volcanic eruption to cool the climate down for 3-7 years before the cooling aerosol effects wear off.

What this means is that it’s going to be a challenge to get a repeat of 2014-2015 in Boston, 2013-2014 in the Great Lakes, 2009-2010 in the Mid-Atlantic, 1995-1996 in the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast, the top 10 coldest winters which we experienced Nationally during the 1970s , and for North America on the whole in 1993-1994 winter.

It doesn’t mean that we can’t still get colder winters especially on a regional to multi regional basis. Just that they will struggle to match the colder rankings we experienced back in the old days. This winter and last winter are prime examples of this. 

I misunderstood, thinking the assertion is volcano is needed for any kind of cold anomoly winter. I feel very fortunate to live in the Great Lakes because our type of climate makes a complete winterless winter impossible. Warmer winters can see some real dynamic snowstorms ala 2022-23.

A winter like the present one, 2025-26, is what I would call a classic textbook example of a harsh winter. Below avg temps, above avg snowfall and above avg snowcover. No standout storms but solid deep winter since late November with just 2 brief breaks. Today is the 21st day in a row snow has fallen. 

I dont ever really ever expect another 2013-14.

Took this Pic this evening when dropping something off at the library. 

[mitchnick]

11 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Who cares when there's this too.

https://x.com/JustinWeather/status/2018864755256250868?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^2018864755256250868|twgr^afdbcb3bf1f7882daea6c56237bcb5b4801b0525|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fi%2Fstatus%2F2018864755256250868

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Who cares when there's this too.

https://x.com/JustinWeather/status/2018864755256250868?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^2018864755256250868|twgr^afdbcb3bf1f7882daea6c56237bcb5b4801b0525|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fi%2Fstatus%2F2018864755256250868

 

Just posted this in the MA sub...that is absolutely crazy

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, roardog said:

If you're looking at it from where you live, I guess it's not great but overall it quickly brings back the -WPO so they'll be a lot of arctic air pressing into the ridge so I would say it actually looks pretty wintry for the country especially as you go north and west. I know that's not good for your area though.

 

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

You’re right that I was thinking more from a E US and moreso from a SE US perspective and should have stated that. My bad. I just edited the post. See if you agree more with the new wording.

 For Michigan and all of the E US, it looks mild through ~Feb 20th. After that, when model skill is very low, it’s much more up in the air.

Its been such a steady cold winter locally, we forget that in DJF, warm anamolies are not a nail in the coffin here. In fact. If we can avoid actual torching and get an active pattern it can actually produce very well, but its of course a gamble. This would be the first time this cold season wed be in a more gambling type pattern. Its been solid cold and winter threats briefly interrupted by 2 well advertised torches. 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just posted this in the MA sub...that is absolutely crazy

It brings some reality to those who act as if, if not expect, the world is going to end. Just ridges and troughs waxing and waning this year on the Conus.

[raindancewx]

Outside of the RONI which is essentially a global warming signal in the Tropics, the winter behaviorally is more like a cold neutral with a -PDO. SSTs, SOI, subsurface and actual surface conditions are Neutral. You have high subtropical jet energy, less subtropical ridging, different MJO progression, a warm subsurface all winter compared to Nina conditions.

January wasn't really that different late month from 2014. It was actually much colder in the past two weeks if anything, which is why I tried not to moderate it too much. I'm not like the Ray guy who had the MIdwest +5 or whatever for January. I used 2014 because I thought it would be really fucking cold in January

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Does the pattern usually persist in Feb-March?

Top 20 analogs

Following Feb 500mb

Following Feb Air Temp

Following March Air Temp

The pattern seems to take a break to +TNH in Feb, then returns in March. It's interesting that models have this N. Pacific High pressure building, although they are south of the normal +TNH position right now. 

Interestingly, the same Dec-Jan pattern actually holds somewhat through the whole following April - August