2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would agree, but we still seem to be mired in the "what can go wrong, will go wrong"-101-ways-to-not-snow regime. I think we are transition out of that here in the 2nd half of the decade given the cold, but obviously still a ways to go given the lack of snow and residence time of the MJO in phase 8.

Regardless what temps do snow still goes in cycles too. Back 2007-15 even in shit patterns it snowed a lot.

It has snowed here on 28 of the past 42 days. We've totaled 18.2" and had snow on the ground since late november with exception of Dec 21-28 (tho it is melting today). I can NEVER say no to a solid winter look...but its nearly 3 years since we've had a 6" storm. We have no issue getting snow, just haven't had a good one in a while. 

[GaWx]

Bamwx backtracking today for the medium range:

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Bamwx backtracking today for the medium range:

 

I dont see the models backtracking with the cold. 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I dont see the models backtracking with the cold. 

I think it’s BAMwx having been colder than the models and now being forced to backtrack.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I think everyone in here would be up for a moderate el nino, with a neutral or +PDO.

[donsutherland1]

Several thoughts as we move deeper into January.

La Niña is clearly waning. Region 3.4 has seen some recent warming. But La Niña is still having an influence. In a visible sign that there remains ocean-atmosphere coupling, the AAM is negative and forecast to remain negative for at least the next 7-10 days.  As the La Niña wanes, its influence will also fluctuate. 

Fading weak La Niña events have mixed outcomes for February. This mixture of outcomes suggests that atmospheric patterns begin to carry greater weight as ENSO forcing weakens.

By the end of the week, it will become clearer whether the PNA will move toward a regime change or a highly unusual brief PNA+ period followed by a resumption of a mainly negative PNA. By that time, the teleconnection guidance will be in its high-skill forecasting range.

The base case remains a turn toward colder but not necessarily severely cold weather during the second half of January. The southern tier may still see only temporary intrusions of cold air. Snowfall prospects for the East Coast will depend heavily on the evolution of the PNA. In any case, at least through mid-month, significant snowfalls are unlikely for the East, as well as parts of the Great Lakes Region. 

[GaWx]

Here’s a link to the last video from Michael Clark, done on 12/30 in which he was highly confident and even smug:
 

 From this 12/30 video, he posted a forecast map for 12/31-1/15 showing most of the E US (Minneapolis to SL to ATL eastward) BN. Instead it is headed toward solidly AN. I project Chicago, ATL, and RDU will end up ~+5 to +6 for 12/31-1/15. He forecasted Chic at -3 to -4 and ATL/RDU at -1 to -2. BAM is headed toward a miss of -6 to -9 for 12/31-1/15 in a good portion of the E US!

@donsutherland1

[Krs4Lfe]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Here’s a link to the last video from Michael Clark, done on 12/30 in which he was highly confident and even smug:
 

 From this 12/30 video, he posted a forecast map for 12/31-1/15 showing most of the E US (Minneapolis to SL to ATL eastward) BN. Instead it is headed toward solidly AN. I project Chicago, ATL, and RDU will end up ~+5 to +6 for 12/31-1/15. He forecasted Chic at -3 to -4 and ATL/RDU at -1 to -2. BAM is headed toward a miss of -6 to -9 for 12/31-1/15 in a good portion of the E US!

@donsutherland1

They rushed the pattern change. The pattern will become colder around 1/11 no doubt. But the thaw is very powerful and very warm and it’ll take significant cold to make these areas below normal temps for January. Cold is only one step towards creating snow chances. Still nothing to look forward to on the horizon 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Here’s a link to the last video from Michael Clark, done on 12/30 in which he was highly confident and even smug:
 

 From this 12/30 video, he posted a forecast map for 12/31-1/15 showing most of the E US (Minneapolis to SL to ATL eastward) BN. Instead it is headed toward solidly AN. I project Chicago, ATL, and RDU will end up ~+5 to +6 for 12/31-1/15. He forecasted Chic at -3 to -4 and ATL/RDU at -1 to -2. BAM is headed toward a miss of -6 to -9 for 12/31-1/15 in a good portion of the E US!

@donsutherland1

I ended up nailing that stretch after the cold-scare. My PNA call for the month is more precarious, though...we'll see. I would have made the same call again given the data at my disposal last fall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

They rushed the pattern change. The pattern will become colder around 1/11 no doubt. But the thaw is very powerful and very warm and it’ll take significant cold to make these areas below normal temps for January. Cold is only one step towards creating snow chances. Still nothing to look forward to on the horizon 

Yea, just don't allow that to lull you into a false sense of security concerning a warm February and early finish. It's not over...barely started.

