2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Why are you so confident ? You really dont see a better pattern ahead with the MJO going into the favorable phases ? Its you vs the world in that regards lol

No, I do...I just don't think you will benefit much from it in December. Stop showing me Strat warming links and show me pics of snow in Central Park, or shut it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

who are you even following? nobody reputable is calling for that 

Maybe you can chime into MJO Chief Wiggum about when the big snow is coming for Central Park...

[GaWx]

Today’s MJO forecasts finally came out:

GEFS: Phase 8 12/2-16 (15 days+)

EPS: Phase 8 12/3-16 (14 days+)

 Should either of these progs verify, it would be the longest winter phase 8 in 50 years!

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I still do not see any pattern that supports major I-95 snow through mid december. Nothing will dig with this. You’re looking at light events/sliders. Still favors Great Lakes/Interior the most. 

 

Looks like clippers 

[brooklynwx99]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe you can chime into MJO Chief Wiggum about when the big snow is coming for Central Park...

i mean, I don't think it's deniable that the pattern looks conducive for at BN temps for most of the month. looks a lot better than it did last week with the GEFS falling flat on its face. then, we should see that pattern continue into mid-late month aside from maybe a brief warmup around the 13th or so

snow is more difficult to predict, though. the northern mid-Atlantic should see chances through the month, especially after the 15th IMO

you know Tony just regurgitates that stuff though lmao 

[MJO812]

55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I do...I just don't think you will benefit much from it in December. Stop showing me Strat warming links and show me pics of snow in Central Park, or shut it.

 

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe you can chime into MJO Chief Wiggum about when the big snow is coming for Central Park...

Damn whats up your ass ? So hostile.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, I don't think it's deniable that the pattern looks conducive for at BN temps for most of the month. looks a lot better than it did last week with the GEFS falling flat on its face. then, we should see that pattern continue into mid-late month aside from maybe a brief warmup around the 13th or so

snow is more difficult to predict, though. the northern mid-Atlantic should see chances through the month, especially after the 15th IMO

you know Tony just regurgitates that stuff though lmao 

From who ? And yes I agree that we should get chances once we get into 8. There should be a lag so we are looking at mid to late December for a possibly big storm. 

[GaWx]

 The Euro Weeklies have a potent mean SER/-PNA Dec 15th-Jan 11th. Though the Weeklies have over forecasted the SER recently, it’s getting increasingly likely that Dec will average a -PNA. Since 1983-4, there have been 11 -ENSO winters with a -PNA. All 11 had a +PNA in the subsequent Jan. Based on this, the odds of a +PNA for Jan averaged out are increasing. If that were to verify, the chances would be high that the Euro’s potent -PNA Jan 1-11 will be wrong. We’ll see. 

12/15-21:

 

12/22-28:

 

12/29-1/4:

 

1/5-11:

 

[MJO812]

Weeklies

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies

This is downright ugly for the SE 12/15-1/12 (ECMWF site, itself, is warmer than WxBell’s interpretation), but I’m hopeful it’s overdoing the SER like it has been recently. Plus, this period is still a near eternity away forecasting credibilitywise, especially holidays onward.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

I still do not see any pattern that supports major I-95 snow through mid december. Nothing will dig with this. You’re looking at light events/sliders. Still favors Great Lakes/Interior the most. 

 

Completely agree. The pattern looks extremely hostile to KU’s up the coast through at least mid-December and very likely beyond that time frame 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This is downright ugly for the SE 12/15-1/12 (ECMWF site, itself, is warmer than WxBell’s interpretation), but I’m hopeful it’s overdoing the SER.

Compared to December 2015, 2021, 2019 its still an ice box though

[BlizzardWx]

Increasing support for a temporary weakening of the PV mid month. At least enough to keep it from being too strong for now but its still going for near normal strength by January.

[BlizzardWx]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This is downright ugly for the SE 12/15-1/12 (ECMWF site, itself, is warmer than WxBell’s interpretation), but I’m hopeful it’s overdoing the SER like it has been recently. Plus, this period is still a near eternity away forecasting credibilitywise, especially holidays onward.

