2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree...I do think the +TNH can carry over, though...maybe some misattribution going on if we get the colder Feb.

 Again to make sure folks keep track of what Webb actually said, he never said “Modoki El Niño forcing”. He said this:

“It’s really interesting to see that we have already pushed the Pacific mean state to something in between La Nina & a modoki/Central Pacific El Niño.”

 So, in between La Niña and Modoki El Niño is exactly what he referred to. Per his research, a Feb in that group tended to be cold.

 By the way, Dec came in at -0.98 on a RONI basis and the latest BoM still has Feb down to -0.6. So, Feb will still be La Niña in that respect, which I respect.
 

[JenkinsJinkies]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2007877906010358075

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2007877906010358075

Taking what Webb said and looking ahead to where the Feb MJO may start (fwiw since that’s in the low skill 4 week away period and the models recently have done poorly much earlier than that), the latest forecasts of the extendeds look seemingly favorable for early Feb as they’re showing it going into phase 8 then: coldest Feb phases are 8-1-2-3

1/3 ext GEFS:

1/3 ext EPS:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Again to make sure folks keep track of what Webb actually said, he never said “Modoki El Niño forcing”. He said this:

“It’s really interesting to see that we have already pushed the Pacific mean state to something in between La Nina & a modoki/Central Pacific El Niño.”

 So, in between La Niña and Modoki El Niño is exactly what he referred to. Per his research, a Feb in that group tended to be cold.

 By the way, Dec came in at -0.98 on a RONI basis and the latest BoM still has Feb down to -0.6. So, Feb will still be La Niña in that respect, which I respect.
 

Yea, I get what he's saying...those changes aren't really impacting the pattern this winter IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm sure La Nina's influence has definitely peak and is starting to wane...so maybe a bit less resistance to more favorable outcomes, but not like it's the primary driver....+TNH is not uncommon in La Niña seasons.

[GaWx]

OND RONI -0.92

OND ONI -0.55

So, OND RONI was 0.37 lower than OND ONI. That difference was a similar 0.35 for SON meaning the difference has been pretty steady for awhile.

[MJO812]

[JenkinsJinkies]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I posted the link earlier

[GaWx]

Jan update of MJO through Jan 2nd: finally heading back the other way inside the circle. So the first two days of Jan are on or inside circle. 12/29-1/2 were in phase 5:

[jaxjagman]

Kinda question a modoki later ,in 2023 many people said the same thing but it never happened,we are actually headed towards the same scenerio but with even more questions if this will might even happen,its still why i like the 2022-2023 analogs winter,the top was around the same time in 2023,the bottom is 2026 latest

[Krs4Lfe]

7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Kinda question a modoki later ,in 2023 many people said the same thing but it never happened,we are actually headed towards the same scenerio but with even more questions if this will might even happen,its still why i like the 2022-2023 analogs winter,the top was around the same time in 2023,the bottom is 2025 latest

That’s terrifying. 2022-2023 was a nonexistent winter for those south of central New England. The west throuhh upper Midwest and Great Lakes/ north New England did great. South of there was like spring all winter 

[jaxjagman]

I mean each day you see the subsurface warming east of the IDL and slowly moving upwards towards the surface,its still NINA,buit you are seeing its demise every day mow

[GaWx]

 Looking at the bigger picture of the 100% of -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 that switched to a +PNA for Jan: none of them did what the ensemble means are showing, which is a 6-7 day long +PNA that starts Jan 9-10 but unfortunately then turns back to a -PNA for the rest of the runs. That would seal the deal for no +PNA for Jan as a whole, which obviously is not at all what I would want to see and would be a first for -ENSO since 1983-4.

 So, either the ensemble means very soon change their tune for 1/16+ to not go back toward a -PNA or the chance of getting a +PNA Jan is “cooked” using the term some of you guys like to use. Being that 1/16 is still 11 days out and considering the -PNA model bias, there’s still time for that to change. But if we don’t see this start to change within the next few days, the chance of getting a +PNA Jan will drop dramatically.

Reflecting on milder E US forecasts, NG is way down this morning (-6%).

[GaWx]

 So, unless the +PNA hangs on instead of switching back within a week like the ensembles show, we’d likely not end up with a BN Jan. 

