40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Why are you so confident ? You really dont see a better pattern ahead with the MJO going into the favorable phases ? Its you vs the world in that regards lol No, I do...I just don't think you will benefit much from it in December. Stop showing me Strat warming links and show me pics of snow in Central Park, or shut it. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: who are you even following? nobody reputable is calling for that Maybe you can chime into MJO Chief Wiggum about when the big snow is coming for Central Park... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Today’s MJO forecasts finally came out: GEFS: Phase 8 12/2-16 (15 days+) EPS: Phase 8 12/3-16 (14 days+) Should either of these progs verify, it would be the longest winter phase 8 in 50 years! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 25 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: I still do not see any pattern that supports major I-95 snow through mid december. Nothing will dig with this. You’re looking at light events/sliders. Still favors Great Lakes/Interior the most. Looks like clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe you can chime into MJO Chief Wiggum about when the big snow is coming for Central Park... i mean, I don't think it's deniable that the pattern looks conducive for at BN temps for most of the month. looks a lot better than it did last week with the GEFS falling flat on its face. then, we should see that pattern continue into mid-late month aside from maybe a brief warmup around the 13th or so snow is more difficult to predict, though. the northern mid-Atlantic should see chances through the month, especially after the 15th IMO you know Tony just regurgitates that stuff though lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, I do...I just don't think you will benefit much from it in December. Stop showing me Strat warming links and show me pics of snow in Central Park, or shut it. 52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe you can chime into MJO Chief Wiggum about when the big snow is coming for Central Park... Damn whats up your ass ? So hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, I don't think it's deniable that the pattern looks conducive for at BN temps for most of the month. looks a lot better than it did last week with the GEFS falling flat on its face. then, we should see that pattern continue into mid-late month aside from maybe a brief warmup around the 13th or so snow is more difficult to predict, though. the northern mid-Atlantic should see chances through the month, especially after the 15th IMO you know Tony just regurgitates that stuff though lmao From who ? And yes I agree that we should get chances once we get into 8. There should be a lag so we are looking at mid to late December for a possibly big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The Euro Weeklies have a potent mean SER/-PNA Dec 15th-Jan 11th. Though the Weeklies have over forecasted the SER recently, it’s getting increasingly likely that Dec will average a -PNA. Since 1983-4, there have been 11 -ENSO winters with a -PNA. All 11 had a +PNA in the subsequent Jan. Based on this, the odds of a +PNA for Jan averaged out are increasing. If that were to verify, the chances would be high that the Euro’s potent -PNA Jan 1-11 will be wrong. We’ll see. 12/15-21: 12/22-28: 12/29-1/4: 1/5-11: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Weeklies This is downright ugly for the SE 12/15-1/12 (ECMWF site, itself, is warmer than WxBell’s interpretation), but I’m hopeful it’s overdoing the SER like it has been recently. Plus, this period is still a near eternity away forecasting credibilitywise, especially holidays onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said: I still do not see any pattern that supports major I-95 snow through mid december. Nothing will dig with this. You’re looking at light events/sliders. Still favors Great Lakes/Interior the most. Completely agree. The pattern looks extremely hostile to KU’s up the coast through at least mid-December and very likely beyond that time frame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: This is downright ugly for the SE 12/15-1/12 (ECMWF site, itself, is warmer than WxBell’s interpretation), but I’m hopeful it’s overdoing the SER. Compared to December 2015, 2021, 2019 its still an ice box though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Increasing support for a temporary weakening of the PV mid month. At least enough to keep it from being too strong for now but its still going for near normal strength by January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: This is downright ugly for the SE 12/15-1/12 (ECMWF site, itself, is warmer than WxBell’s interpretation), but I’m hopeful it’s overdoing the SER like it has been recently. Plus, this period is still a near eternity away forecasting credibilitywise, especially holidays onward. Dry with lots of up and down cold my way with that pattern. I'd like to see even some rain at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 29 minutes ago Author Share Posted 29 minutes ago 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Damn whats up your ass ? So hostile. You have trolled the shit out of my outlook since I'm not favoring 30" of snow for NYC in December. Now stand the &uck by if you don't clean up this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 27 minutes ago Author Share Posted 27 minutes ago 38 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said: Increasing support for a temporary weakening of the PV mid month. At least enough to keep it from being too strong for now but its still going for near normal strength by January. All I ever said...not sure why that triggered some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 19 minutes ago Share Posted 19 minutes ago 47 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Compared to December 2015, 2021, 2019 its still an ice box though I assume you mean 2023, instead of 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago 5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: I assume you mean 2023, instead of 2019. Down in the SE US Dec 2023 was not as warm as 2019. 2023 the warmth was worse across the Lakes/UW and NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 7 minutes ago Share Posted 7 minutes ago 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Down in the SE US Dec 2023 was not as warm as 2019. 2023 the warmth was worse across the Lakes/UW and NE 8 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: I assume you mean 2023, instead of 2019. In the SE, Dec of 2019 in F was +2 to +5 vs Dec of 2023’s 0 to +3. So, 2019 was 2 warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted 6 minutes ago Share Posted 6 minutes ago Just now, GaWx said: In the SE, Dec of 2019 in F was +2 to +5 vs Dec of 2023’s 0 to +3. So, 2019 was 2 warmer. I feel like since 2010 just about every December down there has been warm minus 2020/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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