[GaWx]

On 1/5/2026 at 10:35 AM, snowman19 said:

I’m not sure how much we can trust the MJO progs all the way into the start of February based on how utterly awful they were for December. But that aside, the thing I definitely doubt is 5 months of below normal cold in this new CC regime, which is most pronounced in winter. We have been lucky thus far to have seen November, December and the start of January see below normal cold. I just cannot see all 5 months in a row (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) averaging below normal cold. We haven’t seen a La Niña that averaged all 5 months in a row below normal in over 30 years (95-96) and that was well before CC really started

Today I estimated that a significant portion of the E US (at least the area from Chicago to much of the SE) will end up ~5-6 warmer than normal for the first half of Jan. With that, the chance of Jan overall coming in cold is low and warmer than normal overall has a better chance. So, the cold month string will be broken most likely. Plus Dec was mainly NN from the SE to the SL area meaning Dec’s cold didn’t even come close to covering the entire E US.

[GaWx]

From Eric Webb, he’s clearly on the 2013-4 and seems excited:

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today I estimated that a significant portion of the E US (at least the area from Chicago to much of the SE will end up ~5-6 warmer than normal for the first half of Jan. With that, the chance of Jan overall coming in cold is low and warmer than normal overall has a better chance. So, the cold month string will be broken most likely. Plus Dec was mainly NN from the SE to the SL area meaning Dec’s cold didn’t even come close to covering the entire E US.

Depending how cold the 2nd half of January is, I think we still have a good shot at geing colder than avg. Departure at DTW thru 1/5 is -4.8°. Mild weather will naje that a positive Departure but I doubt +5 or 6 by the time we turn cold 

[MJO812]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

There's no way you all can be calling this the biggest mid-winter la nina collapse when 2022-23 literally happened just a few years ago. That year, you had a deep multi-year moderate la nina to begin the season turn into an ENSO neutral by winter's end, and later transitioned into a strong el nino the following season.

We barely had a la nina this year.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We're not going to hit La Nina on the ONI. It's going to officially be "ENSO Neutral" for the 2nd straight year. 

[bncho]

This might be a rare year where the NYC indicator of 4"+ snow in December will not work out regarding above average snowfall for NYC for the season. I'm not sure how they'll make up enough ground come spring. I would agree with @bluewave regarding the fact that there would have to be a NESIS KU for NYC to reach above average snowfall, and although the late-January pattern into early-February might look cold it's not a pattern that screams KU at all. If there's a viable pathway for NYC to reach above average snowfall I'd be intrigued as to how they get there—some of the more knowledgable posters can chime in here.

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We're not going to hit La Nina on the ONI. It's going to officially be "ENSO Neutral" for the 2nd straight year. 

Chuck,

 But for the second straight year it will be a borderline weak/moderate Niña based on RONI:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

 

[so_whats_happening]

From December until January 2nd subsurface. You can see very little movement has occurred but there is some decent potential showing up that the WWB event showing up may in fact trigger a kelvin wave that has some umpphhh behind it.

Im curious if we can finally knock out the pesky cool anomaly that has been around even during the last Nino event around 140W in the subsurface. Im not so certain we push Nino status going into Spring and summer but certainly worth watching if more WWB's start to develop as time goes on. Fun stuff!

Beginning of January a bit warmer than I expected but should quickly reverse course in the next week and finally dislodge the cold across Alaska and NW Canada.

[GaWx]

 With El Niño favored for next fall/winter, I looked at E US temps during multiyear La Niña Febs that immediately precede El Niño:

1911: cool NE/mild elsewhere

1918: cool NE/mild SE

1972: cool

1976: warm

2009: mild NE/NN SE

2018: warm

2023: warm

 

Feb: SE temps/RDU snow

1911: 1 AN/0”
1918: 3 AN/T and some ZR
1972: 5 BN/1.4” SN/IP
1976: 5 AN/T
2009: 1 AN/T
2018: 7 AN/0”
2023: 9 AN/0”

Average of these 7 Febs at RDU: 3 AN, 0.2” SN/IP

Of the 7:
-one was cold
-two were NN
-four were mild to warm

 So, these analogs favor the @snowman19mild Feb thinking in the SE. So, if we get another 2/2014 like I think both@40/70 Benchmarkand Eric Webb are more or less favoring (correct me if I’m wrong), I’d be thrilled since these analogs don’t favor it. 
 
 In the NE, these analogs are mixed with 3 BN and 4 AN.