 But we can still look ahead to Feb., which has some encouraging signs:

1. There are long range model progs that the MJO will be headed into 8 near the start of Feb:

2. Though the CFS AAM outlook often jumps around and thus can’t be trusted, the latest does have a reversal to an El-Ninoish +AAM very late in Jan.

 

3. Webb is now optimistic about Feb. And @40/70 Benchmarkremains optimistic about a cold Feb.

 

[Krs4Lfe]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Looking at the bigger picture of the 100% of -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 that switched to a +PNA for Jan: none of them did what the ensemble means are showing, which is a 6-7 day long +PNA that starts Jan 9-10 but unfortunately then turns back to a -PNA for the rest of the runs. That would seal the deal for no +PNA for Jan as a whole, which obviously is not at all what I would want to see and would be a first for -ENSO since 1983-4.

 So, either the ensemble means very soon change their tune for 1/16+ to not go back toward a -PNA or the chance of getting a +PNA Jan is “cooked” using the term some of you guys like to use. Being that 1/16 is still 11 days out and considering the -PNA model bias, there’s still time for that to change. But if we don’t see this start to change within the next few days, the chance of getting a +PNA Jan will drop dramatically.

Reflecting on milder E US forecasts, NG is way down this morning (-6%).

Either way, with a properly timed +PNA spike and ridge over Idaho/Rockies, we can get some deeper storms over the east. However, with forecasts showing the -PNA returning towards the end of model range, that would reduce the chances for what I just mentioned above. And like you said, that's evident by the milder east US temperature forecasts, and the sharp cold projected to return during mid month doesn't seem as likely 

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

That’s terrifying. 2022-2023 was a nonexistent winter for those south of central New England. The west throuhh upper Midwest and Great Lakes/ north New England did great. South of there was like spring all winter 

2022-23 was an interesting winter here in the southern Great Lakes. There were multiple good snowstorms (mostly wet snow) and a bad ice storm, plus a frigid and snowy Christmas week. But overall it was a very mild winter. 

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

2022-23 was an interesting winter here in the southern Great Lakes. There were multiple good snowstorms (mostly wet snow) and a bad ice storm, plus a frigid and snowy Christmas week. But overall it was a very mild winter. 

Yeah the West US through North New England did well but aside from that, most of the winter was very mild for most of the US. But even in ratter winters like that, someone usually performs well (like the west in 2024 and 2020) but here, it doesn't look like anyone is going to perform well with such a dry January on the way. Cold, yes (not deep cold but probably cold enough). Precipitation? Looks like the desert out there

[snowman19]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 So, unless the +PNA hangs on instead of switching back within a week like the ensembles show, we’d likely not end up with a BN Jan. 

 But we can still look ahead to Feb., which has some encouraging signs:

1. There are long range model progs that the MJO will be headed into 8 near the start of Feb:

2. Though the CFS AAM outlook often jumps around and thus can’t be trusted, the latest does have a reversal to an El-Ninoish +AAM very late in Jan.

 

3. Webb is now optimistic about Feb. And @40/70 Benchmarkremains optimistic about a cold Feb.

 

I’m not sure how much we can trust the MJO progs all the way into the start of February based on how utterly awful they were for December. But that aside, the thing I definitely doubt is 5 months of below normal cold in this new CC regime, which is most pronounced in winter. We have been lucky thus far to have seen November, December and the start of January see below normal cold. I just cannot see all 5 months in a row (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) averaging below normal cold. We haven’t seen a La Niña that averaged all 5 months in a row below normal in over 30 years (95-96) and that was well before CC really started

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah the West US through North New England did well but aside from that, most of the winter was very mild for most of the US. But even in ratter winters like that, someone usually performs well (like the west in 2024 and 2020) but here, it doesn't look like anyone is going to perform well with such a dry January on the way. Cold, yes (not deep cold but probably cold enough). Precipitation? Looks like the desert out there

Mild isnt detrimental to snow here in more northern climates, but its a completely different type of winter. Highlights of 2022-23 would be that we had 5" of snow on the ground Christmas morning, and between January-March we saw 3 different 5-7" snowstorms, a huge ice storm, and other smaller snowfalls. But we also had several multiple-week stretches of bare ground and mild temps.