Dry with lots of up and down cold my way with that pattern. I'd like to see even some rain at this point. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

 

Damn whats up your ass ? So hostile.

You have trolled the shit out of my outlook since I'm not favoring 30" of snow for NYC in December. Now stand the &uck by if you don't clean up this month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

Increasing support for a temporary weakening of the PV mid month. At least enough to keep it from being too strong for now but its still going for near normal strength by January.

All I ever said...not sure why that triggered some.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

47 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Compared to December 2015, 2021, 2019 its still an ice box though

I assume you mean 2023, instead of 2019.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I assume you mean 2023, instead of 2019.

Down in the SE US Dec 2023 was not as warm as 2019.  2023 the warmth was worse across the Lakes/UW and NE

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Down in the SE US Dec 2023 was not as warm as 2019.  2023 the warmth was worse across the Lakes/UW and NE

 

8 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I assume you mean 2023, instead of 2019.

In the SE, Dec of 2019 in F was +2 to +5 vs Dec of 2023’s 0 to +3. So, 2019 was 2 warmer.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, GaWx said:

 

In the SE, Dec of 2019 in F was +2 to +5 vs Dec of 2023’s 0 to +3. So, 2019 was 2 warmer.

I feel like since 2010 just about every December down there has been warm minus 2020/2024

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I feel like since 2010 just about every December down there has been warm minus 2020/2024

Don’t forget 2022 and 2017, which were NN in the SE.

[GaWx]

 The Nov 30 mb QBO came out about as expected at -25.35, slightly lower than Oct’s -24.65:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

[brooklynwx99]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree. The pattern looks extremely hostile to KU’s up the coast through at least mid-December and very likely beyond that time frame 

to be fair, most patterns are "hostile to KUs." they're rare and require some specific features

[MJO812]

12z gfs showed warmth and now the 18z gefs flipped it .

[raindancewx]

Subsurface heat at 100-180W 0-300m down was pretty much unchanged from Oct-Nov. -0.47 in Nov, -0.41 Oct. Vastly smaller reservoir of cold water.

We're on our third or fourth advisory level snow event for the high terrain locally. November was actually around 2x normal precipitation for the Northern half of the state, so the +6-8F temps didn't really matter at elevation. Still frigid above 8,000 ft on storm days.

14 inches of snow fell at Taos Powderhorn, 11,000 feet up, since Nov 17. They'll get 6-10 of dry power in all likelihood by Thursday morning. The resorts that get 200+ inches a year look like they're doing OK so far. For those who saw me include 2022-23 in the analog group at low weight - I do think there are some periods through April with extreme precipitation events in the SW, and that wasn't really present in 2024-25 or 2013-14. But they'll be much rarer than in that winter. But the one system in late November was pretty impressive for the moisture content.

[raindancewx]

The snow pattern, the 'smiley face', ID/MT to NM/CO to Ozarks to interior New England I mentioned in October is showing up. It's a good pattern, most of the US will get a lot of snow this year, but probably not where 95% of you live. You'll see everything shift south 200-300 miles during the peak cold waves, but it won't stay that far south for periods long enough for major snows to the south of the main smiley face.

[SnowGoose69]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

12z gfs showed warmth and now the 18z gefs flipped it .

I’d be surprised if there was any significant warmup in the east given the MJO wave strength.  We’ve seen before beyond D8-10 ensembles often can show a pattern that doesn’t really resemble what the expected MJO phase will be and then once you get closer it does.  We’ve seen many maps like the above at day 15 when we have a strong wave in 3 or 4 and we know it’s going to be wrong 

[stadiumwave]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

to be fair, most patterns are "hostile to KUs." they're rare and require some specific features

Come on, dude...you know what he means. A big se ridge isn't how you get one.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Come on, dude...you know what he means. A big se ridge isn't how you get one.

who was calling for one? I don't think anybody has mentioned the risk for one... seems like light to mod events generally

my point was that saying that a pattern isn't conducive for historic storms isn't really saying all that much. you can say that about most patterns. it's like saying most football players won't make it to the NFL. it's implied