Here’s the avg of the 7 Febs: check out how warm the SE, Midsouth, lower MidAtlantic, and OH valley are:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Chuck,

 But for the second straight year it will be a borderline weak/moderate Niña based on RONI:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

 

Yeah, that's probably more important. The SOI was positive 17 months in a row until Dec 2025 ended that streak, but for the first 15 months it was weak.. 0 to +10.. then we had 2 >+10 at the end, then it petered out. My ENSO subsurface monthly index is going to come in positive for Jan though.. not many Nina's that had warm subsurface in January. I'll have to see which ones had that. I know that testing all years gives more of a +PNA signal when the central-ENSO subsurface is warm. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 hours ago, bncho said:

This might be a rare year where the NYC indicator of 4"+ snow in December will not work out regarding above average snowfall for NYC for the season. I'm not sure how they'll make up enough ground come spring. I would agree with @bluewave regarding the fact that there would have to be a NESIS KU for NYC to reach above average snowfall, and although the late-January pattern into early-February might look cold it's not a pattern that screams KU at all. If there's a viable pathway for NYC to reach above average snowfall I'd be intrigued as to how they get there—some of the more knowledgable posters can chime in here.

They're just going to have to hope that everything comes together in early-mid March, like it did to save 2009 and 2017. Those seasons were going below average without March.

If it doesn't snow, it might be better if January and February torched than if they were cold. If those months are cold, then it's likely that March is going to be warm, and if that's the case, then the winter's cooked. Remember, we've been in a cold pattern for the most part since August. A uber warm month is lurking around the corner.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

They're just going to have to hope that everything comes together in early-mid March, like it did to save 2009 and 2017. Those seasons were going below average without March.

If it doesn't snow, it might be better if January and February torched than if they were cold. If those months are cold, then it's likely that March is going to be warm, and if that's the case, then the winter's cooked. Remember, we've been in a cold pattern for the most part since August. A uber warm month is lurking around the corner.

Giving up on February already ? 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

They're just going to have to hope that everything comes together in early-mid March, like it did to save 2009 and 2017. Those seasons were going below average without March.

If it doesn't snow, it might be better if January and February torched than if they were cold. If those months are cold, then it's likely that March is going to be warm, and if that's the case, then the winter's cooked. Remember, we've been in a cold pattern for the most part since August. A uber warm month is lurking around the corner.

lol this kind of logic has only surfaced in the last few years

[brooklynwx99]

there's really no reason why the pattern will just magically fall apart as we head into Feb... +EAMT should keep the jet extended along with tropical forcing moving into the CPAC

the recently stronger SPV is also having zero impact, as the earlier SSW downwelled and is leading to a -AO that will persist into mid-late month. and if anything, a strong MJO pulse into phases 6 and 7 into Feb will encourage weakening of the SPV, potentially allowing for a SSW into mid-Feb. that's way out there, though

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, bncho said:

This might be a rare year where the NYC indicator of 4"+ snow in December will not work out regarding above average snowfall for NYC for the season. I'm not sure how they'll make up enough ground come spring. I would agree with @bluewave regarding the fact that there would have to be a NESIS KU for NYC to reach above average snowfall, and although the late-January pattern into early-February might look cold it's not a pattern that screams KU at all. If there's a viable pathway for NYC to reach above average snowfall I'd be intrigued as to how they get there—some of the more knowledgable posters can chime in here.

Don't write off early March as a potential prime KU target period....I also can see something pretty substantial in early February.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol this kind of logic has only surfaced in the last few years

It's not logic at all.....it's fear-mongering neurosis triggered by unsavory weather outcomes of the past. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there's really no reason why the pattern will just magically fall apart as we head into Feb... +EAMT should keep the jet extended along with tropical forcing moving into the CPAC

the recently stronger SPV is also having zero impact, as the earlier SSW downwelled and is leading to a -AO that will persist into mid-late month. and if anything, a strong MJO pulse into phases 6 and 7 into Feb will encourage weakening of the SPV, potentially allowing for a SSW into mid-Feb. that's way out there, though

This x1,000,000.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This x1,000,000.

March 2018 is the crown jewel of this kind of warming, everyone likes to bring that absurd MJO pulse up haha

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

March 2018 is the crown jewel of this kind of warming, everyone likes to bring that absurd MJO pulse up haha

2001 and 2023 are also analogs. Does this guarantee a big come back in terms of snow? Nope...maybe we still get boned, but what I can tell you is that there isn't going to be some exotic +7 monthly departure in February just because the first half of winter was cold. I am pretty confident in that SSW, but IF that fails...then I could see a very warm March...but doubtful.

February is not going to be very warm in the mean...maybe it ends up like January only in reverse order (cold start, warm up later as the strat does it's thing), but it won't be a lost cause.