So far, 2025-26 has been good for cold and snowcover here but without big storms. Snow has fallen on 28 of the 41 days since November 26, and snow has been on the ground since Thanksgiving weekend with the exception of Christmas week (lol). Looking at the long range, I wouldnt necessarily assume a dry January. Im not looking forward to the thaw this week but am liking mid-Jan into Feb for here.

[GaWx]

 Back to the Jan PNA, this 24 hour change of the GEFS mean does show how quickly forecasts can change:

 24 hours ago (1/4 forecast): rose to neutral Jan 10th but that was it as it then aimed slowly downward afterward with only 4 members staying +PNA to the end:

Today (1/5 forecast): rises to neutral Jan 9th and quickly goes to a +PNA for a week, a significant + change. However, the mean then heads back down to neutral. That being said, note that there are more members (~10/33%) that stay + to the end (1/19) vs only 4 yesterday. What that 1/3 of members is doing is the kind of thing we need going past midmonth to have a good shot at a +PNA Jan like numerous analogs had been suggesting has a high chance:

 

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not sure how much we can trust the MJO progs all the way into the start of February based on how utterly awful they were for December. But that aside, the thing I definitely doubt is 5 months of below normal cold in this new CC regime, which is most pronounced in winter. We have been lucky thus far to have seen November, December and the start of January see below normal cold. I just cannot see all 5 months in a row (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) averaging below normal cold. We haven’t seen a La Niña that averaged all 5 months in a row below normal in over 30 years (95-96) and that was well before CC really started

1. But Jan as a whole may not end up cold if the -PNA returns midmonth. If not, that breaks the cold streak.

2. My Feb post didn’t say anything about March.

[snowman19]

Regardless of whether it gets cold again….I feel that just after mid-January into late January probably does (gets cold), with a longwave flow pattern like this, good luck getting big coastal storms….

[Krs4Lfe]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Regardless of whether it gets cold again….I feel that just after mid-January into late January probably does (gets cold), with a longwave flow pattern like this, good luck getting big coastal storms….
 

That's the biggest reason as to why there is no meaningful storminess in the foreseeable future and why winter has been limited to the midwest and northeast. The STJ is non existent, the pacific flow is too fast so the Northern stream can't link up with the non-existent southern stream (so no amplification). Even during our ratter winters we see some large storms somewhere. January 2025, January 2024, February 2021, January 2015 all had sharp returns to larger storms and widespread wintry precipation after a mild previous month. But January 2026 is looking high and dry for all of us

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

That's the biggest reason as to why there is no meaningful storminess in the foreseeable future and why winter has been limited to the midwest and northeast. The STJ is non existent, the pacific flow is too fast so the Northern stream can't link up with the non-existent southern stream (so no amplification). Even during our ratter winters we see some large storms somewhere. January 2025, January 2024, February 2021, January 2015 all had sharp returns to larger storms and widespread wintry precipation after a mild previous month. But January 2026 is looking high and dry for all of us

From my post this morning in the NYC forum:

“Just looking back on met fall and so far this winter, we have only seen one true coastal storm (back in the fall). That probably does not bode well for coastal storm prospects going forward. Normally, the fall storm tracks set the tone for winter. The winters that saw a bunch of coastal storms tipped their hand in the fall with a bunch of coastal storms. There is still no signs of a classic KU pattern taking shape on the long range ensembles. When you add to this the ongoing drought/dry pattern we’ve been in since the tail end of summer, 2024, I’m doubting a sudden flip to a bunch of coastals popping up. The long term trend has definitely been dryness with a very muted southern branch and a dominant and strong northern branch. Could I be wrong and some unexpected anomalous pattern suddenly develops? Sure”

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Regardless of whether it gets cold again….I feel that just after mid-January into late January probably does (gets cold), with a longwave flow pattern like this, good luck getting big coastal storms….
 

Agree on big coastal storms, but that doesn't  necessarily preclude snow, period...

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

1. But Jan as a whole may not end up cold if the -PNA returns midmonth. If not, that breaks the cold streak.

We've been in a cold streak for the most part since August. We are well overdue for a well warmer than average month.